Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Why Anwar isn't interested in a by-election?

Chan Kok Leong of Malaysiakini wrote a good article on AAB’s first 100 days in his new term as PM titled The siege of Abdullah.

You have the usual suspects – Dr M, his son Mukhriz Mahatir, the royalty of several states sensing a weak PM, Ku Li out for a last and really final stab at being PM, etc etc etc - applying the stick on AAB.

But the one I was interested in is ;-) you know who.

Malaysiakini wrote: Anwar and other PKR leaders have taken turns to taunt Abdullah with “impending” crossovers almost on a weekly basis. Pakatan now claims it has enticed two more MPs to add to the opposition total of 82. It has issued an
open invitation to other BN parliamentarians to join them.

In reality the two SAPP MPs recently avoided a no confidence vote in the motion on the fuel price by absenting themselves from the Dewan, so the impression we get would be they aren’t as certain as Yong Teck Lee in opposing AAB or crossing over to PKR.

I personally believe that Anwar’s taunting and the current G.A.N campaign have been the standard manoeuvre to pry a way back into UMNO for Anwar Ibrahim.

I was wondering why he hasn’t made any move to stand for a by-election in, say, Bandar Tun Razak or Balik Pulau or his old seat Permatang Pauh after his legal barring was over in mid April. He could have easily won on the immediate ‘halo’ effect of the tsunamic victory by the Pakatan Rakyat.

I had toyed around with this possibility in Where will Anwar Ibrahim stand for Parliament?

Then recently, in a Malaysiakini (or was it Star Online) article, Khalid Ibrahim discounted Bandar Tun Razak as a possible by-election constituency for Anwar because it would become the most dangerous seat for his de facto leader, implying perhaps that the BN would pour in everything including the kitchen sink to make sure Anwar loses.

Of course they could be another reason, that the BMC residents are by now less than (previously) enamoured of PKR after the prolonged road toll saga which had a few casualties.

I thought to myself that perhaps Anwar wants to play absolutely safe and only stand in a by-election after the froggies have come over in enough numbers for his party to claim majority rule (though of course there’s Karpal Singh to contend with). As the de facto leader of the ruling party in government he will be reasonably protected from UMNO tactics, with which he knows plenty of.

But wait, there could well be a third reason.

I harkened back to my original thoughts about Anwar which I posted in Can we trust Anwar Ibrahim? I then wrote (extracts):

Anwar is not comfy with the Pakatan. All the boasts about frogs belie his fears of a Pakatan disagreement over his shameless undemocratic taunting of how he intends to win rule through promoting party hopping, a tactic he mastered when he was in UMNO. You can take the bloke out of UMNO but you can’t take UMNO out of the bloke.

His froggy scheme can be undone in just one fell hop swoop by an uncooperative bloke like Karpal Singh whom, I believe, won’t bloody tolerate the disgraceful nonsense of robbing power through backdoor non-democracy.

He wants UMNO to ask him ‘to come home’. Then he won’t need to depend on the DAP or PAS, but especially the DAP.

Look, his man Khalid Ibrahim had felt bloody awkward forming up the Selangor exco, avoiding the appointment of the deputy MB because of too many Chinese faces. It’s bad enough having the DAP full of ‘nons’ but the ethnic situation has been compounded by the PKR ‘nons’. Quite unlike an UMNO-MCA-MIC situation.

Perak was another case in point, where the Regent by unexpectedly appointing a PAS man as the MB, had even further reduced the PKR’s standing.

And Penang?!! Need I say more?

It’s not an image Anwar wants the heartland to see, and real power can only come from the support of the heartland.

No doubt Anwar had done his part to keep the Pakatan in a cohesive form during the election campaign (and no one can take that away from him) but it wasn’t just for altruistic reasons. His strategy was to reduce the BN-UMNO majority to less than 2/3, and then voila, to present his inner coterie as the component available (after an invitation) to restore UMNO’s 2/3, but AAB wasn’t biting for various reasons.

Hence he is piling the pressure on AAB daily with his froggie forecast. The subtext? Anwar wants back into UMNO ... or else!

Another worry for him which is also slowly sinking in for his supporters is that PKR was borne along in the election mainly by Chinese and Indian votes. Push comes to shove, should the DAP and PKR come to a head on, except for a minority among the younger more idealistic set, most Chinese and Indian voters would opt for the DAP, or worse, even return to the BN.

Anwar won’t have a dream of ever weaning away the PAS and UMNO hardcore supporters into his camp. It’ll be a far tougher fight in the next election. And just don't forget, his PKR's 31 seats aren't pure PKR, not with Dr Jeya and Wee and perhaps a couple more. This may explain his continuous and frantic claims of frogs.

And I suspect the periodic attacks on Najib by using the Altantuyaa case in the most sensational manner is part of the pressure on UMNO, virtually saying “hey, surely you guys don’t want a future leader like murder-tainted Najib?” or/and "get me a.s.a.p or I'll give you more hell on this" – see my lamentation for Altantuyaa Shariibuu in this regard in Murdering Altantuyaa Shaariibuu Again.

… which may explain the third reason, and probably the most likely of them, that he hasn’t offered himself as a candidate in any by-election (look, just one word from him and at least half a dozen acolytes would readily surrender their seats to him) has been because he wants to re-enter UMNO as a person ‘untainted’ by being a representative of any other party like Ku Li was of Semangat 46.

When and if he returns (not if many UMNO people can help it) he will then demand a seat to stand in a by-election, as an UMNO candidate.

Oh, don’t forget too his yet to be appealed court case for wrongful dismissal from his No 2 spot in the cabinet – hey, he could well be successful as I had blogged in Anwar Ibrahim on way back to UMNO via court appeal?

Gerakan Party reinventing, Anwar Ibrahim reinvented


  1. How possible for Anwar to lose a seat shall there be by-election?

    Very possible... ;)

    Anyway... My mum is a Bandar Tun Razak voter... she voted for Opposition... but shall there be any by-election... I would bet my bottom dollar that she'll either not vote... or vote for BN...

    nah... she doesn't really trust Anwar... and she doesn't really fancy PKR... and I don't think she likes the idea of changing a government like this... after all she's still a woman preferring stability... ;)

  2. you think too much losing the big picture.

  3. I beginning to doubt PR sincerity. I am upset with them for engaging undemocratic method to gain power.

    Clearly they don't have the member, yet with the never ending and almost daily taunting of the PM with the crossover, they are not helping the people and the country instead causing more trouble and uncertainty, Ask around many people will tell that our economy is in bad shape and the confident level is very low.

    What the people and the country need more are stability and it will only materialise with the cooperation from both side. That I don't see it coming in the near future.

    Cheers and have a nice day

  4. Hi KT, the law stipulated that no by-election can be held within six months after a general election, may be you want to consider this fact before whacking Anwar?

  5. while anwar and RPK are masters of the masterful , you are a true master of gossip and bush beating ! only possible of a man in a wheelchair or 24 hrs at an armchair ! with a big brain to boot.
    in due time you will look really silly no doubt.

    small brain big body

  6. The mother of all frogs is Anwar himself, loudly signalling to UMNO here I am, just like frogs loudly singing for rain to come, but the stupid sleepyhead brainless Dollah never understands.

  7. KT, u perhaps think too much and too cautious about what Anwar gonna do. Not you or me will understand what Anwar's thinking.

    But one thing for sure, if Anwar is to return to UMNO, where would Najob stands? Where would Muhyddin go? Who's the next PM after Pak Lah? Will Uncle Lah risking his own position to take Anwar back to UMNO?

    Sure Anwar would not settle for second now after near missed 10 years ago. So if Anwar return to UMNO, there's only 1 condition - He's the PM. So that leaves the door shut because not Uncle Lah nor Najib would welcome this.

    Anyway there's still Khinzir Jantan outthere too. Also we can almost certain to discard Najib because soon he'll be going to hell meeting his "lover" with his love of the life!

  8. hey dumbo,

    do we have a choice here?

    i would rather take anwar as a new leader than having the "No Comment" "tak tau" sleepy PM.....

    at least anwar is a no nonsense leader, rather than the stupid flip floper PM we are having now...

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  10. Sorry, wrong link, this is the correct one ...

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  11. Ktemoc -
    "Khalid Ibrahim had felt bloody awkward forming up the Selangor exco, avoiding the appointment of the deputy MB because of too many Chinese faces".

    I really, really, get irritated by Ktemoc repeating this lie so many times. And this really is a Ktemoc lie, because almost no credible commentator makes this an issue with Khalid Ibrahim.

    The Selangor palace officially stated, including on TV, they were opposed to the appointment of a non-Muslim Deputy MB.

    Ktemoc is making a insidious, malevolent lie, because it is racist in nature. I hate it when people do that deliberately.

    I don't quite agree with the reasons given, but Khalid wasn't about to trigger a constitutional crisis with the Sultan, with the 2 week old Pakatan state government at the time.

    I repeat my question in an earlier post.

    When all this settles down, and the fantasies about Anwar never happen, will Ktemoc be man enough to admit he is wrong ?

    Or will he just carry on raising new hostile barbs at Anwar, like a worn-out gramophone ?

  12. KT with your silly comments and comical opinions, personally, I think you need a brain transplant!

  13. See what I meant, we are not united, everyday we are quarreling, everyday the politicians are spinning.

    How to move forward?

    Cheers and have a nice day

  14. Dear KTemoc,

    1. Why are you not on Malaysiakini's 'Our Choice'? You are always a good read.

    2. I, too, feel that the senario you're suggesting will play out, regarding AI and umno. Let's see if we're right ;)

    3. Syabas for including all the 'nay'sayers' comments. I guess you realise that they are really helping you 'win' your case, no? Hahaha!

    I'll be visiting again. Bloody good spy-versus-spy ala Mad Magazine, man!

  15. Dear KT,
    If we all think like you, we might as well stop going to the polls forever. There's no one we can put our hopes on and vote for in this whole damn place, according to you. You don't support froggies to win over a government that uses every damn dirty trick in the book to win an election "lawfully" but without any principles, yet you expect PR to stay with principles. You expect PR to play by all the rules until we go the Zimbab-way?

  16. Ktemoc, you do have a strong opinion about Anwar and you stick consistently to it despite vehement disagreement to your views by some of your readers.

    I salute you for allowing all readers' comments thru, even those which are strongly anti your stand. This is good for democracy.

    I would say that your taking on the Cassandra role is good, even necessary. See what happened to Troy (the Iliad) when Cassandra's misgivings about the Greek horse were ignored.

    Posted by:

  17. BN played dirty and PR have right to to play dirty,its this Malaysian way? I thought BN was taught a leason for being dirty and we want an alternative who are not dirty?

    Cheers and have a nice day

  18. Kittykat46 asked:
    I repeat my question in an earlier post.

    When all this settles down, and the fantasies about Anwar never happen, will Ktemoc be man enough to admit he is wrong ?

    Or will he just carry on raising new hostile barbs at Anwar, like a worn-out gramophone ?

    Well, KT was recently converted with regard to lawyer/blogger Haris. I won't be surprised a similar conversion with regard to 'liar/frogger' Anwar!

    Well, Kt may need to throw out the old worn-out gramo soon. He will need a new gizmo to play the new tunes!

    sing, penang

  19. yes. what our country needs right now is stability.the last thing that we need are so-called leaders that strive power for their own pleasures and personal gains. We've seen how Anwar's bold leapS and hopS around to secure himself the power that he wants. Along the way, he sacrificied his integrity and creadibility. Clearly, he's a self-centered politican.

  20. "what our country needs right now is stability".

    We've had 50 years of BN-style stability. They have been robbing the country blind, racist to the core.

    50 years of BN stability has taken us - down the road to Zimbabwe-land.

    Another couple of decades of BN stability, your children or grandchildren will be looking for top-notch careers as Domestic Maids and Construction Labourers in China and Vietnam.

    What this country BADLY needs is CHANGE.

  21. KK46,

    I agree with you that we need change, but I want to add that change for better and not change from devil to demon. Now the devil and demon start to fight and trying to topple each other with whatever means causing a lot of uncertainty and it may go out of control that why we the silent majority are coming out to have our say.

    At this difficult time we do not want any uncertainty that why we are calling for stability. I plead for your understanding

    Cheers and have a nice day.

  22. "What this country BADLY needs is CHANGE."

    with the PR's situation do you really think they are the perfect people who can make a good, better change for our country?
    A component that didn't even have the same aspirations to built our nation.
    with the leader's agenda to take over by using undemocratic ways.
    what kind of change do you think PK will bring to the table?