Why has Israel resumed large-scale airstrikes on Gaza?
Officials claim attacks will bring release of more hostages, but some suggest political factors at play for Netanyahu
Israel has resumed large-scale attacks in Gaza with a wave of airstrikes and artillery fire against targets throughout the devastated territory. More than 300 have been killed and hundreds more injured, according to Palestinian authorities.
The casualties include some high-ranking Hamas officials and many civilians, including women and children. Hospitals and civil defence teams say they have been overwhelmed.
Israel has also issued evacuation orders for parts of northern and central Gaza close to the perimeter, suggesting that some kind of attack involving troops on the ground is imminent. Hundreds, possibly thousands, of Palestinians in the territory who have only recently returned to their homes, often in ruins, are on the move again.
Why is it happening now?
The Israeli government has been threatening to launch an offensive for weeks.
Israeli officials say targeting the Hamas leadership, which has re-emerged in recent weeks to again take control of Gaza, will bring about the release of more hostages. Many hostage families in Israel dispute this.
More practically, Israel now has capabilities it lacked six weeks ago. Ammunition stocks have been replenished – partly due to US deliveries – and new potential targets among Hamas’ leaders identified. Planes and other equipment have been repaired. Troops have been rested.
What does this mean for the ceasefire?
The new offensive comes 16 days after the first of three phases of a ceasefire agreed in January ended. The three phases were supposed to lead to a definitive end to the war, a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of all remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas since its 7 October 2023 surprise attack into Israel, which triggered the conflict. That attack killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians. The ensuing Israeli offensive has killed more than 48,700 people, again mostly civilians.
Indirect talks to prevent a return to violence have stalled.
Hamas says Israel has broken the deal by reneging on its earlier commitment to move to the scheduled second phase, which was meant to establish a permanent ceasefire and the return of all hostages. Instead Israel has proposed extending the first phase by 30 to 60 days, to allow for the release of more hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has rejected this.
The Israeli government argues that Hamas has broken the ceasefire by refusing new hostage releases.
What other reasons are being cited for the new strikes?
Critics of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, suggest other reasons for the new offensive – or its timing, at least.
One is that Netanyahu never had any intention of moving to the second phase of the ceasefire, which would have meant Israeli forces withdrawing from Gaza, in effect leaving Hamas as its de facto ruler. The militant Islamist organisation has reasserted its control in recent weeks, humanitarian officials there say, with civilian officials returning to previous posts and the battered military wing finding thousands of new recruits.
A second reason cited is that Israel had the full backing of the Trump administration for renewed attacks against Hamas.
Then there are the domestic political factors, cited extensively by the Israeli prime minister’s critics. Netanyahu needs support from rightwing allies to win crucial votes in Israel’s parliament in coming days and weeks, and to maintain his grip on power. These allies have fiercely opposed a permanent end to hostilities in Gaza, with one resigning from his ministerial post in protest at the January ceasefire. This vital support is now assured – at least in the short term.
Netanyahu is also on trial for corruption. If found guilty, he could face prison. On Tuesday, a court approved Netanyahu’s request not to appear at a hearing on Tuesday “due to the renewal of the war”, Israeli media reported.
On Sunday, Netanyahu announced he would seek to dismiss the head of the Israeli’s internal security service. This has been seen as a further attempt to override democratic checks in Israel and big protests are expected later this week. These can now be portrayed as unpatriotic by Netanyahu’s supporters. Successive recent polls have shown Israelis overwhelmingly in favour of a ceasefire in Gaza to bring back the 59 hostages still there, though support for a war until “total victory” over Hamas remains strong.
What might happen next?
The grim reality is that the fragile two-month pause in hostilities between Israel and Hamas is now over. It appears very unlikely that a deal that would end the new Israeli attacks can be achieved soon.
Israeli officials have made clear that the strikes are merely the beginning of a potentially much broader offensive that will continue until Hamas releases the 59 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, of whom more than half are presumed dead. This would inevitably mean considerable civilian casualties there, further mass displacement and even more destruction.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza was only partly eased by a massive influx of aid during the ceasefire, which came into effect in mid-January. Two weeks ago, Israel imposed a total blockade on the territory, claiming Hamas was exploiting aid for its own benefit and had violated the agreement. This was denied by Hamas. Aid agencies and shops in Gaza currently have stocks of essentials to last around three weeks, humanitarian officials say, but the new violence will make distribution much harder.
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