Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Selangor GE14 landscape

Sadly for PAS, it has been reported as now panicking over the growing attractiveness of Amanah (short name of the newly formed Harapan Baru Amanah Rakyat), the newly formed political party of its breakaway group of professionals. Some ulamas are also said to be looking after numero uno and on the verge of desertion over to Amanah.

Last month Pak Haji Hadi Awang, PAS's party president, told Channel NewsAsia that Amanah won't last more than 2 years based on his knowledge of previous PAS splinter groups. But maybe this time, instead of Amanah suffering the short-lived fates of Berjasa and Hamim, PAS' previous naughty unhappy offsprings, PAS papa-san may see itself soon consigned to the dustbin of history by its anak bongsu, Amanah.

But hey, let's not get too ahead of ourselves. Let's examine the political makeup of Selangor and its likely landscape post GE14, particular with regards to DAP.

Currently, the breakdown of political power is as follows:

  • DAP 15 seats (eat your bloody hearts out, PKR, wakakaka)
  • PKR 13 (minus Khalid Ibrahim)
  • PAS 13 (minus Hasnul Baharuddin & Saari Sungib)
  • UMNO 12
  • Amanah 2 (assuming Hasnul Baharuddin & Saari Sungib will be in Amanah)
  • Independent 1 (Khalid Ibrahim)

RPK had suggested that DAP might contest in 10 of PAS' constituencies with at least 5 Malay candidates, and with a strong likelihood of winning all for a total of 25 ADUN after GE14 (retaining its current 15 and the new 10 from PAS current seats).

He predicted that DAP will become the Tai-Koh to govern Selangor happily ever after. Naturally as per his prediction the new MB will be nominated by DAP. RPK believes DAP will forward the names of 3 of its victorious Malay ADUN for HRH to approve one as the new post-GE14 MB.

However, I personally believe that if Pakatan MK 2.0 wins the state election in GE14, the nominated MB candidate may well be still Azmin Ali (PKR) or Saari Sungib (Amanah), or (OK lah) Dr Bari (DAP) or indeed any Malay ADUN from the winning coalition.

Sorry lah, the MB of Selangor has to (must) be a Malay, which BTW, can be a "former" Chinese, Indian, Thai, Bangladeshi, Iban, Kadazan, etc or even a Mat Salleh provided he/she meets the constitutional requirements to be defined as a 'Malay', no doubt a constitutional one but nonetheless a 'Malay'.

Just an aside, I wonder whether Tan Sri Dato' Dr. Hj. Abdul Mubin (Mervyn) Cecil ffranck Sheppard (Irish extract, former British citizen), our 1st Museum Negara Director, who converted to Islam and took up Malaysian citizenship was officially a 'Malay'?

Back on track - Of course I dream of such a RPK-forecast outcome for the DAP in Selangor after GE14 but reality tells me to wake up and that RPK has been cynically (or sarcastically) teasing. So, sigh, that outcome is most unlikely.

Before we examine those 15 PAS seats, let's look broadly at the likely scenario in Selangor comes GE14 in dot-point guess-timates.

As a minimum:

  • UMNO-BN will contest all 56 seats (wakakaka)
  • DAP will contest the same 15 seats and is likely to hold on to them
  • PAS will contest the same 15 seats - outcome unknown
  • PKR will contest the same 16 seats including Port Klang (wakakaka), Kota Damansara and Semenyih
  • Amanah will contest the same 15 PAS seats and is likely to hold on its 2 seats.
  • PSM? I don't know whether PKR will entertain its bids? I doubt it as PSM lost Semenyih for PKR, seen by the latter as an unforgivable act.

OK, assuming PAS and PKR remains pally-buddy because PKR party president Dr Wan wants PKR to be friends with everyone especially UMNO, wakakaka, (she has even welcomed the new position taken by Dr Mahathir that street demonstrations can be carried out to oust Najib Abdul Razak - hmmm, reformasi?), they (PAS and PKR) won't contest in each other's stake outs. OK, remember this!

But how many of UMNO's current 12 seats will each be contested by PAS, Amanah and PKR (and among themselves) is not my interest but rather how many will DAP contest in the 15 seats currently held by PAS?

I am again assuming for simplicity's sake DAP won't contest in the BN held constituencies (and for someone's heart condition, wakakaka) even in Kota Damansara and Semenyih.

For that, to wit, how many PAS' seats will DAP contest in GE14, I have to shamelessly "borrow" the stats worked out by an erstwhile (sob) friend, wakakaka, who has been and is still marvellous with such number-crunching - sorry Darleeng for using your figures without permission - consider it as my compliment to your excellent job (kissy kissy). OK, here's what sweetie has worked out:

Percentage of Chinese (C) & Indian (I) voters in the 15 PAS Selangor state seats

  1. Gombak Setia: 11.7% C, 9.2 % I 
  2. Sabak: 13.2% C, 6.3% I 
  3. Hulu Kelang: 14.3% C, 4.1% I 
  4. Sijangkang: 15.1% C, 16.5% I 
  5. Bangi: 19.0% C, 13.5% I 
  6. Morib: 21.8% C, 15.6% I 
  7. Selat Kelang: 25.0% C, 10.4% I 
  8. Meru: 27.0% C, 12.4% I 
  9. Tanjung Sepat: 28.1% C, 13.2% I 
  10. Paya Jaras: 30.4% C, 11.4% I 
  11. Lembah Jaya: 31.9% C, 12.7% I 
  12. Taman Templer: 34.6% C, 13.0% I 
  13. Seri Serdang: 36.1% C, 16.5% I 
  14. Dusun Tua: 37.4% C, 6.9% I 
  15. Chempaka: 38.2% C, 7.3% I

Based on RPK's "forecast" (wakakaka), Sweetie believes the 10 PAS seats which will probably be challenged by DAP candidates, including DAP Malay candidates, are (after excluding those with small numbers of non-Malay voters, No 1 to 5 above):

  1. Morib: Malay 61.3% 
  2. Selat Kelang: Malay 63.9% 
  3. Meru: Malay 60.2% 
  4. Tanjung Sepat: Malay 55.7% 
  5. Paya Jaras: Malay 57.0% 
  6. Lembah Jaya: Malay 54.3% 
  7. Taman Templer: Malay 51.5% 
  8. Seri Serdang: Malay 46.1% 
  9. Dusun Tua: Malay 53.3% 
  10. Chempaka: Malay 53.4%

Sweetie believes that the above 10 PAS Selangor seats will be very vulnerable to a rapacious (wakakaka, my cheeky word, not hers) DAP because the non-Malays make up between 40% and 50% of the voters in each seat - the now more apparent benefits for PAS in an alliance with DAP - and that PAS and UMNO will split the Malay votes, in which event the solid 100% non-Malay votes in a triangular contest will outnumber each portion of the split Malay votes and win the state constituency for DAP.

Another assumption - I am assuming DAP, PKR and Amanah will have an agreement not to pose a 3-corner fight, and that PKR and PAS will have that same agreement as well. wakakaka.

And really, it won't surprise me in the least if PKR also were to arrive at such an arrangement with the Mothership, wakakaka.

But jokes aside, what with the invincible feud between PAS and DAP, it is PKR's no-balls precarious stand astride two different vessels, with one leg on the boat with DAP & Amanah, and the other kaki on the PAS sampan, that makes us wonder WTF is PKR doing, and to which coalition it is committed to in its kangkang deformasi stand?

Anyway, let's move on.

Of the 10 vulnerable PAS seats above, let's take Morib out from DAP's consideration, as it's Hasnul Baharuddin's seat. Respect kawan sikitlah.

Of the remaining 9, there's only a snowflake's chance in hell that UMNO and PAS will willingly split the Malay votes for DAP. Both PAS and UMNO are quite capable of kowtim-ing the DAP threat between themselves.

Yes, don't think that only the Pakatan MK 2.0 knows how to kowtim-rize 3-corner fights. So stop having wet dreams.

However, there remains a remote possibility of Amanah splitting the Malay votes to DAP's favour, but as I just mentioned, its' only a REMOTE possibility as I don't believe Amanah wants to appear to the Selangor Heartland as a Malay-Muslim party that has sold out to the non-Malays, even if the DAP were to stand a Malay candidate.

So, of the 9 above, it's possible that DAP can battle it out on a one-to-one basis with PAS (and UMNO is most welcomed, wakakaka) in the following:

  1. Taman Templer: Malay 51.5%
  2. Seri Serdang: Malay 46.1%
  3. Dusun Tua: Malay 53.3%
  4. Chempaka: Malay 53.4%

... where the Malay votes in each is around or near 50%. Now, don't think that the DAP can't marshal some Malay votes to its banner especially if it stands reputable Malay candidates like Dr Bari in those seats.

The problem for DAP is that PKR will also want to lay claim to these seats (or as per its avaricious DNA, even more, wakakaka), but of course it cannot ignore Amanah.

But wait wait, the biggest balls-cruncher for PKR vis-a-vis those 9 or 10 seats named above as most vulnerable to PAS is its likely pact with PAS (notwithstanding DAP's refusal to work with PAS), because (recall, I told you earlier to remember this) how can PKR have a pact with PAS and yet contest in PAS' seats?

That's the drawback of having too many "friends" wakakaka. But it's a wonderful PKR-less golden opportunity for DAP, only if it can convince Amanah to 'share' with it a couple of the PAS' 15 seats.

F* PKR and returning to DAP's prospects - At MOST (MAX, TOPS) the DAP will likely be allocated 2 of the above 9 seats, namely, Taman Templar and Seri Serdang. The rest (13 of PAS' 15) is likely to be inherited by Amanah in the Pakatan MK 2.0's seat sharing. I am not sure how PKR will deal with or say to PAS on these seats if Amanah is given the "rights" to them? Anyway, that's PKR's problem.

Now, for those teary-eyed PKR supporters, don't be sad because your party will reclaim Kota Damansara and Semenyih which were won by BN only due to Pakatan f*up's, the former constituency caused by a thaam-sim (greedy, rapacious wakakaka) intrusive kacau PAS and the latter constituency by PSM’s S. Arutchelvan, which makes me believe PKR won't countenance the inclusion of PSM in Pakatan MK 2.0.

Sadly, neither DAP nor PKR had given way to PSM in Jelapang and Semenyih respectively, though the DAP has been so strong in Jelapang that it shoved both BN and PSM aside even in the 3-corner fight.

Anyway, PKR won't be badly off with its original 14 (assuming it can kow-tim Khalid Ibrahim in Port Klang) and the 2 in Kota Damansara and Semenyih. But how many of UMNO's 12 it wants to contest will be up to its MoU with Amanah and wakakaka PAS.

Hey, it may even end up with more ADUN than DAP in GE-14, wakakaka.


  1. Kaytee,first of all,we will all have to wait for the 1MDB dusts to settled.Then we will have to see the outcome.If the authorities can make a case of conspiracy of toppling the gomen by all means (cooking the books).That is conspiring with Clare Rewcastle,feeding her information (true or false) by informants (paid or planted within the various agencies) by opposition leaders and also paying her to do the dirty work.

    Then the two dudes from the Edge.Whether they will be charged remains to be seen.But the way the game is being played by the opposition,the sledge hammer will come down hard on them.Especially with samseng Zahid,who does not just wail or fuck around.

    If the gomen can prove and do managed to throw a dozen or so into Sungei Buloh,the direction of the wind might change.

    1. Making case by booking clare old boy. You read how rpk make grandma stories on how he's not be extradited nong nong time ago? hehehe.

      Toppling govt is part and parcel of political business. Ask kaytee what happened to one cibai named Whitlam.

      Heck, even nixon cant cover his arse over just 3rd rate burglary issues, najib thinks he can withstand shit

  2. The way it looks,if Bersih's Maria Chin has her way and the Bersih 4 rally go ahead as planned.In spite of objections (advice) from the mayor and police,this stuborn as a mule Maria Chin intends the rally to proceed as planned.

    They will surely clash with the police and people are going to get tear gassed,batoned and kick and punch around like animals.

    Why must these people pick the dates to coincide with the Merdeka Day celebrations?Why cannot postpone to next week or so? Looking for trouble?Just make sure not to wail like crybabies when the gorillas come a charging.

    1. Seriously, malaysians are too lembik......unlike the brazillians.......they don't give cibai fucking shit

      Fuck kaytee la.......ask him to talk to brazillians

      They will chop his little brother anytime

      This is funny......

      In Malaysia, we call it donation........hahaha

  3. I read Helen's blog on this, and I did my own analysis to work out the voters split for the 10 constituencies in GE13, using the assumption that all nons voted against UMNO. My results are in agreement with yours in that only 4 seats are possible DAP winners.
    Key to the data below:
    PAS (n) = % of voters who are non-Malays, presumably all voted for PAS
    PAS (m) = % of voters who are Malays and who voted for PAS
    UMNO (m) = % of voters who are Malays and who voted for UMNO

    The deduction is based on the following:
    PAS (n) + PAS (m) + UMNO (m) = 100%
    PAS (n) + PAS (m) - UMNO (m) = majority%

    Hypothetical deduction of voting pattern in GE13 for the 10 seats in question:
    N53 MORIB : PAS (n) 38.7%, PAS (m) 12.4%, UMNO (m) 48.9%; majority = 2.3%
    N45 SELAT KLANG : PAS (n) 36.1%, PAS (m) 17.6%, UMNO (m) 46.3%; majority = 7.5%
    N42 MERU : PAS (n) 39.8%, PAS (m) 21.7%, UMNO (m) 38.5%; majority = 23.0%
    N54 TANJUNG SEPAT : PAS (n) 44.3%, PAS (m) 7.2%, UMNO (m) 48.5%; majority = 3.1%
    N38 PAYA JARAS : PAS (n) 43.0%, PAS (m) 13.3%, UMNO (m) 43.7%; majority = 12.7%
    N20 LEMBAH JAYA : PAS (n) 45.7%, PAS (m) 13.3%, UMNO (m) 41.0%; majority = 17.9%
    N15 TAMAN TEMPLER : PAS (n) 48.9%, PAS (m) 8.7%, UMNO (m) 42.4%; majority = 15.1%
    N29 SERI SERDANG : PAS (n) 53.9%, PAS (m) 7.3%, UMNO (m) 38.8%; majority = 22.3%
    N23 DUSUN TUA : PAS (n) 46.7%, PAS (m) 7.7%, UMNO (m) 45.6%; majority = 8.8%
    N21 CHEMPAKA : PAS (n) 46.6%, PAS (m) 14.6%, UMNO (m) 38.8%; majority = 22.3%

    1) The assumption by Helen that Malay votes will split 50:50 for UMNO:PAS is unlikely to happen, as the data above shows Malays voting for UMNO constitute about 39% to 49% of electorate, against PAS 's 7% to 22%.
    2) Extrapolating to GE14 of three-cornered fights, just substitute DAP for PAS (n) above. You will see only 6 seats are vulnerable to capture by DAP, 2 of which by slim majorities.The remaining 4 are : N21 CHEMPAKA, N29 SERI SERDANG, N15 TAMAN TEMPLER, N20 LEMBAH JAYA, and this is same as your conclusions except for 1 constituency.

    And we cannot exclude the possibility that PAS may give way to UMNO and make it a straight fight with DAP, so the PAS (m) voters above may swing to UMNO and the chances of DAP will be even lower. UMNO will just tell the Malays that Islam is under threat from DAP Chinese to make the swing.

    The Helen/RPK scare of DAP takeover will only work based on unrealistic assumptions. For a writer reputed to be based on thorough analysis of data, her assumptions and conclusions are unacceptable.