Tuesday, August 30, 2022

BN win less likely the longer GE15 delayed, says analyst

BN win less likely the longer GE15 delayed, says analyst

Najib Razak’s imprisonment, Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s criminal trials and the troubled RM9 billion LCS project are seen as stumbling blocks for Barisan Nasional. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional’s chances at the 15th general election will not be affected even if Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional fail to forge an alliance, an analyst said.

Rather, the coalition was less likely to win if the nationwide polls were delayed, Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said.

He said the slim chance of PH and PN cooperating had no bearing on BN’s electoral prospects given that Najib Razak’s incarceration, BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s ongoing court case and the troubled RM9 billion littoral combat ship (LCS) project presented a bigger stumbling block for the coalition.

“BN is quickly losing its advantage and momentum gained from recent state elections,” he told FMT.

“Najib’s imprisonment, Zahid’s court cases and the LCS scandal are weakening the coalition’s support.”

Azmil was commenting on whether PH and PN’s failure to cooperate would give BN an advantage in GE15.

Yesterday, PKR deputy president Rafizi Ramli said PH would not cooperate with PN in GE15.

PN chairman Muhyiddin Yassin had said during the coalition’s convention on Saturday that it was open to the idea of teaming up with other parties to face BN in GE15 as it would be difficult to defeat “the main enemy” in multi-cornered fights.

Azmil said PN was likely to lose out more than PH if the two coalitions failed to cooperate, as PH had a solid base of supporters in urban and semi-urban areas while PN, namely Bersatu and PAS, had to face multi-cornered contests in Malay-majority areas against Umno.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) associate professor Anantha Raman Govindasamy said BN continued to have a slight edge over its rivals as seen in the recent state elections.

“PN and PH failed to galvanise the support of semi-rural and rural Malays, whose votes are crucial,” he said. “While PH can win in urban seats, it will face a difficult time competing against Umno in semi rural and rural areas.”

Anantha added that BN, PH and PN all had their loyal supporters whose votes could be counted on, whether the election was held this year or next year. How each coalition sought to garner the support of new voters and fence sitters would ultimately decide the winners, he said.

“While BN has a slight advantage now, things can change very quickly in an election.”

Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is an Umno vice-president, has remained evasive on whether GE15 will be brought forward.

The election date had been widely speculated to be as early as November, fuelled by the government’s announcement that the 2023 budget would be tabled on Oct 7, three weeks earlier than previously scheduled.

Parliament’s term ends next July and the general election must be held by Sept 16 next year, but some Umno leaders have pressed for it to be called this year following convincing BN victories in recent state elections.


  1. Moo was the Prime Mover behind the Langkah Sheraton. Mahathir being a pupeteer behind the scenes. The photos of a beaming Moo leaving the Sheraton that fateful night says it all.

    Anwar has to be silly to be cooperating with Moo again.

  2. In the Grand scheme of things , the amount of money lost in LCS is peanuts......but it is a good poster boy of everything that is wrong with BN as the ruling government party.

    And there is no indication BN/UMNO has learnt it's lesson or repented.