Saturday, April 14, 2018

China factor in GE14

Mahathir doesn't like investment from China and has frequently voiced his opposition against those Mainland Chinese investments, such as the Forest City condo-complex and ERCL.


He said if Pakatan wins GE14 and becomes the new government, he will review and re-negotiate all deals with China. He has put the sh*t on the market.

I suspect he is undermining the BN's foreign investment program which has Mainland Chinese content, more to spark fears in the Malay community against the Yellow Peril rather than being against Chinese investments per se.

Actually investments by China (including Hong Kong) in Malaysia for 2017 amounted to RM65bil, which was far far lower than investments from Singapore (RM116.3bil) and Japan (RM71.6bil).

But of course Japan has been Mahathir's favourite and I doubt he would never ever say anything other than arigato gozaimasu to his work ethics idols. He was so enamoured with things Japanese that he promoted and launched his Look East policy.


That policy was to change the Malay's mindset and work etiquette, but studies show he failed in his endeavour though it did succeed in making Malaysian LOOK EAST politically rather than just to the West.

The following extracts are from the conclusion of a Master's thesis by Wietske Overtoom at the Leiden University:


Banzai 

Mahathir's Look East policy came into existence, because of his believe in the problems he laid out in the Malay Dilemma and The Challenge. Mahathir was looking for a way to change the values of the Malays, which would allow them to be able to compete with the successful Chinese.

Mahathir stressed the need for a change of values and believed that Japanese values were the ones the Malays should aim for. When the “Look East” policy was initiated, it remained vague and there was no real document available. This makes it difficult to fully understand the implication of the “Look East” policy and also to assert successes or failures of the policy.

However, it was known that it was looking to emulate the successful countries, Japan and Korea. This meant a shift in international politics that did not aim at the traditional West, but at the East. However, more importantly, the policy intended to emulate the work ethics and values of those countries.

To realize this, the government subsidized studying in Korea and Japan and sought joint-venture with those countries. Mahathir was also inspired by the Sogoshoshas, which were state-led enterprises, that could help Mahathir with reaching his goal. The believe that Japan was the best example to follow was because of the economic success Japan had enjoyed after the second world war. [...]

However, taking Japan as an example for Malays to follow, was somewhat problematic. Japan shares few similarities with Malaysia and proved to be mainly involved with Malaysia for profitability. Thus the Japanese companies would not be focusing on a change of values or technology transfer, but more logically on securing their profits. This left negative feelings with some of the Malaysians.

Mahathir was very keen on making the Malays able to compete with the Chinese, but therefore made choices that were somewhat discriminatory against the Chinese.

He preferred Malays in his state-led projects and caused unequal competition against the Chinese who were not enjoying government sponsorship.

Furthermore, he chose to create projects in areas where the Chinese were most prominent and chose to increase his political aim towards the Islam. [...]

In conclusion, the Look East policy was not very effective in changing the Malays values into Japanese values simply by sending students to Japan or creating joint-venture with Japanese companies

BTW, did you know when he was PM, his strategic management guru was Kenichi Ohmae.


Kenichi Ohmae was one of the World's top expert in strategic management. My Uncles who were in the military were 'instructed' by the military commander at its staff college to buy Kenichi Ohmae's book on strategic management as part of their staff college training.

Meanwhile MM Online reported:

Umno sought to assure farmers in Ayer Hitam, touted as a bellwether constituency in the upcoming election, that Barisan Nasional (BN) was looking at China as a new emerging market for palm oil and rubber.

Following the European Union’s (EU) decision to ban the use of palm oil in biofuels from 2021, Ayer Hitam Umno division chief Datuk Samsol Bari Jamali said it was pertinent that Malaysia maintained a good cooperation with China, currently the second biggest importer of palm oil.


“This is due to the nature of the people in central Johor, especially in Ayer Hitam, which depends on palm oil, rubber plantation, and farming for income.

“Although most farmers are independent and will find means to ensure they will get the most value out of their lands, yet they are worried that their livelihood would be in jeopardy due to the ban. Hence why BN has been pushing for greater cooperation with China to market our product into their market,” Samsol told Malay Mail in an interview here.

The concern about Mahathir destabilising the market as a result of his seeming anti-China pronouncements has been such that Lim Kit Siang has emerged to quickly assuage concerned investors that Pakatan Harapan will not harm bilateral ties with China if it wins federal power in GE14.


29 comments:

  1. i agree with mahathir, dun trust the communist.

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  2. PROTON failed. PEWAJA failed. Multimedia Super Corridor failed. East Asian Economic Caucus failed. Buy British Last failed. The list is not exhaustive.

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  3. ECRL is the best example of what is wrong with the current Najib engagement with China, rather than China investment per se.
    I fully support an investigation of the terms of the agreements with China.
    China is not "investing" anything in the ECRL.. They are Soft Loans , fully repayable by the Malaysian EARL entity (hopefully ) from future revenue streams. If that does not materialise ... Gadai Body...
    The construction concrete, steel, rails , locomotives , rolling stock , signalling system....all purchased from China. Even construction workers from China.

    Malaysia has not had such Colonial-style projects since the days when the Union Jack flew over Malaya.

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  4. "Thus the Japanese companies would not be focusing on a change of values or technology transfer, but more logically on securing their profits."

    And so when the Yen appreciated tremendously and Mahathir did nothing, it was the Japanese's turn to say arigatou gozaimasu thus we had to continue paying off our Yen denominated debts for another 20 years.

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  5. I always wonder why the Black Cobra besides not having a liking towards China also do not like India, UK, US, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong (before 1997) etc.

    His favourite countries are Zimbabwe, Argentina, Japan, South Korea, France, Russia etc.

    Kaytee can you connect the Dots? If not, stop thrashing a dead horse story.

    He is just Anti-Communist and worried about Ahjibkor becoming a Maoist.

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    1. India, UK and USA communist?

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    2. Even China itself no longer follows Maoism. If Mao saw what his China had become, he'd be spinning in his glass Maosoleum.

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    3. And so the story continue after 20 years of yen debt Malaysians pay another 40 years of 1MDB mismanagement, oops..... false news

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    4. But this time the debts are denominated in RM.If they did anything funny with either currency like the Yen did, it will be to their disadvantage. The repayment would be... predictable.

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    5. A gaol term is still a gaol term whether you are required to carry hard labour with 2 meals or no hard labour with 1 meal ....... So now there is admission of guilt and no more denial of mismanagement?

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    6. Not when the factor changes. Take your gaol term for example. If the felon was convicted and has to spend 10 years in gaol. Say he does it on Earth, thats 10 earth years in gaol. But if he does it near a black hole the 10 years he spent will be 40-50 years back on Earth. He still spent 10 of his years in gaol but the factor changed the circumstances.

      Thats what the Yen appreciation did to our debts. Instead of paying off within 10 years (wild guess), we had to continue paying for another 20. To the Japanese, the Yen amount we paid back is the same as we borrowed but for us, the repayment is much much higher in RM value.

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    7. Wa lau-eh!

      Forex tautology @ earth & near blackhole.

      What about the same argument @ earth & near a whitehole?

      Think about it lah moron!

      My seed money that Mara used to waste on u is going down the drain.

      Lagi teruk, u r passing yr (mis)management knowledge to the students under yr care!

      No wonder lah - multiply the same scenario umpteen times, there u get all these unemployable 'graduates' loitering around malls.

      Karma indeed, 老鼠的儿子会打洞!

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    8. Theoretical physics is too complicated for such simple minds as CK, so I will take another relevant example. Here goes.

      Says CK took a loan of SGD 100k back in the 80s at then exchange rate of RM1 = SGD1. 25 years later he paid off SGD 50k, with another 50k remaining, and his term payment was rated at Rm2k per year. Now that exchange rate is RM3 = SGD1, how long is CK's payment term remaining? Is it another 25 years? NO!

      At current exchange rate, to pay off the remainder SGD50k requires another 75 years! The debts still held by CK is no longer RM50k but RM150k now!

      Do you see the folly of Mahathir's brilliant plan to borrow from the Japs now?

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    9. Pandai???

      Now apply yr cockagroo calculations to 1MDB's outstanding billion US$ nominated loans/bonds maturing in 2023.

      What do u get?

      Forex fluctuates based on world sopo changes. It's not a constant!

      Thus my recommendation of yr calculations based on whitehole assumption.

      U pilfering this idea from Forex Black Hole EA & yet only understand the concept hp6ly.

      U will lose yr underpants if u ever play this simulation.

      Wakakakaka…… don't play2 lah!

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    10. Wow. Didn't know even this explanation is too difficult for CK to grasp. Sorry but I have no idea how to dumb it down to your level. Its just not possible for my superior intellect.

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    11. As for 1MDB debts, mostly are denominated in RM, which goes back to my point above.

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    12. Moron, rf the two trenches of US$ denominated bonds

      1) International bonds: 1MDB, 4.4% 9mar2023, 3,000,000,000 USD (XS0906085179, Y6426NAA3)

      2) International bonds: 1MDB, 5.99% 2022, 1,750,000,000 USD (XS0784926270, Y64269AA4)

      U OBVIOUSLY know nuts about forex mechanism!

      Maybe just the game of Forex Black Hole EA!! But what's yr score?

      误人子弟,pitty those mat/minah under this hp6's teaching!

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    13. Wanna talk about 1MDB, here's what ur esteemed Tony Pua said:


      Because 1MDB simply does not have any more substantial tangible assets or cash in its books, the Malaysians taxpayer will have to pay for most of 1MDB’s still-outstanding debts including:
      1. RM5 billion 30-year bond guaranteed by the federal government issued in 2009;(Due only in the year 2039)
      2. US$3.5 billion 10-year bonds issued in 2012, now guaranteed by MOF Inc;(due in the year 2022)
      3. US$3 billion 10-year bond issued in 2013, guaranteed with a ‘Letter of Support’ issued by Finance Minister Najib Abdul Razak; (due in the year 2023)
      4. US$1.23 billion borrowed from IPIC in 2015, guaranteed by MOF Inc; (it is actually an advance on the settlement - not a loan but it is due to repay by end of 2017)
      5. RM800 million loan from Socso in 2010, guaranteed by the federal government; and
      6. RM2.4 billion sukuk issued in 2013, which have already been assumed by MOF. (due in 2022)
      The above sums up to RM8.2 billion and US$7.73 billion, (exchange rate USD1-RM4.33) or a combined total of RM41.7 billion.

      Versus:
      1. Remaining land in TRX and share of Lend Lease's LifeStyle's quarter - RM8 billion
      2. 100% of Bandar Malaysia land - RM26 billion
      3. Monetization of US$2.5 billion 1MDB's Fund Units - RM10.83 billion
      4. Claim on IPIC for US$3.5 billion in payments already made by 1MDB - RM15.17 billion
      Cash and assets totaling RM60 billion. I pity the fool who can't count and says 41.7 billion is more than 60 billion.

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    14. just one question if anyone can help - wasn't Tony Pua also in the PAS?

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    15. U meant PAC!

      De-OSA-ised the report, then we talk!

      Otherwise, moron confuses future property earnings/GDV as incomes, chelseacat-ied 1MDB units as solid cash, transferred debts to MoF as settlements!

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    16. Perhaps he got too confused and walked into the wrong party until they booted him out unceremoniously. Hohohoho!

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    17. @CK. You mean this report [PUBLIC ACCOUNTS COMMITTEE (PAC)’s
      REPORT ON GOVERNANCE MANAGEMENT CONTROL OF 1MALAYSIA DEVELOPMENT BERHAD (1MDB)]?http://www.parlimen.gov.my/pac/review/docs-110-116.pdf

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  6. I don't even bother to read the whole passage as I knew that kaytee avoid talking about anything Najib like actors refuses to say anything about the scottish play like

    Macbeth......hahahahahaha

    Kaytee......I am wondering if it bring bad luck to you if you talk about Najib.....Tell us the truth

    Is it kaytee when saying about Najib.......calamity befell Kaytee

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h--HR7PWfp0

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    1. Rule Number one - you never talk bad about your benefactor.... that's why.

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    2. Yada yada.....bad luck for kaytee. We should from time to time if kaytee still keep his 3" dick

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  7. Wakakakaka……

    If u guys can read mamak's tea leaves well, u won't be farting now!

    Wordsmith's play about mamak's look-east policy is way past its shelf life. The LE policy expired when mamak found out:

    1) Mitsubishi motor played him out by not doing the right technology transfer to Proton time after time.

    2) Kawasaki HE failed the pre-oxidised rotating kiln construction at Perwaja steel despite numerous promises & postponement.

    Thus, mamak wasn't blur2 about working with foreign govt.

    The purchase of oil palm by the Chinese has a lot more to do with Robert Kuok's Wilmar than a direct country to country deal. FGV should be able to confirm that. So, mamaks farts has very little effect here.

    The Chinese property projects in Johore were part of the Chinese maritime route safeguarding due to the close military cooperations between RedDot & US.

    It's less critical now as:

    1) with RedDot changing tunes toward China now

    2) the successful extraction of methane hydrate in South China Sea

    3) the completion of Sino-Myanmar pipelines refers to the oil and natural gas pipelines linking Myanmar's deep-water port of Kyaukphyu (Sittwe) in the Bay of Bengal with Kunming in Yunnan province of China.

    Hence, the Chinese govt is not that lenient about pouring more money into these projects by their companies anymore.

    Ditto with ECRL if mamak wants to renegotiate the terms!

    Why r u spreading fake news to frighten M'sians?

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  8. And not to mention the involvement johore royalty.

    Hahahaha.....kaytee need to fulfill his kpi for najib

    Do hantam sini sana but never never mention najib.....i mean rosmah....i mean macbeth

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  9. When the China projects go Bad, as many will due to commercial economics being set aside in their design, China will exert its muscles to ensure they get their money's worth - in kind if not in cash.

    At that point the Malaysia Chinese will be the ones who bear the burden of the Malay backlash.

    The Malays cannot do anything to the China superpower's economic and military might, but they can and will take it out on the local Chinese.

    Ktemoc is safe in Sydney.

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    1. Exactly the thinking of most educated local Chinese.

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