by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Mar 04, 2026 - 11:40 AM
Here are the most critical developments unfolding in the US-Iran conflict:
CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say: CNN
State Department securing military aircraft, charter flights to get Americans out of Middle East
Iran International is claiming (unverified) Iran's Assembly of Experts chose Mojtaba Khamenei as new Ayatollah under heavy IRGC pressure to ensure hardline continuity and regime stability after his father's death
Drone hits CIA station in Saudi Arabia, also reportedly a consulate in Dubai. WaPo: A suspected Iranian drone attack hit the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia in what would amount to a significant symbolic victory for the Islamic Republic as it lashes out at U.S. targets and personnel across the Middle East.
IAEA's Grossi says there has been no evidence of Iran building a nuclear bomb; Iran's large stockpile of near-weapons grade enriched Uranium and refusal to grant IAEA full access are cause for serious concern
Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime. Future insurgency fragmentation and Iraq-style nightmare coming to Iran?
Trump tries to articular war justification: says if we have a little high oil prices, could be for a little while, but they will drop, and could even be below the levels before, but that he 'had to' act or else Iran would have 'used nukes'. Claims Israel didn't force America's hand. Admits leadership vacuum.
US to offer military protection to ships/insurance in the Strait of Hormuz
The Pentagon has released Operation Epic Fury's objectives; 1- Demilitarization of Iran: destruction of its missile forces, production facilities, and naval fleet 2- Elimination of the terrorist regime 3- Protection of the United States from current and future threats 4- Ensuring that Iran does not possess nuclear weapons
UAE mulling joining US-Israel attack on Iran, and the Saudis too, to stop Iranian missile and drone strikes on their countries.
The American Embassy in Riyadh has been hit in another drone attack, with WSJ reporting it was struck twice Tuesday, resulting in damage to the roof. More embassies across region are shuttering, including the US Embassy in Beirut.
President Trump mulling arming anti-Tehran militias. But he hasn't decided yet while urging Iranians to rise up and be Washington's 'boots on the ground.'
The Israelis just struck the meeting of the Iranian Supreme Council where officials were gathering to choose a new Supreme Leader, a senior Israeli official told Fox News. "Israel struck while they were counting the votes for the appointment of the supreme leader."
US-Israel bombing is expanding inside Iran. Explosions heard in the northwestern cities of Tabriz and Urmia, as the capital no longer the only focus.
Iraq's crude oil output is being significantly curtailed. An update from Iraq specifies a shutdown of 460,000 bpd at West Qurna 2 and a cut of 700,000 bpd at Rumaila, while warning that more than 3 million bpd could be forced offline in the coming days if tanker access remains limited.
Export crude bottlenecks are developing across Iraq. Storage at southern export terminals is nearing critical capacity because tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been paralyzed. Iraq has also halted most Kurdistan-to-Turkey exports via Ceyhan, leaving only about 50,000 bpd for domestic use.
Iranian retaliation expanded on Tuesday, with Gulf states' energy infrastructure hit by multiple drones. This included a drone strike on Fujairah in the UAE, a key bunkering and crude-loading hub outside the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a drone strike at the Port of Salalah in Oman.
The U.S.-Israeli operation against Iran is intensifying. Strikes are said to be hitting major targets, including state media, military command sites, and leadership compounds, with the reported Iranian death toll rising to 787 since the start of Operation Epic Fury.
The war is spreading into a broader regional conflict. Israel has expanded attacks into Lebanon, including renewed strikes on Beirut and a ground move into the south, while regional actors such as Qatar and possibly Saudi Arabia are portrayed as being drawn more directly into the conflict.
France sending aircraft carrier to Mediterranean, says Macron
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Update(1940ET): This is moving very fast, and even though the White House claimed there will be no ground war (yet), Trump is looking for a few good proxies to use to bring down the Islamic Republic.
"The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran, multiple people familiar with the plan told CNN," fresh late Tuesday reports say. "The Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, the sources said."
Hours ago we published: Trump Floats Backing Anti-Tehran Insurgency As Alternative To US Boots On Ground. What groups would be willing to work with the US against Tehran? It already appears clear that the White House lacks understanding of the internal dynamics of Iran, and has woefully underestimated how things would go after killing the Ayatollah.
Apart from the Kurds, there's also historic Sunni minority populations along the southwest border regions of Iran. This would potentially mean the US once again backing Sunni Al Qaeda insurgents, as it did in Syria. Another top contender, probably already involved in the war via the Mossad and CIA, is the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (MEK) - based largely outside of Iran.
On the Kurds, CNN notes:
Iranian Kurdish armed groups have thousands of forces operating along the Iraq-Iran border, primarily in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Several of the groups have released public statements since the beginning of the war hinting at imminent action and urging Iranian military forces to defect. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been striking Kurdish groups and said on Tuesday that it targeted Kurdish forces with dozens of drones.
This invites possible Turkish cross-border intervention in the north, given Turkey has long warned against any and all Kurdish armed insurgencies.
Update(12:45ET): To quote Rumsfeld there are many "unknowns" as the Iraq Iran war continues to go regional, but a Tuesday Oval Office press conference saw Trump try and articulate war justifications. A quick summary:
President Trump spoke at the White House alongside visiting German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, declaring the military campaign against Iran a decisive success. “We’re doing very well,” Trump said.
“They have no navy; it’s been knocked out. They have no air force; it’s been knocked out. They have no air detection — that’s been knocked out,” he stated, adding that Iran’s radar systems and “just about everything’s been knocked out.”
Pressed in the Oval Office on why there was no evacuation plan for Americans in the Middle East before Saturday’s strikes, Trump said, “Well, because it happened all very quickly.”
“I thought we were going to have a situation where we were going to be attacked. They were getting ready to attack Israel,” he said.
When asked whether Israel had “forced” his hand, Trump replied, “No, actually, I might have forced their hand.”
Addressing speculation about Iran’s future leadership, Trump referenced Reza Pahlavi. “He seems like a very nice person. But it seems to me that someone from within might be better” to take over, he said.
Trump acknowledged the risks of regime change. “I guess the worst case would be, we do this, and then somebody takes over who’s as bad as the previous person, right?” he said. “That could happen. We don’t want that to happen.”
Defending the timing of the strike, Trump said, “You see, we were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first. They were going to attack. If we didn’t do it, they were going to attack first. I felt strongly about that.”
And finally: very GW Bush style...
If we hadn't attacked Iran, it would have already started a nuclear war with many countries, because "they are pure evil and sick in the head" - Trump.
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