Expect 20,000 cases a day in next 2 weeks, warns virologist
Dr Kumitaa Theva Das says a higher death rate is also expected with the health system pushed to its brink.
GEORGE TOWN: A virologist has warned that the daily Covid-19 infections could double up to nearly 20,000 a day within the next two weeks, given the rising number of cases caused by the more infectious Delta variant.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Dr Kumitaa Theva Das said based on reported data, the Delta variant was close to overtaking other variants.
Kumitaa said the number of deaths was also likely to hit 200 a day, as the health system was pushed to its brink.
However, she said the new variant was not more dangerous compared to the others, but more deaths would occur when the healthcare system was under pressure.
GEORGE TOWN: A virologist has warned that the daily Covid-19 infections could double up to nearly 20,000 a day within the next two weeks, given the rising number of cases caused by the more infectious Delta variant.
Universiti Sains Malaysia’s Dr Kumitaa Theva Das said based on reported data, the Delta variant was close to overtaking other variants.
Kumitaa said the number of deaths was also likely to hit 200 a day, as the health system was pushed to its brink.
However, she said the new variant was not more dangerous compared to the others, but more deaths would occur when the healthcare system was under pressure.
Dr Kumitaa Theva Das.
“New variants rarely become more dangerous because they rely on humans to live,” she told FMT.
“But they do evolve to transmit quicker, which is what we are seeing now. We will see a higher number of deaths when the healthcare system is unable to cope,” she said.
Based on health ministry data, there were 195 Beta variant cases and 67 Delta cases as of Monday. However, 48 Beta cases and 27 Delta cases were reported yesterday.
Kumitaa said while the Beta numbers were higher now, Delta spreads at a more rapid rate. She said a Beta-variant virus would be able to replicate five cases in four days, but the Delta variant would take just one day to create five new cases.
She said that based on the infectivity rate of 1.14 as of yesterday, the virus was spreading at an exponential rate, and the number would go up with more positive cases detected.
Based on yesterday’s 11,000-odd positive cases, she said, new infections could be that number multiplied by 1.14 daily.
Kumitaa said the R0 numbers change with place and time and are used to predict whether a particular disease is spreading, levelling or diminishing. Numbers below 1 would put the virus in decline until it dies out.
She said the prevalent Delta strain was highly infectious, as data from 64 countries showed that a person with that strain had a 97% chance of infecting others in comparison to the older strains. If the previous virus was transmitting from one person to two, the Delta variant would transmit to four people.
In view of the rise in cases, she said, they could use saliva self-testing kits, which were easy to use at home, in hotspots and vaccinations need to be ramped up.
She also called for quicker isolation of those testing positive. “If there are no proper areas for Covid positive people to be isolated, then that defeats the purpose of mass testing.”
She also said wastewater testing could be carried out in low prevalence areas, which enables the early detection of Covid-19 cases within a community.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has introduced an in-depth guide on how to utilise the sewer samples as an indication of Covid-19 case growth.
“New variants rarely become more dangerous because they rely on humans to live,” she told FMT.
“But they do evolve to transmit quicker, which is what we are seeing now. We will see a higher number of deaths when the healthcare system is unable to cope,” she said.
Based on health ministry data, there were 195 Beta variant cases and 67 Delta cases as of Monday. However, 48 Beta cases and 27 Delta cases were reported yesterday.
Kumitaa said while the Beta numbers were higher now, Delta spreads at a more rapid rate. She said a Beta-variant virus would be able to replicate five cases in four days, but the Delta variant would take just one day to create five new cases.
She said that based on the infectivity rate of 1.14 as of yesterday, the virus was spreading at an exponential rate, and the number would go up with more positive cases detected.
Based on yesterday’s 11,000-odd positive cases, she said, new infections could be that number multiplied by 1.14 daily.
Kumitaa said the R0 numbers change with place and time and are used to predict whether a particular disease is spreading, levelling or diminishing. Numbers below 1 would put the virus in decline until it dies out.
She said the prevalent Delta strain was highly infectious, as data from 64 countries showed that a person with that strain had a 97% chance of infecting others in comparison to the older strains. If the previous virus was transmitting from one person to two, the Delta variant would transmit to four people.
In view of the rise in cases, she said, they could use saliva self-testing kits, which were easy to use at home, in hotspots and vaccinations need to be ramped up.
She also called for quicker isolation of those testing positive. “If there are no proper areas for Covid positive people to be isolated, then that defeats the purpose of mass testing.”
She also said wastewater testing could be carried out in low prevalence areas, which enables the early detection of Covid-19 cases within a community.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has introduced an in-depth guide on how to utilise the sewer samples as an indication of Covid-19 case growth.
More than 12 million cucuks already. MOH must monitor and publish antibody levels of people who have been vaccinated with the various vaccines. The public has a right to know which vaccines work and which don’t.
ReplyDeleteQUOTE
Thai study shows antibody levels after 2 doses of Sinovac drop 50% every 40 days
July 13, 2021
Clinical research has shown that the antibody levels in a person fully inoculated with two doses of the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine drops by half every 40 days, according to Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana, a virology researcher at the National Centre for Engineering and Biotechnology (BIOTEC).
In his Facebook post on Monday, Dr. Anan said the clinical research was jointly conducted by BIOTEC and the clinical research centre of the Faculty of Medicine of Thammasat University to study the antibody level toward the RBD protein of the COVID-19 virus in 500 samples of people fully inoculated with Sinovac vaccine.
The research shows the following:
Their antibody levels have dropped by half over an average of 40 days.
The antibody levels of those fully inoculated after 60 days are lower than those fully inoculated for fewer than 60 days.
The antibody levels within 60 days of the second dose are on a par with the efficacy of the vaccines against the original coronavirus variant, which is between 60-70% by average, but among those who are fully inoculated after 60 days, the efficacy of the vaccine dropped to 50%.
There is no comparative information about the efficacy of the Sinovac vaccine after two doses in protection against the Alpha or Delta variants.
The level of antibodies tends to drop in line with the ages of those vaccinated, with the level of those who are over 40 lower than their peers who are under 40.
An actress, Ms. Nataphon Temeerak said, via Instagram, that she had her antibody levels checked twice, 14 days and 28 days after the second dose. She found out that the levels were 1286.4 AU/ml (arbitrary units/milliliter) and 1098.5 AU/ml respectively.
She said her posting about her different antibody readings is intended remind people of the importance of protecting ourselves, even after vaccination.
Another woman, Sathi Baiyok, wife of an actor, said her antibody level in the second test had dropped substantially from the result in the first test. Her tests were 20 days apart.
UNQUOTE
Wakakakakaka…
ReplyDeleteU want to play virology?
Good.
Research IgA & IgG vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2 first!
More to clear up yr c&p farts later.
What a frightening prospect. The more worrisome part is that the PN government seems helpless in the face of this heightened danger.
ReplyDeleteWhy can't the ministers give a combined press conference like Singapore so that there is 1 single message being sent out.
At the moment, we have too many Indian Chiefs..and the Finance Minister has his new mandate!!!
The SARS-CoV-2 infect most effectively via the respiratory system. Thus the swap sample is taken from the mucous tissues from the nose & throat for antibody analysis.
ReplyDeleteTesting the presence of the antibody generated by the human defensive system against an invading virus is much quicker than the time consuming & tedious PCR testing for the presence of the virus.
Most of the antibody analysis r concentrating on detecting Ig-A, the front line neutralising antibody presented in the muscuos tissues within the respiratory system.
There is another neutralising antibody, Ig-G, usually present within the bloodstream when the infection turns critical.
All vaccine works by stimulating the human body defensive system to generate Ig-A & Ig-G to fight the invading virus.
From MedRxiv
SARS-CoV-2 spike antigen-specific IgG and IgA elicited by infection mediate viral neutralization and are likely an important component of natural immunity, however, limited information exists on vaccine induced responses.
We measured COVID-19 mRNA vaccine induced IgG and IgA in serum serially, up to 145 days post vaccination in 4 subjects. Spike antigen-specific IgG levels rose exponentially and plateaued 21 days after the initial vaccine dose. After the second vaccine dose IgG levels increased further, reaching a maximum approximately 7–10 days later, and remained elevated (average of 58% peak levels) during the additional >100 day follow up period.
COVID-19 mRNA vaccination elicited spike antigen-specific IgA with similar kinetics of induction and time to peak levels, but more rapid decline in serum levels following both the 1st and 2nd vaccine doses (<18% peak levels within 100 days of the 2nd shot). The data demonstrate COVID-19 mRNA vaccines effectively induce spike antigen specific IgG and IgA and highlight marked differences in their persistence in serum.
NOTE this is a case study for the original SARS-CoV-2, NOT for the other new valiants. In view of the recommendation by Pfizer for a 3rd booster jab to fight the layer valuants, the level of antibodies induced could be insufficient to defense the body from getting serious illness.
There is a similar case study in China for Sinovac done with Delta valiant.
The initial Ig-A count is 1.8X one week after vaccination. Before the 2nd dose on the 3rd week, the count has dropped to 1X then jumps to 2X one week after inoculation. Thereafter, the count drops to 1X after 4 months.
Both Pfizer & Sinovac show decline antigen count as time progresses. All plateau out at 50% of the initial value after 100 days.
The rapid decline of the Ig-A from the Pfizer sample vis-a-vis the Ig-G could explain the resurgence of the mild syndrome cases in UK & Israel under the current attack of Delta valiant.
While the strict control of the carrier tracing in China could explain the low case of the virulent Delta strain, together with the use of Sinovac/Sinopharm vaccines.
BTW, the Thai study has many questions.
1) too small of sampling size (2M Sinovac vs 67M AstraZeneca)
2) There is no comparative information about the efficacy of the Sinovac vaccine after two doses in protection against the Alpha or Delta variants.
???
Is that meant the report is based on the mother strain?
3) why ain't the finding submitted for peer review?
CK...thanks ! really appreciate this clear non-convoluted explanation...most of us are not in the medical field, or 'scientifically-inclined', let alone being virologists, unlike some Garbage Bins who pretended as a know-all and so unerringly zoom in for the foulest of sampah, hehehe, can we say he has a nose for putrid rotten morsels of the whitey kind.
DeleteLook at this headline :
ReplyDelete" Hundreds of Thai medical workers infected with Covid-19 despite Sinovac vaccination " (httpts://newswav.com/A2107_cGJktT?s=A_opKPq9M )
What's wrong with headline ? Most of us are busy with our lives and unless a topic is of particular interest, we just read the headline without reading the rest of reporting in the body.
But this headline is totally misleading. This is one of the 'proven' ways that's the favorite tactic used by the media in its misinformation and disinformation campaign.
By right, the correct heading should be as follows :
" Sinovac Success Story - 0.09% of 677,348 vaccinated workers were infected "
618 out of 677,348 health workers amounts to 0.0912 %, which means that Sinovac is 99.908 % effective against Covid-19. Furthermore, the infections were on the medical people, who would encounter a higher viral load than ordinary people.
That is how the Western countries and its allies in the other parts twist facts all along. Misleading and Malicious.
There is a big vaccine war going on to discredit each other and especially in using isolated cases. Geopolitics again rear its fugly head and according to the latest report, the Biden Administration has set aside USD 1.2 billion specifically for anti-China propaganda.