Trump's Mideast Envoy Forced Netanyahu to Accept a Gaza Plan He Repeatedly Rejected

 

Trump's Mideast Envoy Forced Netanyahu to Accept a Gaza Plan He Repeatedly Rejected

Israeli sources say that the involvement of the incoming U.S. administration, led by Trump's aggressive Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, revived hostage talks with Hamas. While Netanyahu's propaganda machine claims that Trump has left him no choice, what happens inside his coalition will determine whether the prime minister approves the deal.

Last Friday evening, Steven Witkoff, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East envoy, called from Qatar to tell Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aides that he would be coming to Israel the following afternoon. The aides politely explained that was in the middle of the Sabbath but that the prime minister would gladly meet him Saturday night.

Witkoff's blunt reaction took them by surprise. He explained to them in salty English that Shabbat was of no interest to him. His message was loud and clear. Thus in an unusual departure from official practice, the prime minister showed up at his office for an official meeting with Witkoff, who then returned to Qatar to seal the deal. — Haaretz

Our Take: “Witkoff is a Jewish real estate investor and developer who is close to Trump. He doesn't have the background of the kind of people who usually fill diplomatic roles. "Witkoff isn't a diplomat. He doesn't talk like a diplomat, he has no interest in diplomatic manners and diplomatic protocols," says a senior Israeli diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity. "He's a businessman who wants to reach a deal quickly and charges ahead unusually aggressively."

Love that. The last thing we need is another over-educated ne'er-do-well speaking on our behalf in important meetings. There appears to be a bit of game theory happening, as well.

Earlier this year, I posited that if Trump somehow twists Netanyahu's arm, and forces him to accept a ceasefire deal, then Bibi's government will likely collapse after the two most hardcore radicals in his cabinet — Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir — resign in protest. Smotrich and Ben-Gvir cannot afford to "seek peace" in this conflict. Their respective parties make up the base of the Israeli Settler movement, which desires expanding the borders of Israel well beyond Palestine. This opportunity is their best — and perhaps last — chance, as the world is likely to impose its collective will against Israel and seek retribution for what the Zionist state has done against its Arab neighbors.

Netanyahu clearly sees the writing on the wall, as he has already dispatched his operatives to attack Trump in the press. From the article:

“His propaganda machine is pushing the no-choice narrative that it's Trump. On Monday, laments began to be heard on Channel 14 that Trump isn't what we thought. ‘I'm surprised all the senior officials in the U.S. administration are saying the same thing,’ Yotam Zimri said on the Patriots program. ‘If this doesn't happen by the time Trump comes in, Hamas will understand what hell is. I don't understand the Israeli interest in at least not waiting for Trump.’ Yinon Magal answered, ‘It's because Trump is pressing to do it! That's what's happening.’"

Zimri: "So all his people have been lying – it's a big disappointment."

Magal: "He talks about hell and in the meantime sends his envoy to sign a deal. It's a deal whose impact will be very difficult. That's the truth." He added that the last remaining hope is that Hamas will reject a deal: "A cabinet minister told me we need to pray again that God will harden Pharaoh's heart."

It appears they are already calling Trump administration personnel "liars."

“Monday afternoon, he briefed Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. Ben-Gvir will vote against any deal, no question. Winning populist votes in the next election in his calculations trumps saving lives. When Smotrich left the meeting with the prime minister, he sounded thoughtful. Those who spoke to him Monday got the impression that he thought it was a good deal.

“But by noon he announced that it was a catastrophe that Israel should not agree to. Smotrich's statement, however, didn't address the critical issue, namely whether he regards it as a reason to quit the coalition. If he does leave, he will drag Ben-Gvir with him, and the government will fall. If he simply opposes the deal, his opposition will be meaningless – just airtime on radio shows.

“This question is linked with another one, whether Netanyahu can pass the 2025 budget and better ensure the survival of the coalition, in light of the crisis over the Haredi draft law and the internecine struggle in the ultra-Orthodox camp over who can be the most extreme. Netanyahu may decide that his government is crumbling anyway, so better to bring it down on a deal that is popular with the non-Ben-Gvir-ist public than on the whims of the Rebbe of Gur.”

The author makes a good point in that last paragraph. Netanyahu can't get a budget passed, and the Supreme Court ruling last year stipulating that Orthodox and Hasidic (Haredi) Jews would no longer be exempt from the mandated conscription. The Haredi are a large part of Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's support base. So Netanyahu may end up using this ceasefire deal as a plausible excuse for why the government "collapsed," and forced new elections. Bibi can blame the shutdown on the radicals, whom the public apparently don't much care for in the first place.

The only problem with that strategy is that Bibi no longer has any other allies left. Once he loses the radicals, he will be a deep state orphan. Right now, Bibi is frantically trying to figure out how to "sign" this deal, but still keep warmongering for the radicals. If he signs the deal, he loses support of the radicals and is forced to at least temporarily suspend all military action, right as Trump is entering office.

If he doesn't sign, the war continues and we get to see what Trump meant when he warned that "everybody involved" would have hell to pay if the hostages weren't released by January 20th. I took that to mean the Israeli side, too.
— GhostofBasedPatrickHenry