Air Travel Collapses Between U.S. & Canada; Unprecedented 75% Decline In Flight Bookings Reported

Friday, March 28, 2025


Air Travel Collapses Between U.S. & Canada; Unprecedented 75% Decline In Flight Bookings Reported

By Sumit Ahlawat



US President Donald Trump’s constant threats to make Canada the 51st state of the United States of America have an unintended consequence. According to the latest data, advance flight bookings between Canada and the United States have fallen by as much as 75% in the next few months.

The Aviation analytics company OAG recently published data on forward flight bookings from Canada to the US. While many analysts anticipated a fall in bookings, the sheer volume of decline has shocked everyone.

According to the data, the number of tickets booked for the next six months is down anywhere from 71 to 75% compared to the same period last year.
US-Canada Air Travel Collapses

OAG data shows an alarming decrease in the number of advance flight ticket bookings from Canada to the US.

For instance, as many as 1.2 million flight tickets were booked in March 2024 for the month of April 2024 for air travel between Canada and the US.

Compared to this, in March 2025, only 295,982 flight tickets were booked for the month of April 2025, recording a 75.7 % downfall.

This same trend will continue until at least September.

For the month of May, while 817,912 flight tickets were booked in March 2024, only 226,980 flight tickets were booked in March 2025, recording a 72.2 % decline.

Similarly, June recorded a decline of 71.6 % in forward flight ticket bookings year over year. July recorded a decline of 71.4%, August recorded a decline of 71.9 %, and September recorded a decline of 71.8 %.


These numbers show the Canada-US air travel market is experiencing a sustained downturn. The numbers are also significant for the sheer volume of decline, averaging above 70 % consistently for six months.
How are Airlines Responding

The Canada-US air travel market is big because of its size. For perspective, over 1.2 million air tickets were booked from Canada to the US for the month of April 2024. A 70 % decline in this market is massive, and airlines are bound to shift their strategies according to the changing market dynamics.

However, so far, the airlines have been slow to respond to these shifting market dynamics.





According to OAG data, airlines have slashed their schedules between the two countries from April through September by anywhere from 1.6% to 3.5%.

However, if current trends persist, airlines will have to make much more significant changes to their schedules.

Air Canada would be most impacted by these changes, given that the airline has the largest transborder network between the two countries.

These numbers by OAG essentially confirm what Leger’s research indicated in February. The research found that nearly half of Canadians were less likely to travel to the US in 2025.

“With ongoing political tensions and shifting Canada-U.S. relations, nearly half of Canadian travelers (48%) say they are less likely to visit the U.S. in 2025 compared to last year. In contrast, only one in ten (10%) say they are more likely to travel south, while 43% report no change in their U.S. travel intentions,” the Leger’s report said.

The research also found that the majority of Canadians skipping US travel due to ongoing tensions are likely to travel within Canada instead.


“For those avoiding U.S. trips, domestic Canadian travel is the top alternative. Six-in-ten (61%) of those less likely to visit the U.S. plan to explore Canada instead – 30% will travel within their home province, while 31% will visit another province within Canada. Meanwhile, one-third (33%) are planning to travel outside North America, and 6% plan to skip travel altogether,” the report said.
Other Factors Affecting Air Travel

While Trump’s threats and the broader trade dispute between Canada and the US have certainly contributed to the depressed air travel demand between the two countries, other factors are also at play.

A spate of air accidents this year and last year has also contributed to the suppressed demand for air travel. Two major mishaps in the US and Canada might also have impacted the air travel market between these two countries.

Earlier this month, CNN quoted Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta Air Lines, as saying that the travel slump the airlines are experiencing this year is potentially caused at least in part by two recent accidents—one involving a Delta Air Lines aircraft and the other involving an American Airlines aircraft.

Speaking at the JPMorgan Chase investors conference, Ed Bastian said, “It caused a lot of shock among consumers.”

While Bastion did not specify the extent of the slowdown in ticket sales, his company cut its projected sales growth for the quarter in half, indicating that trouble is brewing.

Delta stated that a decline in consumer confidence and economic uncertainty is also negatively impacting air travel.

“We saw a pretty immediate stall in both corporate travel and bookings,” he noted. “Consumer confidence and certainty in air travel started to wane a little bit as questions of safety came in.”

Robert Isom, the CEO of American Airlines, also echoed sentiments similar to Bastion’s. Isom stated that the crash significantly affected the company’s lower-than-expected revenue projections for the quarter.

Air Crashes Have Rocked The World

The two crashes that sent shockwaves throughout the world and led to a decline in aviation travel occurred in North America.

The first accident was a mid-air collision involving American Airlines. In a catastrophic accident in January 2025, a commercial passenger plane of American Airlines collided with a US Army Black Hawk helicopter over the Potomac River just outside of Washington, DC. The airplane was carrying 64 passengers at the time of the accident, all of whom perished.

This was the deadliest air accident in US aviation history since 2001 and one that shook the country and raised several questions about air safety protocols.

Less than a month later, in February 2025, another incident occurred when a Delta Airlines plane crashed and overturned as it approached the Toronto Pearson Airport in Canada. The incident was attributed to strong winds in Toronto. Fortunately, there were no fatalities in the accident, but about 18 people were reported to be injured.

The incident caused a massive uproar, with visuals of the accident spreading quickly on the internet and many questioning the pilots’ skills. In fact, a Houston resident who survived the accident reportedly filed a lawsuit against Delta Air Lines, a move that could hurt the airline’s business even further.

However, these weren’t the only aviation accidents reported this year. Data from the National Transportation Safety Board shows that there have been 94 aviation accidents in 2025, which may be a cause for concern. According to the stats, there were about 63 aviation accidents in January alone and about 31 in February.

The safety board data further stated that there were 13 fatal aviation accidents this year, ten in January and three in February.

In January 2025, Air Busan Flight 391, an Airbus A321-200 traveling from Busan to Hong Kong, caught fire at Gimhae International Airport shortly before departure. All passengers survived, and about seven were injured.

In February 2025, a small aircraft carrying ten passengers lost height and speed and disappeared from radar before crashing in Alaska on February 6. The Alaska Department of Public Safety confirmed that there were no survivors.

That same month, at Chicago Midway Airport, a Southwest flight had to abort landing at the last moment to avoid colliding with a private jet on the runway.

That said, 2025 is not the only year witnessing aviation accidents. On December 29, 2024, in a very tragic accident, a Jeju Air (7C) Boeing 737-800 crashed into a concrete barrier at Muan Airport (MWX), South Korea, killing 179 people onboard. The accident was reportedly caused by a bird strike that led to an engine malfunction.

In December 2024, an Azerbaijan Airlines flight en route to Russia crash-landed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people. It was later alleged that a Russian air defense system shot down the aircraft. The aircraft was traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia.

While all these incidents have expectedly caused a stir and made potential travelers anxious, US President Donald Trump’s scathing remarks about Air Traffic Control (ATC) might also have contributed to declining public confidence in air travel.

A day after the American Airlines collision, Trump blamed efforts to increase the diversity of air traffic control staff.

Additionally, the head of the Department of Government Efficiency and tech billionaire Elon Musk stated that the current technology for air traffic control is about to “catastrophically fail, putting air traveler safety at serious risk.” He also implied that his company, SpaceX, possessed the necessary technology to plug the gaps in ATC’s capabilities.

Bastian claims all these arguments have contributed to travelers’ anxiety about flying. “Unfortunately, as we all know, some aspects of the crash were politicized, which did not help matters in terms of restoring confidence in consumers’ minds,” he said.

It remains to be seen how American and Canadian airlines will respond to these factors, address safety concerns, and maintain healthy balance sheets.

Sumit Ahlawat has over a decade of experience in news media. He has worked with Press Trust of India, Times Now, Zee News, Economic Times, and Microsoft News. He holds a Master’s Degree in International Media and Modern History from The University of Sheffield, UK.