Tanjung Piai by-election - a loss for Pakatan?

Al Fatihah Allahyarham Md Farid Md Rafik.

Also, deepest condolences to his family.

His sudden demise has brought about a by-election for the Tanjung Piai federal constituency in Johor. The late Md Farid won the Tanjung Piai seat at the last general election (05 May 2018), defeating Wee Jeck Seng of MCA with just a majority of 524 votes in a 53,528 strong electorate.

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	∆%
	PH	Md Farid Md Rafik	21,255	47.29	+ 47.29
	BN	Wee Jeck Seng	20,731	46.12	- 10.00
	PAS	Nordin Othman	2,962	6.59	+ 6.59
Total valid votes			44,948	100.00
Total rejected ballots			841
Unreturned ballots			69
Turnout			45,858	85.67
Registered electors			53,528
Majority			524	1.17

But if we consider the combined votes for BN and PAS against Pakatan, PH would have lost to BN-PAS by a majority of 2438. T'was the wrong strategy by BN and PAS to split their votes in GE14.

Indeed, if we examined the election prior to 2018, namely, 2013 (see following table), we'd see BN had then won with a majority of 5457. In 2013 GE MCA's Wee Jeck Seng secured 56.12% of the 'turnout' votes or 25038 votes to win.

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	∆%
	BN	Wee Jeck Seng	25,038	56.12	- 11.95
	DAP	Mahdzir Ibrahim	19,581	43.88	+ 11.95
Total valid votes			44,619	100.00
Total rejected ballots			918
Unreturned ballots			85
Turnout			45,622	87.95
Registered electors			51,875
Majority			5,457	12.24

Traditionally, prior to 2018, the federal seat was seen a combat arena between MCA and DAP, with MCA winning in the 11th, 12th and 13th GE's.

However, in the 14th GE in 2018, the DAP gave way in Tanjung Piai to Mahathir's Parti Pribumi. The late Md Farid surprisingly won, though by then the overall political tide had already changed in Pakatan's favour.

With the plummeting popularity of PH since its rule for more than a year, will PH be able to win Tanjung Piai again, more so when PAS and UMNO have recently vowed to haap-chiok (cooperate)?

I personally doubt that, unless of course Dr Wan Azizah can wave her magic fan to effect real magic.

Note: Deputy of a coalition is usually the campaign director for a by or state election, but mind you, that's only a BN tradition.

Hence I reckon Pakatan will in all likelihood get a more assertive Director of Campaign for the by-election.

wakakaka 

Another point is the constituency’s breakdown by race – I'm afraid we Malaysians can't run away from racial issues, especially in an election and not when Mahathir is still around -  57% of Tanjung Piai constituents are Malays, whilst 42% are Chinese with 1% Indians.

It's the type of constituency whose racial composition was favoured/loved by Mahathir in his earlier reign (1981 to 2003), where if Malay voters split their support between PAS and UMNO, Mahathir would frighten the sh*t out of the 'unwitting kingmaker' Chinese into voting for his previous far more racist (than PAS) party, UMNO.

Unavoidably and inevitably, Mahathir will again demand the seat for his Parti Pribumi.

On the BN side, though Wee Jeck Seng (MCA) has offered hikself to defend the traditionally MCA held seat (2004 to 2013), I doubt he will get another chance to contest.

The racial composition of the constituents is likely to see a candidate from UMNO, especially as the BN analysts will argue that the 42% Chinese (or most of them) in Tanjung Piai will likely vote PH, even against their political grain for a Parti Pribumi candidate a la the earlier pattern of Mahathir-scaring-their-pants-off again. No doubt Lim KS will help, wakakaka.

BN (UMNO) will have to work on the basis of depending principally on the 57% Malay votes and thus an UMNO candidate.

Mind you, BN (UMNO) won't find the election a walk-over and will certainly welcome any non-Malay support, wakakaka. I reckon it may play the same 'Mahathir sh*t-scaring game' by getting MCA and MIC to remind Chinese and Indian voters of the Khat and Lynas-Bukit Merah kerbau.

What about the 'bossku' icon? Will he campaign for UMNO too, or will he be told politely to stay below the radar? Wakakaka.

wakakaka 

I wonder too about some unhappy DAP members in Johor who may 'play mahjong' throughout the campaign and even on election day, wakakaka. Whilst a PH loss in Tanjung Piai won't overturn the Pakatan government, it will be bad for PH coalition morale.

The ball is round but today kaytee predicts a likely BN win, unless some controversy were to occur in BN's disadvantage, which can with Mahathir now in power again, wakakaka.