Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Hulu Selangor - Indian votes vital

In my letter to Malaysiakini earlier this month, I wrote:

To conclude, the pros and cons for both BN and PKR candidates are just too numerous and varied to enumerate, where we need an expert like Kian Ming to do justice to a forecast on the likely by-election result. But perhaps a layperson’s simplified forecast by adopting the assumption that 70% of the Chinese and 25% of Indians still support Pakatan and thus PKR, leads us to the conclusion that PKR must win at least 50% of the Malay votes to scrape home, or we’ll witness another piece of déjà vu, that of G Palanivel repeating Partiban’s victory in the 2007 Ijok by-election.

This was of course before the dirty tricks campaign started. I believe the yamseng association has adversely affected Zaid Ibrahim's standing among the voters of the heartland. No matter what logic Pakatan uses to mitigate that bad image or whatever comparisan with UMNO yamseng kakis are drawn, it's too late - it's a damaged Zaid at the sharp end and the pious of the heartland will be troubled by the impact of UMNO's first strike.

Politics is dirty, more so when it's the Malaysian variety.

I now fear it is unlikely that Zaid will get the desired 50% of the Malay votes, unless Pak Haji Nik Aziz can work out a miracle for his Kelantan mate.

Polling experts Bridget Welsh and my matey Ong Kian Ming have different opinions. Welsh reckoned BN will win while Kian Ming thought PKR will, unless the party mucks up.

In Sin Chew’s The chances of winning Lim Sue Goan also suggested that PKR requires at least 50% of the Malay votes.

In a worst case scenario for Zaid Ibrahim where he receives only 40% of the Malay votes, Lim thinks it’s still winnable for Zaid if he gets 70% of Chinese votes and 50% of Indian votes.

So Lim and I share the expectation Zaid will receive 70% of Chinese support, but I am willing to stick my neck out and provide a slight increase in Chinese votes for PKR, up by another, say, 5%. Lim Tiong Lai and Koh Tsu Koon aren't exactly inspiring figures to persuade the Chinese to vote NathanKamal.

Assuming the yamseng dirty tricks campaign affects Zaid to an extent he gets only 40% Malay votes, he must then win 45% of the Indian votes (preferably 50%). This would be an increase of 20% from my original prediction of 25% - it's a big ask.

But of course I had based that prior to UMNO's arrogant humiliation of Palanivel (with the probable connivance of Mr Toupee). I believe there will be the likelihood of consequential intra-MIC sabotaging or at the very least passive non-support of NathanKamal.

So Zaid may still have a chance to go to Putrajaya if the Malay:Chinese:Indian votes for him turns out to be 40%:75%:45%.

Inasmuch as the Malay votes are crucial the Indian votes will be the deciding factor.

Will the Indians support Zaid or NathanKamal?


  1. when CSL is elected, some leader in p-r criticize mca for no moral. and who's starting personal attack thing. and mca election is not even p-r business to begin with.

    when the "kelantanese" politician got immoral background and the gov supporters dug it, the p-r leaders jump in saying that's personal attack. what a hypocrites. and the kelantanese is too trying to find fault with others.

  2. Nope, beg to differ, the "yam seng association" has not/won't damage the pkr candidate. The Malays, deep down, know a man's personal failings is between him and God and if he has repented, so be it.
    All this about yam seng is just background noise, by bloggers pro and anti-bn, politicians on both sides.
    From day one, I think, it was acceptance. I mean, the kampung folk look at Zaid and they see a Malay man most UNlike them.
    And you should see the BN man bantering with the kak and abang and pakcik and makcik.
    And the defection of the good dr, whom DSAI sniffed as "small fry" , is potentially more damaging than the yam seng factor. The doc is a local boy with some clout.
    I feel BN will win.
    Datuk Zaid is a good man. But the wrong candidate for HS. A square peg in a round hole. If we are talking Bukit Bintang, Petaling, Segambut, any time man.
    My two cents worth.