PH has hard decision to make on fielding MCA or Umno candidate: Analysts
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Former Johor mentri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin’s stature could swing some votes to BN |
PETALING JAYA: With the Tanjung Piai parliamentary seat in Johor falling vacant following the death of its incumbent Datuk Dr Md Farid Md Rafik, a huge dilemma now faces the Opposition.
Do they allow MCA to contest the seat – as done traditionally – or should it be given to Umno, now supposedly rejuvenated following the formalisation of ties with PAS?
MCA had contested the seat in all the general elections since it was introduced in 2004, winning all but the last polls. MCA’s Datuk Seri Wee Jeck Seng, who lost the seat to Md Farid, had said he was ready to give it another shot, having won in 2008 and 2013.
Party deputy president Datuk Mah Hang Soon said MCA was ready to wrest the seat from Pakatan Harapan (PH), and that it would be “unthinkable” if it was not given the chance.
However, Tanjung Piai Umno division chief Jefridin Atan blames the MCA for Barisan Nasional’s (BN) defeat by a mere 524 votes (a 1.17% margin) the last time out, claiming MCA had refused to give up the seat.
Political analysts believe BN’s top leadership now has a tough decision to make, that could make or break their chance there.
Merdeka Centre programme director Ibrahim Suffian said with Umno’s recent pact with PAS, it would be hard for them to win Chinese support in Tanjung Piai, which makes up about 42% of the electorate, if the candidate is from Umno.
The Malays make up the majority with about 57%, with the remaining 1% consisting of Indians.
“Umno may be able to obtain more Malay votes, but Chinese votes would most likely decrease. So the question is, how much of the Malay support can Umno garner?”
Ibrahim said even with a strong Umno candidate, Chinese voters would be the kingmaker there, with the Malay votes set to be split between BN and PH.
He said should an MCA candidate be placed instead, there was a possibility that more Malay voters, particularly fence sitters, would opt for PH’s Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia.
On the other hand, Universiti Utara Malaysia’s Prof Dr Mohd Azizuddin Mohd Sani believes that a candidate of former Johor mentri besar Datuk Seri Mohamed Khaled Nordin’s (pix) stature could swing some votes to BN.
“BN can’t rely on Chinese support. They still seem to be supporting PH. Umno can try to place someone with seniority and appealing to the Malay voters instead, someone with a stature that may even pull some Chinese support.
“Khaled will be a good candidate. But this again can affect whatever is left in Umno’s relationship with MCA, and is subject to MCA’s agreement,” he said. — Bernama.
For a start, the Sun Daily has eff-ed up its headlines for this article in saying 'PH has hard decision to make on fielding MCA or Umno candidate' - don't you think it should be BN rather than PH? Wakakaka.
Indeed Tanjung Piai is for BN to win but only how? Recall I did write:
BN (UMNO) will have to work on the basis of depending principally on the 57% Malay votes and thus an UMNO candidate.
BN (UMNO) will have to work on the basis of depending principally on the 57% Malay votes and thus an UMNO candidate.
Mind you, BN (UMNO) won't find the election a walk-over and will certainly welcome any non-Malay support, wakakaka. I reckon it may play the same 'Mahathir sh*t-scaring game' by getting MCA and MIC to remind Chinese and Indian voters of the Khat and Lynas-Bukit Merah kerbau.
Yes, it seems that the pesky, cute but ever present Chinese Malaysians may continue to play the Kingmaker's role, ironically at the courtesy of Mahathir's earlier regime's role in gerrymandering to achieve his much preferred 60:40-ish racial composition of electorates.
Mamak then didn't trust the more-independent-minded Melayus (who could frightfully opt for PAS), but he was more confident of frightening the sh*ts out of the more economically-minded Cinapeks into voting BN for a stable economy in the country notwithstanding those Cinapeks would only receive limited and 2nd Class benefits.
To the Chinese, 'half a loaf was better than a whole bunch of capati' though they ate plenty of the latter, wakakaka.
Some Malay political analysts-observers have said that with the PAS-UMNO 'marriage' the Chinese voters will be more fearful of the newest coalition and suggested that a MCA man be nominated as the candidate for the by-election in Tanjung Piai to show the PAS-UMNO, notwithstanding its Malay-Muslim-ness, is still a multi-racial BN.
I did not mention that in my earlier post for the reason I am a Chinese blogger and thus would be less likely to be believed. But since Malays have raised the issue, I think a MCA candidate is quite winnable.
The only problem with BN standing a MCA person in the by-election is there are more than a few PAS and UMNO ambitious members in Tanjung Piai who may not support the strategic picture but rather the tactical one, namely, to stand in Tanjung Piai themselves (individually of course, wakakaka).
And former Johor MB Khaled Nordin has been sending cryptic messages/statements but all pointing to his own self as the BEST candidate for the by-election outside of racial considerations.
Khaled has not been wrong in self-nominating his good self, but as I mentioned, while putting a MCA man to stand in the by-election is more risky for BN but if successful, the win by MCA will be a strategic boon as Chinese voters will be endeared more to the BN coalition despite a PAS in it.
An UMNO candidate is a more sure win but has less strategic value because the Chinese voters in Peninsula and not just Tanjung Piai, much needed by BN for support in GE15, won't be adequately convinced of the UMNO-PAS-MCA-MIC coalition's better-value-for-money (or vote).
Whether the Tanjung Piai by-election shall be a Strategic or Tactical Win, BN has to decide carefully.
To assuage the fears of Merdeka Centre programme director Ibrahim Suffian, that the Chinese voters are more supportive of Pakatan, former Malaysian Ambassador Dennis Ignatius wrote in Free Malaysia Today (extracts only):
To the Chinese, 'half a loaf was better than a whole bunch of capati' though they ate plenty of the latter, wakakaka.
Some Malay political analysts-observers have said that with the PAS-UMNO 'marriage' the Chinese voters will be more fearful of the newest coalition and suggested that a MCA man be nominated as the candidate for the by-election in Tanjung Piai to show the PAS-UMNO, notwithstanding its Malay-Muslim-ness, is still a multi-racial BN.
I did not mention that in my earlier post for the reason I am a Chinese blogger and thus would be less likely to be believed. But since Malays have raised the issue, I think a MCA candidate is quite winnable.
The only problem with BN standing a MCA person in the by-election is there are more than a few PAS and UMNO ambitious members in Tanjung Piai who may not support the strategic picture but rather the tactical one, namely, to stand in Tanjung Piai themselves (individually of course, wakakaka).
And former Johor MB Khaled Nordin has been sending cryptic messages/statements but all pointing to his own self as the BEST candidate for the by-election outside of racial considerations.
Khaled has not been wrong in self-nominating his good self, but as I mentioned, while putting a MCA man to stand in the by-election is more risky for BN but if successful, the win by MCA will be a strategic boon as Chinese voters will be endeared more to the BN coalition despite a PAS in it.
An UMNO candidate is a more sure win but has less strategic value because the Chinese voters in Peninsula and not just Tanjung Piai, much needed by BN for support in GE15, won't be adequately convinced of the UMNO-PAS-MCA-MIC coalition's better-value-for-money (or vote).
Whether the Tanjung Piai by-election shall be a Strategic or Tactical Win, BN has to decide carefully.
To assuage the fears of Merdeka Centre programme director Ibrahim Suffian, that the Chinese voters are more supportive of Pakatan, former Malaysian Ambassador Dennis Ignatius wrote in Free Malaysia Today (extracts only):
Where, for example, is the promised reform of our education system? What happened to all that talk about reining in Jakim? Why are so many corrupt politicians (and their cronies) still running free? What has become of all those manifesto promises they made? How is it that the cabinet prioritises the interests of a foreign company like Lynas over the health of Malaysians and our environment? Why are they still protecting a fugitive from India despite the fact the Prime Minister himself says he is divisive and has overstepped his obligations as a permanent resident?
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To obsessively and obdurately protect Zakir Naik, Mahathir even insulted India's legal system, courts, judges and PM Modi, on top of eff-ing up poor Teresa Kok's valiant but futile efforts in propping up palm oil sales to India with less import tax |
As well, when are they going to introduce policies and programmes that make a real difference to the B40 group? Why do they seem more interested in finding foreign buyers for unsold luxury condos than in building more affordable homes for less fortunate Malaysians? Why are they still dragging their feet on a credible investigation into enforced disappearances, or continuing to deport asylum seekers, or denying justice to the family of Teoh Beng Hock?
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Lim Kit Siang with MACC strategic communications director Rohaizad Yaakob (centre) and other opposition leaders at the MACC Office in Putrajaya, August 6, 2015. — Picture by Yusof Mat Isa what a fCking hypocrite and traitor to Teoh Beng hock's family and his memory and just one lousy year after his pathetic pompous speech vowing: Beng Hock’s death would be “in vain” if firstly, his killers remain free and unpunished; and secondly, the MACC is not held responsible and liable for his death and instead allowed to “go to great lengths” to participate in a “cover-up” of the actual causes and circumstances of Beng Hock’s death at the TBH RCI, with MACC officers telling “lies after lies” at the RCI. I call on Malaysians to stand for justice and to make a commitment that they will not rest until the “cover-up” of Teoh Beng Hock’s criminal and senseless murder is exposed and the killers, including MACC, are brought to justice |
And when are they going to realise that voters are sick and tired of the infighting that has racked PH and its component parties. Don’t they realise that the succession issue has become a huge distraction? Whether they like it or not, ministers like Azmin Ali and Zuraida Kamaruddin should respect the succession agreement and start working together with Anwar Ibrahim for the good of the country. If they can no longer work with him, they should just leave so the rest of the coalition can get on with the task of fulfilling the expectations of the people.
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Unlike 'someone', he likes it in the back Wakakaka |
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like Mokhzani, she loves expensive cars |
So there you have it, Suffian Ibrahim - the Chinese may either desert Pakatan especially if the candidate is from Mahathir's Parti PRIBUMI or play mahjong on election day, or even (omigosh) vote for BN.
Dennis Ignatius also believes that a BN win in Tanjung Piai will be a rude awakening for PH, as the necessary required tonic for the pandai Tok-Kok Capati gang to return to its original path of reforms, as it had promised in its manifesto (and hopefully to kick the blardy Evil Old Man out before he does further damage to Malaysia's diminishing resources and reputation).
Amin, Amen, Hallelujah, Om Shanti Shanti Shanti, Om Mani Padme Hum, and May the Force be with you.
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