Saturday, June 23, 2007

General election & Malay-majority constituencies

malaysiakini provided in an article an overview of the general election prospects for the main parties in Peninsula.

The news item by Nash Rahman and Muda Mohd Noor talked of a supposedly united UMNO being assertively confident, comfortable and combat-ready for the election which may be as early as August.

Nash-Muda went as far as to suggest UMNO on its won will garnered the necessary number of seats to maintain its two-thirds majority in parliament.

I have also read another malaysiakini article that suggested the GE may well be held, say, a couple of weeks before the 50th anniversary of our nation’s independence, all designed for a resounding victory and a sweet celebration on 31st August and of course the consolidation of AAB’s by-then unbreachable position as UMNO president - obviously marvellous for the projection of his enhanced power and then-undeniable credentials as supreme party leader into UMNO's future which will ensure the smooth ascension of SIL.

In fact, I recall reading a malaysiakini (or another news portal’s) article which did (unwittingly or otherwise) a positive PR on SIL as a force of, I think the term used was, ‘light’ (as in illumination) - can you believe that?

I believe there was even a spin that the RM9.2 million gained from some 'heavenly manna’ was used to build up a solid network/support for dear old FIL, who was then a wee shaky within his own party. How touching.

Two-thirds majority in parliament on its own? How about the other parties that will (or should be) contesting in the Malay-majority constituencies?

The Nash-Muda article discussed a besieged PAS which would be forced to focus on holding on to its precarious position in Kelantan, to the neglect of its candidates elsewhere. This prediction means that PAS’ uncomfy position and Kelantan-inward looking strategy would leave the doors wide open elsewhere for a currently united, focused and hungry UMNO – unless of course (journalists always have a caveat in case their analyses bombed) UMNO suffers a party top leadership crisis.

Hmmm, I wonder whether PAS will be praying to the Almighty for that to happen?

I have a slight, only slight, mind you, (KT learning about caveats) disagreement with their analysis on PAS, because I recall that in 2004 PAS could have done well in Kedah, if not for a jolly bit of gerrymandering, and I just wonder whether there may be a little discontent among UMNO Kedah in the wake of the sabotage of Dr Mahathir’s attempt to get himself elected as a divisional delegate to the last party general assembly?

So PAS may yet demonstrate a significant showing in Kedah. But yes, I anticipate the counter arguments against KTemoc's 'could have' and 'if'.

However, if the Nash-Muda analysis is well founded, this could spell doom, nay, annihilation for PKR, as UMNO will undoubtedly bring the whole weight of its mighty election machine to bear on the splinter group of 1998.

As the Chinese Penangites would say, charm ch’au tnooi keen or, to remove the grass for good, dig out its entire root – 'root' in this political sense would be PKR's leadership.

Also PKR is, as we know, currently facing a monumental crisis as its members, or more correctly erstwhile members, have abandoned KD (Kapal Defacto) Reformasi by the droves.

And it’s not just ‘those’ Indians or some youth members aligned with out-of-favour Ezam, or even some UMNO sleepers within PKR, but its original No 3 member, with a membership card of No: 003, Abdul Rahman Othman.

I suspect former PKR treasurer Abdul Rahman to be an obviously unhappy and perhaps disgruntled presidential candidate who mysteriously (like Nalla?) ‘had to withdraw’ at the last minute from the party polls, which action automatically made Dr Wan Azizah the party president in an uncontested election.

For more on resignation of Abdul Rahman read Members abandoning PKR ship.

Next, the Chinese-majority constituencies ........


  1. UMNO Uber Alles

    Yeah, we all deserve the government we vote for.

    Johor fellas, don't complaint about the crime wave
    Penang fellas, don't complaint about the shitty transport system
    PJ fellas, don't complaint about the ever increasing tolls.
    Etc. etc.
    YOU GET THE GOVERNMENT THAT YOU VOTE FOR, remember that on polling day.

  2. if election is called this year, the BN chinese based parties will not fare very well, but UMNO will have not much problems winning most of the rural seats.

    If election is called next year, then the BN chinese based parties will do better ( the Chinese voters have short memories) but UMNO will have to face the a much strengthened PKR.

    If UMNo is thinking about itself, it will call election this year. If UMNo is thinking about the component parties of BN, it will call an election next year.

    My bet is it will call an election this year, especially with the increase in salsry for civil servants next months.

    Next couple of months, there will be goodies dispensed, including a slight decrease in petrol price.

  3. Anyway, the BN is sure to make 100% of all votes in the fastest growing race in Malaysia: the "phantom voters".
    Look out for their manifestations:
    - I look forward to Pos Malaysia losing the postal votes from Lumut again. This will be the fifth time in a row.
    - look out for frenetic record participation rates in areas likely to turn to the opposition (Penang, Terengganu, Kelantan), while BN bastions will have very low turnout (Johor). I advise the BN to ensure they do not do above 100% voter turnout ;)
    - do not forget the other faithful constituency of the BN: the postal votes, which always score 90% or more BN.

    "Democracy" they call it. Best joke all around.

  4. Ktemoc: You are one poorly informed dude.

  5. In spite of a few pretensions to being "independent", this sounds an awful lot like a paid-for UMNO advertisement.

  6. Anonymous said...

    In spite of a few pretensions to being "independent", this sounds an awful lot like a paid-for UMNO advertisement.

    Even without this paid-for UMNO advertisement, Umno and BN will continue to rule this country.

    For simple majority, you just count votes from Sabah, Sarawak and Johor.. Wanna bet?!

  7. I disagree with the view that the Chinese have short memories (if GE to be held next year). How can they have short memories when they are perpetually marginalised in business contracts and harassed in their business licenses, talk to them on the ground. The Chinese are being targetted in the spa health businesses, pasar malam, VCD dealings, gambling dealings and a host of shady joint businesses. Not mentioning, chinese medium enterprises without bumi share are excluded from business tenders and contracts dealing with government related service providers. No more short memories, the Chinese, especially from urban towns and cities are ready and anxious to vote, come the next polling day.

  8. I disagree with the view that the Chinese have short memories -- they have NO memories at all! This explains the confounding reason why they continue to vote for BN component parties that support(!) the racist NEP

  9. GE in August? Hehehe! Sure or not? Before Budget 2008 and UMNO AGM? And one more.....the honeymoon is still on-lah!!! Three months....honeymoon....mana cukup?