Thursday, January 31, 2019

Semenyih by-elections March 2019

Stats here are all rounded up for convenient reading - I've also used percentiles rather than actual numer of votes as this provides a better comparison between the 2013 GE and 2018 GE since voter population of the Seminyih constituency would have grown/increased between 2013 and 2018:

In last year's general election (GE14), Pribumi (PPBM) contesting under PH logo of PKR) won 51% of the votes in Semenyih.

But if UMNO and PAS were to collaborate (which doesn't automatically or necessary translate into total combination of their 2018 votes), the UMNO candidate participating in the by-election may theoretically win 46 - 47% of the votes.

Then there is Die-Hard Arutchelvan, who obtained about 3% in the last GE, mentioning he may compete again.

With a constituency of 70% Malays, 17% Chinese and 13% Indians, the nons will be the 'kingmaker' again, a situation purported planned by Mahathir during his earlier PM-regime (1981 - 2003). The old man had allowed for a split in Malay votes, to wit, between his then-UMNO and archfoe PAS, and for the nons to back UMNO out of fear of a hudud-bent PAS, wakakaka (that's why he banned Israel form competing in a supposed to-be-held by Malaysia sporting event.

Selangor state election, 2018 
PHBakhtiar Mohd Nor23,42850.76+ 14.84
BNJohan Abd Aziz14,46431.34- 17.55
PASMad Shahmiour Mat Kosim6,96615.09+ 15.09
PSMArutchelvan Subramaniams1,2932.80- 12.39
Total valid votes46,151100.00
Total rejected ballots366
Unreturned ballots55
Registered electors53,257
PH gain from BN

Semenyih has 53,257 voters with 69.4% of them Malays, 17.2% Chinese, 13.3% Indians and 0.01% (Other races).

The 2013 General Election saw Johan triumph with a 4,747-vote majority against PKR's Hamidi A. Hasan (13,1650 and Arutchelvan (5,568).

Arutchelvan had lost to Johan by merely 1,140 votes in the 2008 General Election.

Selangor state election, 2013 
BNJohan Abd Aziz17,92248.89- 3.70
PKRHamidi A. Hasan13,16535.92- 11.49
PSMArutchelvan Subramaniams5,56815.19+ 15.19
Total valid votes36,655100.00
Total rejected ballots701
Unreturned ballots216
Registered electors42,344
BN holdSwing

In 2018, a political wave changed the government for the first time, alhough technically Malaysia still has the same old UMNO-ish PM in Mahathir so in reality no change to the old racism and Pribumi dominace in PH a la UMNO dominance in BN.

That same wave saw Pribumi (contesting under PKR logo) increasing its 2013's 36% (by the actual PKR) to 2018's 51% whilst respectively UMNO went (2013 to 2018) from 49% to 31% and PAS contesting only in 2018 seized 16%.

OTOH, poor Arutchelvan suffered a loss of 12%, from 2013's 15% to 2018's 3%.

On the basis of the 2018 GE result, Pribumi should win in the coming March by-election as it has a handsome 51% share of the votes won last year. But a few factors need to be taken into considerations, namely:

(a) the Cameron Highlands by-election saw, as shown by Bridget Welsh in MKINI's ‘Old Malaysia’ in Cameron Highlands, the Malays swinging to BN-UMNO by over 31.5%.

One can argue that the Malays in Semenyih are not Heartland/FELDA Melayu and thus won't swing so much even if they swing.

But what if the Malays in Semenyih were to swing by just 10%? Based on 2018 stats, that is equivalent to roughly 3000 votes, which is enough for UMNO to win.

With Arutchelvan competing, this time under a Pakatan with diminished lustre and thus probably under better auspices for PSM, he may drag away more votes from Pakatan.

As for the Chinese 'kingmakers', remember, above stats were based on the 2018 GE turnout of 87.45%. Apa lagi Cina bolih buat?


  1. " Malays swinging to BN-UMNO by over 31.5%"
    Incorrect reading of the overall data. Cameron Highlands, the overall swing of the BN + PAS votebank was nearly zero.

  2. don't waste your time sharing all these stats to look clever, selangor ain't gonna collapse even if they lose but I hope they lose, just to remind the gomen not to fog with the voters when it comes to making promises

    1. Confucius said "A picture is worth a thousand words"

      When you become Confucius I will listen to you

  3. No amount of stats will be able to gauge the voter's swing and sentiment. It's a totally different environment now in New Malaysia.

    After 8 months of lacklustre leadership in PH Govt., a lot depends on who are the candidates selected. Most voters will now based their voting on who can be a leader when voted in rather than just another mediocre Assemblyman or MP.

    PSM better not start to have wet dreams to contest again so typical of the party's leadership. They will instead lose more favor with the PH parties besides their deposits.

    My bet is if another ex-police or serviceman with good records during service are selected by either BN or PH, may win again in this current scenario when party symbol or racial, religious rhetoric are just not going to win over the voters to vote them in because of the "Semua lebih kurang serupa" syndrome.