Who controls the South China Sea?
30 Dec 2024 • 10:00 AM MYT
China's 9 dash line claim of the South China Sea ( Image credit: The National Interest )
An article I read about recently posted the answer to the question of who owns the South China Sea by saying that “it is complicated.”
In my view, it is not complicated, it is just contested.
I think that as it currently stands, it is the West that controls the South China Sea.
Of course, the West today doesn’t claim that they control the South China Sea , but the rules and regulation that governs the South China Sea - like the concepts of Exclusive Economic Zones or the rights of littoral states - are concepts that were created and established by by the West.
Also, the west is also the power that was responsible for creating most if not all of the littoral states of the South China Sea in the post-World War 2 era. All the countries that are involved in the territorial dispute in the South China Sea be it Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are former colonies of the European colonial empires.
Through the institutions and systems that the West established in the littoral states of South China Sea, most of them being their former colonies, it was the West that was the defacto rulers of South China Seas in the 19th century.
If there is a dispute between the littoral states of the South China Sea over territories in the South China Sea, for example, the disputing states are expected to take their dispute to an institution that is controlled by the West, like the International Court of Justice in the Hague, Netherland, to settle it.
In the dispute for Batu Puteh between Malaysia and Singapore, for example, the matter was finally resolved in the ICJ.
If this dispute were to hypothetically happen in the 15th century, it might have likely been taken to the Beijing, not the Hague, to be resolved.
In the early 90s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the capitalist West – which is composed of America together with the former colonial powers of Europe – has emerged as the sole dominant superpower on the globe, and thus for the last 30 years, it can be said that it is the West that has been ruling the South China Sea, through its dominance as a global superpower and by proxy, through the influence it exerts on the systems and instutitions it has put in place it its former colonies that border the South China Seas.
It is precisely because it is the West that controls the South China Sea today, although it does not openly admit it, that The US, which has stitched together military alliances from Manila to Tokyo, has repeatedly vowed to defend its allies’ rights in the South China Sea.
The Americans might claim that they are only defending the South China Sea on behalf of their allies, but it is likely their control of the South China Sea that they are defending in the name of their allies.
Prior to the rise of the West and its precursor, the European Colonial power, it was likely China that controlled the South China Sea. The very name of the South China Sea itself is an indication that it is China that held dominion in the South China Sea. Other than that, that it was Chinese dynasties that installed new polities in the South China Sea in the 15th century, the Malacca Sultanate being one of them, is another indication that it was China that ruled the South China Sea in the 15th and 16th century, before the rise of the European Colonial power.
China however, had lost control of the South China Seas as it went into decline in tandem with the rise of the European Colonial Power. Like many of the nations that bordered the South China Sea, China also was subjugated by European colonial power by the 19th century.
Today however, China has risen back to prominence, after centuries of decline, and the now awakened dragon seems to be inclined to recover everything it has lost, including the control of the South China Sea.
The nine or ten dash line that China is using to claim most of the South China Sea is most likely based on the Chinese interpretation of its territorial right at a time when Medieval China was at its peak.
As to whether China has the right to assert its interpretation of its territorial right, well, the question can probably only be decisively answered by a contest of power.
The reason why the West is the one that has the right to interpret who has what territorial rights in the South China Sea today, is because the West is the incumbent global superpower and because the West had inherited the control of the South China Sea from its predecessor, the European Colonial Empire.
The reason the European Colonial Empire possessed the ability to control the South China Sea, is because it managed to stamp its imperium on the South China Sea by colonising almost of all the nations that bordered the South China Sea, and even subjugate the Qing dynasty, which was arguably the overlord of the South China Sea, until the advent of European Colonial power.
Going by that precedent, for China to wrest back the control of the South China Sea, it will have to assert its imperium on all or many of the states that border the South China Sea, and perhaps even defeat the West in a contest of power.
The world order, which is what is defining the status quo in the South China Sea region today, was written in the ashes of World War 2 by the victors of World War 2. To change the status quo, China will have to rewrite the world order by challenging the victors of World War 2, and it is the result of this contest that will decisively answer the question as to who rules the South China Sea.
If this dispute were to hypothetically happen in the 15th century, it might have likely been taken to the Beijing, not the Hague, to be resolved.
In the early 90s, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the capitalist West – which is composed of America together with the former colonial powers of Europe – has emerged as the sole dominant superpower on the globe, and thus for the last 30 years, it can be said that it is the West that has been ruling the South China Sea, through its dominance as a global superpower and by proxy, through the influence it exerts on the systems and instutitions it has put in place it its former colonies that border the South China Seas.
It is precisely because it is the West that controls the South China Sea today, although it does not openly admit it, that The US, which has stitched together military alliances from Manila to Tokyo, has repeatedly vowed to defend its allies’ rights in the South China Sea.
The Americans might claim that they are only defending the South China Sea on behalf of their allies, but it is likely their control of the South China Sea that they are defending in the name of their allies.
Prior to the rise of the West and its precursor, the European Colonial power, it was likely China that controlled the South China Sea. The very name of the South China Sea itself is an indication that it is China that held dominion in the South China Sea. Other than that, that it was Chinese dynasties that installed new polities in the South China Sea in the 15th century, the Malacca Sultanate being one of them, is another indication that it was China that ruled the South China Sea in the 15th and 16th century, before the rise of the European Colonial power.
China however, had lost control of the South China Seas as it went into decline in tandem with the rise of the European Colonial Power. Like many of the nations that bordered the South China Sea, China also was subjugated by European colonial power by the 19th century.
Today however, China has risen back to prominence, after centuries of decline, and the now awakened dragon seems to be inclined to recover everything it has lost, including the control of the South China Sea.
The nine or ten dash line that China is using to claim most of the South China Sea is most likely based on the Chinese interpretation of its territorial right at a time when Medieval China was at its peak.
As to whether China has the right to assert its interpretation of its territorial right, well, the question can probably only be decisively answered by a contest of power.
The reason why the West is the one that has the right to interpret who has what territorial rights in the South China Sea today, is because the West is the incumbent global superpower and because the West had inherited the control of the South China Sea from its predecessor, the European Colonial Empire.
The reason the European Colonial Empire possessed the ability to control the South China Sea, is because it managed to stamp its imperium on the South China Sea by colonising almost of all the nations that bordered the South China Sea, and even subjugate the Qing dynasty, which was arguably the overlord of the South China Sea, until the advent of European Colonial power.
Going by that precedent, for China to wrest back the control of the South China Sea, it will have to assert its imperium on all or many of the states that border the South China Sea, and perhaps even defeat the West in a contest of power.
The world order, which is what is defining the status quo in the South China Sea region today, was written in the ashes of World War 2 by the victors of World War 2. To change the status quo, China will have to rewrite the world order by challenging the victors of World War 2, and it is the result of this contest that will decisively answer the question as to who rules the South China Sea.
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