Why Israel will most likely retaliate against Iran

Why Israel will most likely retaliate against Iran


Apr 16, 2024

Nehru Sathiamoorthy


No one is saying it out loud, but the problem between Israel and Iran is based more on identity than it is on self-interest. A problem that is based on self-interest can be reconciled, but a problem that is based on identity cannot. When you have a conflict of identity with another party, it is a zero-sum game – either they exist, or you do, because the both of you will be making it impossible for each other to exist simultaneously.

The problem between Ukraine and Russia, for example, is based more on self-interest than it is on identity. There is some problem of identity between Ukraine and Russia – Ukraine might identify more with the west than it does with Russia, which is unacceptable to Russia – but on the most part, the problem between Russia and Ukraine is based on self-interest, in the sense that Ukraine believes that its self-interest is better served by it being closer to the west than it is to Russia. Russia is waging war on Ukraine to convince Ukraine that its beliefs are wrong – that if it identifies with the west more than it does with Russia, its self-interest will suffer – at some point, when either Russia manages to convince Ukraine that it is not in its self interest to being intimate with the west or when Ukraine manages to prove to Russia that there is nothing that Russia can do about who it wants to be close to – their war will be over.

It is because the war between Russia and Ukraine is one that is based on self interest rather than identity that their war is chiefly fought between soldiers. The Russian people and the Ukrainian citizens do not have deep seated hatred towards each other. They just have a dispute with each other. To settle their dispute, they have gone to war. Once the war concludes, their dispute will end and the Russians and the Ukrainians will leave behind their animosity and develop amity towards each other instead.

On the other hand, the animosity between Israel and Iran is based on identity more than it is about self-interest.

Some people are saying that the conflict between Israel and Palestine, which is dragging Iran into the fray, is due to a desire to take possession and control of vast oil and natural gas reserves in the area of conflict, but even if this is true, this is not the main reason for their conflict.

The main reason for their conflict has to do with a conflict of identity.

You have a conflict of identity with another person when you find yourself to be unable to be who you are for as long as the person that you are in conflict with insist on being who they are. As it is with individuals, so it is with a country.

When you have a conflict of identity, the conflict becomes total and zero sum.

In the conflict between Israel and Palestine for example, we can see how the situation has become a case of a total war. In Gaza, it is not just the Israeli soldiers that are fighting the Palestinian warriors. The war in Gaza has become a free for all conflict that involves the entirety of Israel and all of Palestine. Every man, woman and child are involved in their war. This is why Israel has no qualms in killing even the Palestinian civilians, be they women or children.

The aim of each side in this war is not only to work out an outcome that is advantageous to their self-interest, but to annihilate their opponent. The Israelis and Palestinians have come to a point where they realise that the only way that they will be able to be who they are, is if the other side doesn’t exist. The other side cannot exist, each of them believe, because as long as the other side insists on being who they are, they will not be able to be who they are.

Why is the problem between Israel and Palestine, and by extension, the problem between the Jews and the Muslims, irreconcilable?

At the core, I reckon the problem stems from their article of faith.

Both the Jews and the Muslims belong to a monotheistic faith that shares the same one god. One god can only have one people. For the Muslims to believe that they are the one true people of the one true god, they must at least subjugate the Jews or at least, not have the Jews subjugate them. It will be next to impossible for the Muslims to believe that they are the one true people of the one true god, if it is Israel that subjugates them.

That Israel is perceived to be the ones that are subjugating the Palestinian are thus seen as an untenable position for the Muslim world.

It is for this reason that the issue of Palestine, small as it is on the scale of global conflict, is treated with disproportionate interest by the Muslim world.


The war that Israel is waging in Gaza is not just a war against Palestinians, but a war against all of the Muslim world.

The Muslim world is like a family with a hundred brothers. Israel is beating one of the brothers, called Palestine, to death, in Gaza, while making the remaining 99 brothers watch helplessly, to break the spirit of the entire family.

When you watch your brother get beaten to death while you and your remaining brothers did nothing to stop it, your family will eventually break up. Slowly, each of you will go your separate ways and stop identifying with your family.

In the same way, if the rest of the Muslim nations watches in helplessly as Israel commits genocide in Gaza, the Muslim world will eventually break up. Slowly, Islamic countries like Bangladesh or Indonesia or Uzbekistan, will stop seeing itself as a part of the Muslim World, and start seeing itself as a self contained nation state all by itself.

Israel has crossed the Rubicon by waging the war in Gaza. It will not stop until the Muslim World is broken apart.

Iran is likely one of the eldest of the 99 brothers, who is trying to step in to prevent Palestine from getting beaten to death and keep the Muslim world intact, but if Iran is also beaten by Israel, while the remaining 98 brothers watch and do nothing, as sure as night follows the day, the Muslim identity will crumble.

Because Israel is likely seeking to break the Muslim world apart and cause the Muslim identity to weaken and fade away, it will likely be desirous of dragging Iran to war.

It attacked the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1 precisely to drag Iran into the war.

Now that Iran has retaliated against Israel on April 14, it is unlikely that Israel will not respond against the Iranian retaliation.

Iran is making it sound as if it merely launched the attack on Israel on April 14, to show its strength without actually intending to harm Israel, to persuade Israel to not try to provoke it in the future, but Israel will most likely respond against the Iranian attack anyway, because it want to provoke Iran and drag Iran to war.

It is only if Iran enters the war, and Israel beats both Iran and Palestine to death, while the remaining 98 brothers watch in silence, that it will be able to break apart the entire Muslim identity, and it is when the entire Muslim identity is broken, then only will the Jewish identity be able to be itself in peace.