Friday, August 10, 2018

Proton-isation - how to entertain an old man's obsession expensively

Malaysiakini's Why any version of Proton 2.0 will fail

by P Gunasegaram (extracts):


To understand why it won’t work, we need to understand what Mahathir’s concept of a Malaysian car is. He is not talking about a technology partnership, he is talking about a Malaysian car - developed eventually by Malaysians to be competitive worldwide.

For 35 years, Proton tried and could not do it because it produced lousy, substandard cars when it tried to go on its own without technology partners. These cars could not compete internationally even when prices were subsidised by domestic sales because of poor quality. They sold locally only because of massive tariff protection.

They never got scale because the technology needed to make good cars was non-existent. It’s not about race or bumiputera privileges - nowhere within Malaysia did we have anything near cutting-edge technology when it came to cars. We still don’t and in 35 years, the market is a helluva lot more competitive.


Perodua, the second major national car project, succeeded financially because they produced quality cars with a good technology partner throughout, Daihatsu of Japan. But this is basically a manufacturing operation for Daihatsu, which enjoys tariff protection and access to the Malaysian market.

It is of rather dubious benefit to Malaysia as a whole because Malaysia could have imported similar cars much more cheaply from anywhere in the world and offered its populace lower prices and better quality, and safer products.

Instead Mahathir basically stuffed inefficient, unreliable and even unsafe cars down the throats of Malaysians, who with a terribly inefficient public transport system, then spent more than they could afford on cars; their most conspicuous consumption after houses. Mahathir caused needless hardship to millions of Malaysians, who could have subsidised the national car industry to the tune of at least RM360 billion over the years - and that’s no exaggeration.

This is based on estimated sales of some 12 million vehicles between 1985 and 2016 of which some four million vehicles sold were Protons. I have estimated, conservatively, that the average price per vehicle was RM30,000 higher because of protective barriers. Multiply this by 12 million vehicles for RM360 billion. You may disagree with the exact figure but there can be little doubt that the order of magnitude is in the hundreds of billions of ringgit.


For instance, take the 2018 prices of two vehicles in the US (where taxes on cars are low or zero) and compare those to Malaysia. The first is a Honda Civic, priced at RM75,760 in the US but RM116,733 here for a similar model. This is RM40,973 or 54% higher. For a BMW 530e, the respective prices are RM210,600 and RM343,000 - RM132,400 or 63% higher! And this in a country which has a per capita income one-fifth of that of the US.

If we use the RM360 billion burden Malaysians have borne, Proton and the national car projects have already cost the country and the rakyat 7.2 times the likely maximum loss at 1MDB estimated at RM50 billion. Is that not enough reason to nix this crazy idea?

Ministers, why no guts?

But for that we need ministers who have guts, who must rise up and voice the dissatisfaction they have over the revival of yet another national car project. But instead, there is defence of Mahathir’s plan. How sad! How dangerous!


chai chai just play your sudoku and act dunno

Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Ong Kian Ming said the new project won’t be reboot of Proton but will instead go in the direction of energy efficient vehicles. Pray tell us does that mean we are going into the manufacture of EEVs? Does that mean EEVs will become more expensive?

Of course they will, using first the infancy stage argument and assuring us they will be competitive later, for the imposition of punitive tariffs on EEVs from overseas. When after 35 years we could not manufacture conventional cars more efficiently, how can we possibly manufacture EEVs more efficiently now or ever? What do we have now that we did not have earlier?

Instead of adding fuel to Mahathir’s fire of going back to some version of Proton, our ministers, so brave and full of gumption before GE14, are now telling the new emperor he has clothes on when he is absolutely naked when it comes to Proton and a new car project.

Why no guts, ministers? Especially when many of you had so strongly criticised Proton before? Do you honestly think that Mahathir will miraculously restore a rotten car industry to profitability or do you not care that billions more are going to be poured into a wasteful project, which has already wasted over seven times the wastage at 1MDB? Don’t you have an obligation to the country to stop this project?


ploton velly good but I dlive mahchedee

Remember it’s not the project cost that counts, it’s the money that Malaysians pay extra every day when they purchase a car, money that goes to subsidise the profit and bear the losses of our national car industry.

9 comments:

  1. 1st question - did mamak ever pronounce that ProTiga would be implemented wholesally as a copy of failed Proton model?

    R these his current thought on ProTiga:

    " He is not talking about a technology partnership, he is talking about a Malaysian car - developed eventually by Malaysians to be competitive worldwide."

    ????

    Or u just cut&paste from mamak's Proton initialisation speech years ago?

    2nd question - in Industry4.0, do we still need the same prerequisites - ie:

    - the technology needed to make good cars was non-existent.

    - did we have anything near cutting-edge technology when it came to cars.

    - a good technology partner

    - dubious benefit to Malaysia as a whole because Malaysia could have imported similar cars much more cheaply from anywhere in the world and offered its populace lower prices and better quality, and safer products.

    to start an industry?

    Look no further than Tesla!

    - to make good cars one needs good tech savvy/diligent people, coupled with effective management system.

    R u saying besides those good-for-nothing ketuanan freaks, bolihland has no other competent people?

    - Required cutting edge technologies can be sourced diligently from anywhere.

    Hence Tesla's tech concept is from Greece, not even an eev powerhouse!

    - a good technology partner is essential, as has been proven many times over. & there r many such partners in the world, not necessarily have to come from those well-established known sources.

    - who say the ProTiga must be protected?

    U r just using the same Proton marketing model as a guild!

    What if ProTiga is a private buccaneering venture based on pure risk.

    Zero govt financial inputs but with standard industrial pioneer incentives.

    M'sia has no real risk-takers with big ideas?

    Think Tony of AirAsia, Anthony of Grab & Tan of Broadcom.

    Who say ProTiga must be priced cheaply to survive?

    Tesla is NOT cheap vis-a-vis other competition models, yet there r willing buyers, attracted by its technologies & green environment inputs!

    Besides, as a private enterprise, stuffing inefficient, unreliable and even unsafe cars down the throats of Malaysians will definitely spelling the death March of the venture. No ANY risk-takers will willingly put their money & effort down this way. Except the old Proton!

    Indeed, Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Ong Kian Ming said the new project WON'T be reboot of Proton but will instead go in the direction of energy efficient vehicles.

    This a fruit for deep thought!

    U want advancements in life & yet still sticking to the old & well tested!

    How stupid can u be?

    Know Nokia?

    From a timber lumbering outfit to toilet paper manufacturer (expanding into related industries), to mobile phone powerhouse (venturing into unknown via creative destruction), to now a minor part of her once mighty empire (too complacency to take risks in new areas).

    Nokia's story of been waylaid by new industrial developments has a very similar tone to those bolihland tempurung dwellers of claiming doing what's the best & not willing to be destructively creative in business ventures!

    Shots to yr heart's content when ProTiga IS a image copy of the old Proton.

    Mamak might be old but he definitely know how foolishly one can be by trying the same experiment over & over again & expecting different result!

    Otherwise, look at this proposal open-heartedly. Something good might comes out of it!

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    Replies
    1. dun be so presumptuous, mahathir clear wan the national car as a catalyst for the growth of engineering know-how and capabilities google what he said, not what u think he will say. know the diff?

      Delete
    2. Presumptuous?

      Bloody rd bodoh sombong!

      Wait & see lah!

      Doing the same experiment over & over again & expecting different results!

      Only tempurung dweller, like u, would insist as in doing the safe & same old way to seek for new wealth & know-how!

      Wakakakaka…

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    3. i never claim do it the old way, i reject whatever way wrt car, can u tell that to mahathir? lks lge okm r now turned into running dog, so the rakyat have to count on ourselves to say no to that ignorant mahathir. yr 4.0 is a delusion that cant happen in a land which fear of portrait n worry abt what people wear. be realistic, boy.


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    4. Delusional fart!

      U NEVER claim doing ProTiga the old way?

      U reject whatever way wrt car!

      So, that definitely confirm my understanding of u as a tempurung dweller reminiscing whatever ways (sic… usually the old & comfortable ones) to continue yr life!

      Fine with me, iff u jerk off yr ways confining to yrelf! Thus, continue yr tempurung dream lah.

      Before u fart again about my takes would involve sufferings to the nth generations of m'sians, I suggest u wake up from yr sleep, clear yr mind from all the residual trashes from yr dream & rereading my takes.

      Real rd!

      BTW, u r showing yr true mannerism of calling people, who r not in agreement with u NAMES - w/o clear justification like I did.

      Industry 4.0 is a delusion that cant happen to a group of risk aversion oldtimers, in a land which fear of portrait n worry abt what people wear.

      Old habits hard to change, especially with zombieic doctrines blindly accepted & practised!

      But, that DOESN'T stop adventuring m'sians to make successes out from this zombieic environment. Again, think Grab, Broadcom. They r the pioneers of the initial phase of Ind4.0 where locationality IS blurred.

      U obviously know f*ck about industry evolution/development. Definitely has zilch experience in business world, thus that continuous risk aversion in ONLY want to engaging inherited dying businesses of the old.

      Yes, I'm a VERY realistic boy. NOW, u know ke?

      While I don't understand dinosaur, like u, still exists in this time & age. That meteorite didn't do a clean job le!

      Delete
    5. can u learn how to stick to topic? me or the article is referring to mahathir car, not yr irrelevant, off topic n yr delusion. private venture has nothing much to do with us, we r talking abt mahathir ignorant that may cost us billions. unless u could establish a link between mahathir ignorant n yr delusion, or else I am like debating with a braggart that have comprehension problem to read simple english, which perhaps is a fact wakaka.

      Delete
    6. Wow……!!!

      Have u been taken lessons from kt, or that mom sifu of his in argument twisting?

      Reread & reread lah, only then perhaps u can see the links & logic!

      To paraphrase yr idiotic rant - what did ProTiga's proposal has to do with mahathir's ignorant that may cost us billions?

      Has mamak mentioned/said anything about doing the ProTiga the old Proton way?

      My link is SIMPLE - ProTiga can be implemented vis-a-vis Ind 4.0 model. PERIOD.

      Wakakakaka… wrt comprehension problem to read simple english, let's leave it to the readers lah!

      Why r u playing the trade of kt?

      Mmmmm…… could be from the same school of word twisting le.

      Delete
  2. Everyone knows it will just be a dream and showing compassion for an old man's dream by keeping quiet.

    It's not going to be to anyone's gain or loss by going against his dreams when he can hardly see it thru during his reign.

    Also must show compassion to Ktemoc for repetitive posting of the same subject cos it all add up to meet his KPI.

    Wakakakakakakakkaakaka

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  3. We traded a PM who was pushing for more & efficient public transportation, for a ex-PM who pushed us his National Car agenda. Everyone has to pay extra because of him, except for himself, his families, and his cronies.

    Malaysians, you have voted for this.

    ReplyDelete