Majority of ASEAN people favor China over U.S., survey finds

Nikkei Asia:

Majority of ASEAN people favor China over U.S., survey finds

In a first, Beijing becomes Southeast Asia's preferred choice over Washington

China is increasing its economic clout in Southeast Asia as its rivalry with the U.S. intensifies.
TSUBASA SURUGA, Nikkei staff writer

April 2, 2024 12:00 JST


SINGAPORE -- Over half of Southeast Asians would now prefer to align with China over the U.S. if ASEAN were forced to choose between the rival superpowers, a regional survey by a Singapore-based think tank showed Tuesday, reflecting Beijing's growing influence in the region.

According to the State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey, compiled by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, 50.5% of respondents opted for China and 49.5% preferred the U.S. if ASEAN had to pick sides -- the first time Beijing edged past Washington since the annual survey started asking the question in 2020.

Last year's survey showed 38.9% preferred China and 61.1% chose the U.S.

The think tank's flagship survey polls people from the private and public sectors, as well as academics and researchers in Southeast Asia. Hence, it presents the prevailing attitudes among those in a position to inform or influence policy on regional issues.

"It seems like this is the beginning of a trend as ... this is the first time China has actually [edged past the U.S.]," Danny Quah, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said on Tuesday during an online seminar on the latest annual report. "But if we look at the underlying data, it is actually more like a seesaw pattern than a trend."

Among the 10 countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the possible alignment to China was most evident among respondents from Malaysia, at 75.1%, followed by Indonesia and Laos at 73.2% and 70.6%. They all have benefited significantly from China's Belt and Road infrastructure initiative and robust trade relations.

China has been Malaysia's top trading partner for over a decade and has invested billions across key sectors. Last year, the Malaysian government said the Chinese automaker Geely, which holds a 49.9% stake in local partner Proton, would invest around $10 billion in Malaysia's automaking hub in the western state of Perak.

Reflecting Indonesia's strong economic ties, President-elect and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto on Monday met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in his first overseas visit after winning the election. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy opened the region's first high-speed railway, which was jointly built with China.

Meanwhile, Chinese state-owned companies are stepping up investments in power infrastructure in Laos, which counts Beijing as its top investor.

Conversely, the U.S. has seen a decline in its popularity as the preferred superpower.

Washington gained strong support from the Philippines and Vietnam at 83.3% and 79%, which in part reflects tensions the two have with China due to overlapping claims in the South China Sea.

However, a separate question regarding Washington's Southeast Asia policy revealed that 38.2% feel the level of U.S. engagement with Southeast Asia has decreased under the administration of President Joe Biden, topping the 25.2% who said it has increased.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund, a U.S.-based think tank, noted the decline in trust and perception of decreased engagement from the U.S. is notable, adding that its performance has been "a disappointment."

"There is a high level of expectation in Southeast Asia and desire for U.S. engagement, particularly different kinds of engagement than the U.S. is actually offering," Glaser said. As an example, she raised the Biden administration's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) that lacks the concept of market access, which involves reducing or eliminating tariffs.

Yet the survey showed that Southeast Asians do not want to choose sides at all. Asked how ASEAN should respond to the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, just 8% said the bloc has to choose between them because remaining neutral is impractical, while 46.8% said it should prioritize bolstering its resilience and unity to counter pressure from both the U.S. and China.

Other findings of the survey include that 59.5% of the respondents see China as the most influential economic power in Southeast Asia, far ahead of the U.S. at 14.3%. Meanwhile, 43.9% said China is the most influential political power in the region, versus America's 25.8%.

"[The report] is a statement of the fact that people think China has become the most influential economic power," said Quah of NUS. "But at the same time ... levels of concern about the degree of influence are actually extremely high."

He added, "The fact that China is acknowledged as most influential does not mean acceptance of them, similarly if it were the U.S."

The survey was conducted between Jan. 3 and Feb. 23, collecting answers from 1,994 people. Among the respondents, 33.7% were from the private sector; 24.5% from the government; 23.6% from academia, think tanks and research institutions; 12.7% from nongovernment organizations and media; and the remaining 5.6% from regional or international organizations.