Opinion: Mahathir is wrong, Umno's best interest lies in remaining with the unity government

Opinion: Mahathir is wrong, Umno's best interest lies in remaining with the unity government




TheRealNehruism
Writer. Seeker. Teacher

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That former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is using the Kemaman by election results to predict that Umno will be wiped out in the 16th general election if it doesn’t sever ties with DAP and return to struggle for race, country, likely reveals more about Mahathir than it does about Umno.


The result of the Kemaman by election is certainly an indication that the problem that has plagued Umno from the day that Anwar and Mahathir feuded in 1998 is continuing to debilitate it till today.


From 1998 onwards, in the aftermath of the Anwar- Mahathir feud, Umno has ceased to be the sacred party of the Malays.


It is because Umno has ceased to command the confidence of the Malays in 1998 that Mahathir had to resign in 2003.


For a while, it looked like the resignation of Mahathir would be enough to reconcile the Malays with Umno, but the reconciliation did not last long. Although Mahathir’s successor, Pak Lah, started off promisingly, by sweeping 198 of the 222 seats for the Umno led BN in the 2004 elections, he had lost most of what Umno and BN had gained by the 2008 election.


Pak Lah’s losses, which saw Umno and BN losing the two thirds majority in the parliament for only the second time in its history, resulted in Pak Lah being dethroned and Najib being installed as the Prime Minister in 2009.


Najib's troubled reign ended in 2018 when for the first time, a coalition that was not led by Umno was installed as the government of the day.


Since 2018, Umno has played the role of either the second fiddle or the opposition in the country.


More crucially, its reputation as the sacred party of the Malays has taken such a beating, that at this point in time, it certainly looks doubtful as to whether it would ever be able to regain its lost reputation.


Before Anwar and Mahathir feuded, only Pas could challenge the position of Umno as the party of the Malays, and that too by a long shot.


Today, there are half a dozen Malay parties that can claim to represent the Malays, and half of these parties likely have a stronger claim in representing the Malays than Umno.


As it stands today, Umno is behind Pas, Bersatu and PKR in representing the Malays.


Judging from the way that it performed in all the by-elections that has been held post GE 15, including the recently concluded Kemaman by-elections, it is doubtful as to whether Umno will ever be able to reverse its fortune unless it does something substantial to turn things around.



Mahathir’s advice that Umno return to fighting for race, religion and country however, is unlikely to reverse its fortune simply because fighting for race, religion and country is a crowded field. Everybody from Pas to Bersatu to Pejuang are clamouring to do it, and if Umno's joins them in the game that they are playing, it will have to join them as a follower, not the leader.


It is precisely because Umno felt that it was crowded and overshadowed that it decided to sever ties with Bersatu and Pas and face the general election last year on its own. If it takes Mahathir’s advice and re-joins Bersatu, it is going to have to collaborate with Bersatu and Pas once again, which will then mire it in the same problem that it faced when it collaborated with them the first time around.


Insanity, according to Einstein, is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result.


If Umno listens to Mahathir, the only thing that will happen to it is that it is going to drive itself insane.


Rather than listen to Mahathir, it might perhaps be better for Umno to look past its current state of decline, and take a longer view of the future. If Umno takes a long-term view of the future, it will likely see that its best interest lies in remaining with PH and the unity government.


Umno’s main problem right now is not that it isn’t fighting for race, religion and country, as Mahathir is suggesting, but that it is being led by the immensely unpopular Zahid Hamidi, who is considered a borderline traitor by the Malay electorate. Just removing Zahid, and bringing back the likes of Khairy Jamaluddin or Hishammuddin Hussein might be enough to revive its fortune substantially, even if it does not revive it in full measure.


Regardless of what Mahathir says, Umno's problem is not that it is collaborating with Dap, but that it is collaborating with Dap from a junior position. If it was collaborating with Dap from a senior position, the Malays will probably not find it that difficult to accept Umno and Dap being on the same side.


In the current scheme of things, Umno probably ranks fourth in importance in the unity government, after PKR, DAP and maybe even GPS.


This ranking however is not written in stone. With more confidence inspiring leadership and a better strategy, Umno might fare better in the next general election, and if it fares better, there is no reason why it cannot not move up the ranking, or even become the leader of the unity government.


The chances of Umno bettering its result in the next general election is actually better if it remains in the unity government than in joining PN or going its own way.


If it joins PN, Umno is going to be fishing in the same pond with Bersatu and Pas, which will limit the number of seats that it can win, even under the best-case scenario.


If it goes its own way and takes on PN and PH, it is doubtful as to how much of a headway it can make in a three-cornered fight, even if it manages to reform, reinvent and reinvigorate itself.



If it stays with the unity government and improves however, it will likely be the main party in the unity government that will face-off against Pas and Bersatu. If Umno is led by someone other than Zahid Hamidi, it will almost certainly fare better against Pas or Bersatu in a straight fight.


Umno doesn’t even need to win by a big margin to change its fortune. Umno currently holds 26 seats in the parliament, while PKR holds 31 and Dap 40. With some luck, change, discipline and planning, just a small shift in these numbers can cause remarkable changes in the position of Umno in the hierarchy of the unity government.


Mahathir is probably just advising Umno about fighting for race, religion and country because he lives in a world that no longer exists. Fighting for race and religion might have been how Mahathir rose in the 60s, but the 60s is a time that has long passed. Today if Umno decides to fight the way that Mahathir fought when he was making a name for himself, it will just end up competing in a crowded field for a smaller and older audience.



Also, there is something in Mahathir's advice to Umno that makes me feel that there is something about Umno that still rubs the grand old man in the wrong way. Umno might be down, but that is not enough to satisfy Mahathir. Until he sees Umno wiped out, he will probably not be able to rest his eyes in peace.


As for Umno, ironically, to avoid the prediction of its founder and former leader from coming true, the last thing it should do is take Mahathir's advice.


Mahathir might recognise that Umno is in trouble, but it is Mahathir that caused Umno to be in trouble in the first place and Mahathir is likely more interested to bury Umno when it is done, rather than lift it up.


To save itself from the quagmire it is in, Umno should perhaps stop mourning the past and look ahead at the future.


Yes, in the past, Umno had a golden time as the sacred party of the Malays. But the past is over. The world has changed. Umno can’t turn back time to relive that age.


What it can do however, is change its leadership, commit to being a part of the unity government and focus on improving its position in the unity government .

Nehru Sathiamoorthy is the author of “While Waiting for the World to end”. He was a columnist at FMT and a frequent contributor to the South China Morning Post, Malaysia-Today, MalaysiaNow, MalaysiaKini and Focus Malaysia.