US-China relations risk long, deep freeze over Taiwan, say experts
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi (left) attends a meeting with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen at the presidential office in Taipei August 3, 2022. — Handout by Taiwan Presidential Office via Reuters
Saturday, 06 Aug 2022 7:31 AM MYT
WASHINGTON, Aug 6 — The scale of China’s military and political response to a visit to Taiwan by the top US lawmaker suggests the latest downturn in relations between the two superpowers could be deep and long-lasting, analysts say.
Despite the White House’s best efforts to downplay the visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Beijing ordered large scale naval and air force exercises around the island, fired 11 ballistic missiles in nearby waters, and suspended cooperation with Washington on military relations, climate change and law enforcement.
President Joe Biden’s administration denied there was any crisis, but experts say the tensions over Taiwan have risen to their highest level in nearly 30 years with an elevated risk of military conflict.
“The relationship is in a very bad place right now” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund.
Glaser called Pelosi’s trip ill-timed and said the consequences are still not fully known.
But the suspension yesterday of bilateral military and maritime dialogue while China continues its military exercises was “particularly worrisome,” she said.
“We don’t know what else they will do,” she said. “We just don’t know if this is just a temporary thing.”
Provocative’ military exercises
The White House yesterday rejected Beijing’s call for Washington to defuse the situation, having already labeled China’s actions as “manufactured.” “The Chinese can go a long way to taking the tensions down simply by stopping these provocative military exercises and ending the rhetoric,” said spokesman John Kirby.
On Thursday he said that China was seeking to alter the decades-old situation in which Taiwan was permitted to grow into a prosperous, self-ruled island supported by the United States even as Beijing adamantly claimed it as a part of China.
“We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side,” Kirby said.
John Culver, a former CIA Asia analyst, said in a discussion Thursday hosted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, that China’s main purpose with its military exercises was to change that status quo.
“I think that this is the new normal,” Culver said.
“The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker’s visit.” Beijing’s next steps are unknown, but if it persists with or widens military exercises, or starts flying aircraft over Taiwan, “then that raises this definition of a new normal.” China has at its disposal a “spectrum of diplomatic, economic, information and cyber (fields) in which to alter the status quo,” he said, adding that the changes could be significant “for the longer-term trajectory” of cross-strait and US relations.
Despite the White House’s best efforts to downplay the visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Beijing ordered large scale naval and air force exercises around the island, fired 11 ballistic missiles in nearby waters, and suspended cooperation with Washington on military relations, climate change and law enforcement. — AFP pic
Saturday, 06 Aug 2022 7:31 AM MYT
WASHINGTON, Aug 6 — The scale of China’s military and political response to a visit to Taiwan by the top US lawmaker suggests the latest downturn in relations between the two superpowers could be deep and long-lasting, analysts say.
Despite the White House’s best efforts to downplay the visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Beijing ordered large scale naval and air force exercises around the island, fired 11 ballistic missiles in nearby waters, and suspended cooperation with Washington on military relations, climate change and law enforcement.
President Joe Biden’s administration denied there was any crisis, but experts say the tensions over Taiwan have risen to their highest level in nearly 30 years with an elevated risk of military conflict.
“The relationship is in a very bad place right now” said Bonnie Glaser, a China expert at the German Marshall Fund.
Glaser called Pelosi’s trip ill-timed and said the consequences are still not fully known.
But the suspension yesterday of bilateral military and maritime dialogue while China continues its military exercises was “particularly worrisome,” she said.
“We don’t know what else they will do,” she said. “We just don’t know if this is just a temporary thing.”
Provocative’ military exercises
The White House yesterday rejected Beijing’s call for Washington to defuse the situation, having already labeled China’s actions as “manufactured.” “The Chinese can go a long way to taking the tensions down simply by stopping these provocative military exercises and ending the rhetoric,” said spokesman John Kirby.
On Thursday he said that China was seeking to alter the decades-old situation in which Taiwan was permitted to grow into a prosperous, self-ruled island supported by the United States even as Beijing adamantly claimed it as a part of China.
“We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side,” Kirby said.
John Culver, a former CIA Asia analyst, said in a discussion Thursday hosted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, that China’s main purpose with its military exercises was to change that status quo.
“I think that this is the new normal,” Culver said.
“The Chinese want to show... that a line has been crossed by the speaker’s visit.” Beijing’s next steps are unknown, but if it persists with or widens military exercises, or starts flying aircraft over Taiwan, “then that raises this definition of a new normal.” China has at its disposal a “spectrum of diplomatic, economic, information and cyber (fields) in which to alter the status quo,” he said, adding that the changes could be significant “for the longer-term trajectory” of cross-strait and US relations.
Despite the White House’s best efforts to downplay the visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Beijing ordered large scale naval and air force exercises around the island, fired 11 ballistic missiles in nearby waters, and suspended cooperation with Washington on military relations, climate change and law enforcement. — AFP pic
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