Umno seen as stronger party if GE15 clash with Bersatu happens, but will it matter who wins?
Oh said a political landscape where both Umno and PAS collectively win a significant number of seats would possibly result in a government that is more supremacist, conservative and religious in its outlook. ― Picture courtesy of Oh Ei Sun
Oh Ei Sun, senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, said Umno has the capability to run in GE15 without Bersatu and even up against Bersatu.
“Umno can actually afford to go it alone, because Umno has all the traditional conservative support, it has all the election machinery, whereas Bersatu has neither,” he told Malay Mail when contacted.
If Umno were to run in GE15 with PAS as its partner, Oh said Umno would likely either maintain the number of seats won in 2018 or increase its haul, while Bersatu would not be expected to win many seats and would likely not exceed the number of seats it had won in 2018.
In such a scenario of an Umno-Bersatu clash in GE15, Oh said the federal Opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) would be unlikely to do very well in seats where Malay voters form the majority or significant portion of the population.
“Most of the Malay votes would go to either of the three parties, namely Umno, Bersatu and PAS. Mainly Umno and PAS, to a much lesser extent, Bersatu, unless as I’ve said, Muhyiddin does a very good job, thereby improving Bersatu’s prospects. I don’t see how the Opposition, namely the PH side, could make significant inroads in Malay-majority constituencies. So yeah, it is a question of who is taking the leading role in the next government among these three Malay parties,” he said.
Commenting on the possible outcome depending on the combination of overlaps in Malay-majority seats, Oh said: “If it is Umno vs PAS, I think the Opposition could make inroads, that’s how they won the 2018 general election; but if it’s Umno vs Bersatu, I think it doesn’t quite matter. If it’s Umno vs PAS vs Pakatan, then Pakatan perhaps could squeeze a win. But if it’s Umno vs Bersatu vs Pakatan, I think it’s still very much in Umno’s favour.”
Noting the significant number of conservative Malay voters which Malay parties would have to court and PAS itself which both Umno and Bersatu would have to court, Oh said the country is already heading towards a more conservative direction.
Oh said a political landscape where both Umno and PAS collectively win a significant number of seats would possibly result in a government that is more supremacist, conservative and religious in its outlook, but noted that this does not mean that Bersatu is a “moderating factor”: “In fact, Bersatu is trying its best to imitate or even surpass Umno in terms of accommodating PAS, that’s why you have all these increasingly religious-inspired measures being rolled out.”
Whether or not Umno or Bersatu wins in GE15 clashes, Oh said the country would still be steering towards a conservative pathway, with the only difference being a matter of how fast Malaysia goes down that route: “One way or the other, we are going into a more conservative direction. With Umno, it is already a very racially-supremacist party so of course it will just continue along that route. I think it’s a question of speed, Umno would just go on, and Bersatu would also catch up, but eventually I think it would be more or less the same.”
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“Umno can actually afford to go it alone, because Umno has all the traditional conservative support, it has all the election machinery, whereas Bersatu has neither,” he told Malay Mail when contacted.
If Umno were to run in GE15 with PAS as its partner, Oh said Umno would likely either maintain the number of seats won in 2018 or increase its haul, while Bersatu would not be expected to win many seats and would likely not exceed the number of seats it had won in 2018.
In such a scenario of an Umno-Bersatu clash in GE15, Oh said the federal Opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) would be unlikely to do very well in seats where Malay voters form the majority or significant portion of the population.
“Most of the Malay votes would go to either of the three parties, namely Umno, Bersatu and PAS. Mainly Umno and PAS, to a much lesser extent, Bersatu, unless as I’ve said, Muhyiddin does a very good job, thereby improving Bersatu’s prospects. I don’t see how the Opposition, namely the PH side, could make significant inroads in Malay-majority constituencies. So yeah, it is a question of who is taking the leading role in the next government among these three Malay parties,” he said.
Commenting on the possible outcome depending on the combination of overlaps in Malay-majority seats, Oh said: “If it is Umno vs PAS, I think the Opposition could make inroads, that’s how they won the 2018 general election; but if it’s Umno vs Bersatu, I think it doesn’t quite matter. If it’s Umno vs PAS vs Pakatan, then Pakatan perhaps could squeeze a win. But if it’s Umno vs Bersatu vs Pakatan, I think it’s still very much in Umno’s favour.”
Noting the significant number of conservative Malay voters which Malay parties would have to court and PAS itself which both Umno and Bersatu would have to court, Oh said the country is already heading towards a more conservative direction.
Oh said a political landscape where both Umno and PAS collectively win a significant number of seats would possibly result in a government that is more supremacist, conservative and religious in its outlook, but noted that this does not mean that Bersatu is a “moderating factor”: “In fact, Bersatu is trying its best to imitate or even surpass Umno in terms of accommodating PAS, that’s why you have all these increasingly religious-inspired measures being rolled out.”
Whether or not Umno or Bersatu wins in GE15 clashes, Oh said the country would still be steering towards a conservative pathway, with the only difference being a matter of how fast Malaysia goes down that route: “One way or the other, we are going into a more conservative direction. With Umno, it is already a very racially-supremacist party so of course it will just continue along that route. I think it’s a question of speed, Umno would just go on, and Bersatu would also catch up, but eventually I think it would be more or less the same.”
[very long article continues in parts ..... to be posted separately .....]
It is a mistake to think all Malays are Race and Religion zombies.
ReplyDeleteThat is how almost all political pundits wrongly predicted that PAS would siphon off Pakatan Harapan votes in GE14, when it actually siphoned off UMNO votes.
Many no doubt are Race and Religion Zombies , but it is a finite and by no means overwhelming majority.
So, if some combination of UMNO , PAS and Bersatu fight it out in GE15, the Race and Religion Zombie vote will be split 2 or 3 ways.
The remainder will likely vote for Pakatan Harapan or stay at home play Congkak.
eat grass umno still got machine ka?
ReplyDeleteGuys I know in UMNO are very frank about the matter.
DeleteNo way the engine can move without "minyak".
Even the lowliest campaign helpers can expect free packed meals , bus fare and motorbike petrol allowance.
The "Compensation" escalates rapidly as you go up the Party hierarchy.
That is how you got African-kleptocrat level assets at Najib-level.