Monday, April 06, 2009

Najib, Anwar - 2 Ballsukits and one Batang

Malaysiakini 'B-Day': Tests for Najib and Anwar is a piece written by Bridget Welsh who is associate professor in Southeast Asian studies at John Hopkins University-SAIS, Washington DC (and I think, the supervisor for my good matey Ong Kian Ming’s doctoral thesis - nope, have been informed she's not OKM's supervisor - sorry KM).

From the title of her Malaysiakini article one shouldn't be blame for assuming that even sweetie Welsh has been caught up by the Najib versus Anwar battle that some in Malaysia want to portray as a fight between good and evil. Who’s good and who’s evil would depend on your political affiliation wakakaka!

Since I have none (political affiliation) save a current support for DAP’s reasonably clean politics and righteous political ideology, I am most qualified to pass judgement wakakaka – OK - I admit having an immense distrust for Anwar Ibrahim and his brand of shameless 916 politics, far greater than I have for Najib, though I consider both of them as from the same cesspool.

When Najib was DPM and thus deputy chairperson of the BN, it was only natural to hold him responsible for BN election (including by-election) successes or failures, as the BN election campaign director is traditionally the deputy chairperson of the BN.

Thus Najib was blamed for the loss of Permatang Pauh and Kuala Terengganu. Mind you, the former was never in question a guaranteed victory for PKR and therefore a no-hoper for the BN, whilst, yes, the latter was lost to PAS.

Najib is now the PM and therefore the BN’s campaign director is Muhyiddin who should rightfully be held responsible for the BN’s successes or failures in the one batang and two ballsukit’s by-elections, but …

… WTF, keep the gun sight on Najib and make sure we blame him for not winning the Bukit Selambau seat from PKR or the Bukit Gantang seat from PAS. They are referendum on Najib's PM-ship, especially if BN were to lose - wakakaka.

I wonder what referendum was on in 2004? wakakaka!

Before Najib became PM, he as DPM was also blamed for the draconian use of ISA, police and the law to suppress the press, rallies and virtually everything, even though there was a certain PM by the name of AAB and a certain Home Minister named Syed Hamid Alba, but …

… WTF, we had to keep the gun sight on then-DPM Najib and make sure we blame him for those over-the-top use of the law, police, courts, whatever …

G.A.N (Gerakan Anti Najib) has so successfully demon-ized Najib that the bloke has to be blamed for every which thing, and many of us like lemmings would follow that G.A.N demon-ization path without bothering to use our brains independently ... alas!

After all, we argue, didn’t he threaten to soak his keris in Chinese blood … probably the only UMNO bloke to ever threaten Chinese Malaysians, unlike good olde Anwar Ibrahim, who only told Chinese to f* off back to Tiongsun, and Indians that temple bells might not ring again if they don’t watch it.

I wonder whether evil Najib has ever wrecked an international meeting in Malaysia, like Apcet II?

Hmmm, come to think of it, Who was in charge when Apcet II was attacked by thugs?

In keeping with current trends set by G.A.N, perhaps it was Najib.

I bet Najib would have said after UMNO’s successful wrecking of Apcet II: “Our mission was to stop the conference and we did just that.”

As for the two Bukits, I recommend you read the analyses of my good matey Ong Kian Ming in Malaysiakini titled Bukit Gantang: PAS to thump Umno by 3,000 and Bkt Selambau: PKR to win by 1,500-2,000.

Ong is probably the best Malaysian pollster and would each time share with us his erudite dissections of the factors he analysed to come to his fairly accurate predictions.

One amazing sea change he has brought out has been the voters' swing of preference by ethnicity. If we examine Ong’s table for Bukit Gantang from 1999 to 2008, we see that the Malay voters have remain generally equal and fairly stable between PAS and UMNO at the 50 percentile mark.

How much will the ‘mohon derhaka’ misinformation and accusation of Nizar’s pro Chinese stand influence the heartland, and how much will be the effect of Dr Mahathir returning to the campaign trail for UMNO remain to be seen?

But what has been startling has been the swing of non-Malay (chiefly Chinese) voters, from an all time high of 84% for BN’s Bao Gong in 2004 to an abysmal 35% in 2008, in the period of one mere general election, more so when the candidate standing in the 2008 election was a PAS candidate.

I believe Nizar will continue to enjoy the 65% non-Malay support if not more because of his immense popularity. Ong suggested that non-Malay support may increase by another 5% for good olde Nizar.


  1. Yo KT and all
    Nizar 65 pc of Malay votes?
    Even his elder brother is campaigning against him.
    The brother told Bukit Gantang people to vote for BN.
    Bukit Selambau: 5 PKR leaders in Kedah resigned enbloc with their supporters.
    So my take is BN will win all three including Batang Air.
    Ar first I gave Bukit Gantang 50-5.
    But so many things are against Nizar.

  2. if you read carefully I said 65% non-Malay support

  3. I hope it goes 3-0 PR's way but realistically, I think it will be 2-1 either way. I hope the rural folks will just take whatever is given by the BN and vote the "right way". It has happened before and it can happen again.

  4. Yep. sorry.
    But your goo;d olde Nizar is really in a tight spot now.
    No more 50-50 win.

  5. KT

    You believe every word your good matey Ong Kian Ming wrote in Malaysiakini ??
    titled Bukit Gantang: PAS to thump Umno by 3,000 and Bkt Selambau: PKR to win by 1,500-2,000.

    Come on he's a paid writer and moreover Malaysiakini as you and I and many here is AnwarsitaKini or Anwarkini whichever sounds right .

    Tomorrow when the results are announced hopefully I am not wrong , Ong Kian Ming will have to eat humble pie by courtesy of the fat ass blogger .

  6. I will never support and respect desperado who doctored picture to defame his opponent to win. Instead I will throw rotten eggs at Nizar for doing that. Absolutely a scandalous and disgracefull behavior.

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  8. KT

    The question is now if it going to be 3-0 or 2-1 in the favour of Najib. The GSOS can kiss good bye to BS and BA (if he has yet to do so that is).

    As for Bkt Gantang, this is what I hear. The UMNO strategy has been proven so useful that Nizar is avoiding Malay areas except where the Talibans..oops...hard core PAS supporters reside.

    The situation is so dire that Nizar had been told to avoid press conferences and even speeches.

    As for non Malays, Nizar is in a better position but it won't be anywhere near the 84%. I guess it could be around 2/3 for Chinese and 50% or less for Indians. BN has made much head way as far as Indians voters concerned. The Hindraf detainees release and some other positive moves recently (mainly on aids to Tamil schools and a few other programs) has shifted the balance.

    Another interesting thing is that PR seemed to have over-played the issue of the taking over of the Perak state by BN. Apparently this has pissed at least some non Malays off as they feel this issue has been over blown.

    I think OKM has been wrong a few times before and I think this trend will continue. This time Nizar will lose.

    BTW, you might be interested to know that UMNO is also exploiting the so-called Pangkor Treaty 2 "signed" between DAP and PAS.

  9. Yo Ong kian Ming
    There's still time for you to retract your story ! You still think PKR to win by 1,500-2,000 ???

    5 PKR division heads quit party

    SUNGAI PETANI, April 6 — Five Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) division chiefs in Kedah announced today they had quit the party as they had lost confidence in the leadership of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

    They are Jerlun division chief Azhar Ahmad, Bakar Din (Baling), Hamid Othman (Padang Serai), Wahab Mat Isa (Sik) and Bakar Hamid (Pendang).

    Azhar claimed that the struggles of the party were no longer relevant.

    "We are disappointed that Anwar is giving more importance to the views of PAS and DAP leaders," he said, adding that Anwar had also neglected his division, especially in terms of appointment to the village chief council.

    The five former PKR division chiefs called on voters in the Bukit Selambau state by-election tomorrow to reject PKR candidate S. Manikumar. — Bernama

    Times Have Changed ! Politics is just like the stock market they go down and they go up . BN hit rock bottom after 308 political tsunami . Today BN is on the recovery trend . Vice Versa PR hit their highs during 308 , today they are on the downward trend .

  10. KTemoc,

    Well, well, what is new in this Bolehland?

    After all that is said & done....

    It might be 50:50 for all the 3 bye-elections....

    UMNO/BN have always chosen the easier way of “Gutter Politics” & the “Law of the Jungle”....

    Intimidation & hard to refuse Parting Gifts(Political, Business Goodies!) at this nation’s & taxpayer’s expense....

    This great nation & its Leaders COULD have gone either of 2 ways....

    The Honourable Westminster style of Democracy with the Rule of Law requiring the formation of the RCI prior to the appointment/s

    That would make this great Nation, its King, its Leaders & its Rayaat proud of its Integrity, Transparency & Honour....

    Or the easier way of “Gutter Politics” & the “Law of the Jungle”....

    Intimidation & hard to refuse Parting Gifts(Political, Business Goodies!)

    Najib's & his Muslim Hadhari UMNO/BN Ketuanan Beggars are at it again....

    Either "Heads I Win, Tail YOU Lose" or else my late father's "Recommended Potion" will be the order of the day....Guaranteed to work!


  11. Dear KT

    I think Chaptokam, Xie Ann and I will be celebrating tonight.
    Yam Seng

  12. Idzan

    You missed out Killer and who knows maybe our friend in Australia might be celebrating with the beautiful sweeties down under ( just like the ones in the pic ) Wakakaka ........

  13. Chaptokam.
    Yep our beloved KT is a silent BN supporter.
    Maybe he's booked a candle-light dinner wth the beauties.
    Go matey. have a nice day.

  14. KT'
    No worries here , BN is going to be whacked kou! kau!Mark my words.You must be here to taste the people"s anger!No use sitting in Aussie land and reading from the locals.
    If you still believe in those Idzans,chaptokens,those wannabe killers, sorry i have a Swan anytime with you!

  15. Now that these 3 by-elections are about be concluded, i am already looking forward.

    I can foresee at least 2 more on the horizon.

    First in Penang where I expect the Cheap Minister to produce (ala David Coopefield) a resignation letter from that crooked ex-DCM1 Fairus. So we will have a by-election for Penanti, which I guess will a walk-over for BN.

    The next to "resign" will be Eli Wong. Bkt Lanjan will be tougher and I guess Pakatan likely to retain that seat. I am dying of curiousity to see who will be nominated by PR to stand as the candidate and also the person who replaces her on the state exco.

    BTW, the funny thing is that in Penang we might have 2 Indians as DCMs. Apart from Prof Ramasamy (whom I hear not supposed to use the title Prof but keep using it anyway), the Cheap Minister likely yo nominate Malek as the replacement for Fairus. Actually Malek is an Indian Muslim and unsurprisingly a kaki bodek and a crony of the Cheap Minister. It seems that Malek is closer to LGE than to his own party leaders.

    BTW did I tell that the Cheap Minister, Prof Rama and Fairus are all non Penangites ?

  16. chaptokam,

    What is your take?

    Killer 3-0 for BN
    Idzan 3-0 for BN
    Me 2-1 for BN

    But my heart cry out for 3-0 for BN, I am afraid BN may lose Bukit Gantang not because PR is better, but because of their populist policies.

    Sure we shall celebrate tonight.

  17. chaptokam, Idzan, killer,

    So far what are the indications

  18. Me ?
    Bukit Selambau - PR
    Bukit Gantang - PR
    Batang Ai - BN (but only small margin).
    Unfortunately, after so many years of loyal support for BN, much of Batang Ai has no proper roads and electricity, let alone the Internet and blogs. Its an indictment of BN, but...sigh...the people there don't know anything better.

  19. Idzan
    don't fantasize my dear. I am not a BN supporter but I intend to be fair to every party (and every individual) which (who) conducts itself (him/herself) fairly and with propriety.

    I don't support fanatical reckless badmouthing of anyone as I have seen (read of) what PKR people had done to Najib (not to say Najib is clean or an angel but I want some basic evidence), so my dear fellow (XieAn) it would be best to mind your words about DAP leaders, if you want me to respect you and your comments wakakaka.

  20. I had a long career starting at age 23, and I retired as the chief executive of an organisation which employed over 5,000 people.

    One of the most important lessons I learnt was not to wait until the evidence that there is a serious problem with something or someone hits you in the face. Its not to say you judge someone guilty without evidence, but you learn to question and dig when something doesn't look right. You also learn to assess who you can trust, who is iffy, and also notice when someone changes for the better - or unfortunately changes for the worse.

    I'm just being long winded, but its my way of explaining why I have very serious questions and doubts about Najib, his conduct, and what he had to do with Altantuya, and when. The authorities, very likely at Najib's behest, have been very obviously spending a lot of energy preventing these questions from being answered, or even being asked. Unlike some others, I have not pronounced him 'guilty' but I do not trust him as long as these serious questions are unanswered.

    I did not like the Anwar Ibrahim who was in UMNO. I also see that his basic personality has not changed - his penchant for deals and intrigues. That's the "916" bit. But I have, over time, been convinced that Anwar Ibrahim's fundamental political beliefs and direction have totally changed.
    His Bangsa Malaysia is for real, its not just an act.

    Anyway, my long winded explanation why, to me, between Najib and Anwar, Anwar Ibrahim is definitely the better man.

    But I don't idolise him the way many of my young charges do.

    Ah, I've written before on your blog, why I think BN will continue to be in big trouble as long as they are unable to win over the hearts and minds of the young voters - and there are many, many of them.

    I won't try to be a clairvoyant, but I will say the young voters will decide the outcome of the by-elections, at least in the Peninsular Malaysia seats.

  21. Being gag by KT, probably been told by DAP leaders to do so, they cannot tahan already....Wakakakaak

  22. XieAn

    I hear 3-0 for Najib so far based on sentiments on the ground and feedback from polling stations.

    There is no hope for PR in BS and BA. The only fight is at BG but even there Nizar is having a hard time. The problem is Nizar has to win big. Even a narrow win won't suffice as it would mean the support for PR has reduced and the coalition's claim as the rightful govt of Perak is not really accepted by Perakians.

    KT : Wah so fierce meh ? So now we have the Tiger of Melbourne in addition to the Tiger of Jeluntong ?

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  24. Dear Observer

    I work in the corporate sector as well in the senior management position.

    One of the fundamental rules in the corporate and scientific world is that you base your decisions on hard facts and data and not on vague suspicions and "gut feeling". The corporate graveyard is filled with the skeletons of those companies led by leaders who led by intuitions and "gut feeling".

    In case of Najib, yeah we hear all kinds of accusations. But my approach is simple. Who are the people doing the accusing and what kind of proof do they offer ? It is plain to see that all these conspiracy theories are coming from the coalition of political hooligans collectively called as Pakatan Rakyat. And the "proof" that so far they have shown us is nothing more than hearsay and speculations.

    I am not saying Najib's an angel but I don't see a logical or empirical reason for his involvement.

    My guiding principle is simple, judge a person by his/her actions. Using this same principle, it is very easy indeed to judge Anwar to be the Great Snake Oil Salesman (GSOS). Nothing in his history (be it as an UMNO minister or a PR leader) has shown him to be a reformer. His piss poor record as DPM, Education and Finance Minister is well known. And in PR, he tried and still trying to hijack the govt via back door.

    His penchant for rear-entry (honest I only alluding to politics here)is well known. He tried to sabotage TDM and usurp the PM post in 1998 and he was kicked unceremoniously out. And his recent 916 attempt was also backfired when he lost Perak.

    So I am going to give Najib his chance to prove what he can do for the nation and BN before I judge him.

  25. chaptokam, Idzan, killer,

    I have already champagne chilled, ready to open...

  26. Trust me, Xiean will be pouring the champagne down the drain tonight, or may be toasting Anwar ?

  27. tdm now is helping bn in campaigning... my take bn will win all 3 constituencies :)

  28. Killer

    BTW did I tell that the Cheap Minister, Prof Rama and Fairus are all non Penangites ?

    The Cheap Minister is 100 percent Not from Penang ie Malacca .
    Rama - ?
    Fairus - ?
    Jeff Ooi - not from Penang , Selangor I think .
    Liew Chin Tong - not from Penang

    Who else ?

    KT seems to be moody , so lets thread a bit careful . Maybe he already sense that its gonna be 3-0 Did he place any bets ???? Wakakaka............

  29. Observer, I respect your comments and views but I beg to differ with your "But I have, over time, been convinced that Anwar Ibrahim's fundamental political beliefs and direction have totally changed. His Bangsa Malaysia is for real, its not just an act."

    I have blogged on my take as to why Anwar is (in my assessment) *hypocritically* talking now about multiculturalism or Bangsa Malaysia or that the NEP should be changed into a colourless policy, so I won't repeat my views here.

    I don't think Ong Ka Ting is a man one wants to quote for succinct statement but having said that, Ong had been spot on at least on one occasion, when he described Anwar as a person "who talks human talk to humans and ghost talk to ghosts."

    The added danger is Anwar has been gifted with a silver tongue that he's quite capable of convincing people of whatever he chooses to project himself as. Take for example, his reformasi - was that compatible with his froggie campaign and 916?

    Yet, despite his arrogant discarding of his reformasi mask in that raw grab for power from what he thought to be low brow AAB (someone he considers below his intellect), many still believe he is a reformer, and even attempt to justify his deformasi conduct.

    No wonder in Malaysia we frequently hear of gullible (and well educated) women allowing themselves to be shagged by low brow Chinese mediums, bomohs and rascals. Those women had wanted to believe in the same way Anwar's supporters want to believe.

    In some ways I feel sad for them.

  30. chaptokam, c'mon lah, do we have to resort to the puerile 'Cheap' Minister? Let's raise the level of the discussion, shall we?

  31. Batang Ai in BN's bag

    Two more to go

  32. My prediction? BN 4-0. How come they win one more seat? Well, they would have won 3-0 if they had won them fair and square. But I'd give them one more seat for cheating. All praise to the BN, the greatest political coalition on planet earth! Well, PR is not as good as BN: those guys don't know how to cheat. I don't like PR, they are too straight! Look at Batang Ai: at one point in the counting, PKR was actually leading. But don't you worry, Taib Mahmud, the great Melanau magician is here! The great magician has so many tricks that even when BN component parties are losing in his enchanted land, there'll be extra boxes appearing out of nowhere to allow the BN to win!

    Chaptay Mok

  33. Chaptokam my old chap,

    Prof Rama is from Selangor and Fairus is yet another import from Selayang,Selangor too.

    BTW the Cheap Minister is from Batu Pahat though he was based in Malacca for most of his life.

    As for Jeff, he was born in BM but worked and lived in Klang Valley.

    Oh ya, KT's silence is worrying me too. I heard bookies not even taking any bets for BS and BA, only for BG.

  34. Chaptay Mok

    Part and parcel of the game called politics .

    In case you have forgotten , George W Bush , the Ex President from the Land of Opportunity also cheated in the 2000 Presidential elections in the US . Remember Forida ? the ballots ? the ballot stubs ? Gore got cheated of the Presidency .

    And please don't start that magician crap ! next you'll be saying phantom voters by the busloads !

    It happens in Taiwan , it happens in Pakistan , India , Russia , everywhere !!

  35. Killer

    Its forgone conclusion that there will be two bye elections after this and as mentioned by you .

    But there's a possibility there might be an additional one , depends on who is further implicated in the quarry business issue and my source tells me a high ranking PKR leader is also implicated , one who is also an MP , but that needs to be confirmed .

    As for who will be replacing Eli Wong in Bkt Lanjan when she resigns and you are dying of curiosity to see who will be nominated by PR I believe I have the answer and I believe I am correct . She is Datin Paduka Tan Yee Kew . The former MCA MP for Klang who resign from MCA and joined PKR due to a fallout with Ong Ka Ting in the phantom members issue and she was not nominated to contest in the last GE by MCA . She's the one !

  36. Xie An, Chaptokam, Killer et all.
    I will be having an early dinner. Later supper and Cafe Latte.
    We want and we wish for BN3-0.
    I am sure people in the three places know a vote for Fakatan menas a vote for Anwar.
    It's just to satiscy the Amwar centric ego.
    They will still remain poor.
    If they vote BN, they will see developments like township for Kuala Sepetang fishermen folk.
    Did anybody see whether Amwar even care for Permatang Pauh.
    Did he visit his constituency?
    P.S. KT, I respect your support for DAP. I will love DAP if not for supporting Anwar.

  37. chaptokam

    Oh yeah, that messy quarry business. I heard in fact there are 2 DAP MPs involved, both very high ranking leaders in the Penang state government. Did your lil bird say anything on these 2 transplanted gents ?

    As for Bkt Lanjan, oh I see so it is going to be that froggie Datin Paduka Tan Yee Kew...How about exco seat then ?

  38. No wonder in Malaysia we frequently hear of gullible (and well educated) women allowing themselves to be shagged by low brow Chinese mediums, bomohs and rascals. Those women had wanted to believe in the same way Anwar's supporters want to believe.

    Just to add , similarly well educated and holding responsible jobs Malaysian are so gullible to be conned by low brow (new word I learn today ) foreigners into believing black paper can be turned into US dollars with some magic water , ink or chemical . That also applies to Malaysians who are so gullible in believing everything written by the fat ass alcoholic blogger . Amen !

  39. Killer

    Are you sure about the 2 DAP MPs involved, both very high ranking leaders ? According to my source one of them is the PKR MP fella from Bayan Baru . That guy has a background that fits a participant in this type of shady business . Think you can counter check your info while I do same .

    On that froggie Datin Paduka Tan Yee Kew.. I guess the that comes with the stimulus included otherwise it would not look so appetizing . Originally the carrot was the Pengerusi Majlis Perbandaran Port Klang , but somehow that failed to materialize .

  40. Look like Bukit Gantang a goner for BN

  41. well, Idzan better hold off the champagne then ;-)

  42. Bukit Selambau also a goner for BN.

    No celebration tonight,champagne have to de-chilled for other day......

  43. chaptokam, Idzan, killer,

    Dr M to be blamed for BN losses. He should stay at the old man's home and not come out to disturb. PR people was so happy when Dr M came around, gifts from haven......

  44. So now PR are given licences to cause troubles. Brace for doom and gloom.

  45. Yeah guys (you know who you are)... put away the champagne. No victory dance tonight...

    Instead, have a piece of Humble Pie, baked courtesy of the voters of Bk. Gantang & Bk. Selambau...

  46. Bukit Gantang --> PAS
    Bukit Selambau --> PKR

    Chaptokam, Killer, XieAn and Idzan, your champagne glasses must be filled to overflowing ... with your tears. But never mind, poor dears, here's a tissue.

    Yang benar,
    Heeedooop BN