PH can succeed at polls despite Umno’s problems, says analyst

PH can succeed at polls despite Umno’s problems, says analyst

-January 17, 2023 8:15 AM

PH-BN togetherness may not be reflected at the grassroots level because of dissension within Umno, says an analyst. (Bernama pic)


PETALING JAYA: Pakatan Harapan (PH) will perform well in the state elections due soon in spite of its partnership in government with an Umno hobbled by splits, an analyst said.

Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia reasoned that PH has strongholds in mainly urban areas, while Umno and Perikatan Nasional (PN) dominate in rural and semi-rural areas.

Umno candidates might even need the help of the PH election machinery after rifts were exposed in the party at its general assembly last week.

One camp in Umno supports the status quo and another wants to unseat president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his deputy Mohamad Hasan.

Azmil said there was a possibility of a boycott by division leaders and rank-and-file members after the general assembly decided the posts of president and deputy president would not be contested.

PH may lose more Malay votes

However, Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara had a contrasting view, that PH could lose more Malay votes because of its alliance with Barisan Nasional (BN) in forming a unity government.

Divisions in Umno – the lynchpin of BN – could lead to the party being sabotaged by its own members, which could lead to more Malay votes being cast for PN, as had happened in the November general election where Umno won only 26 seats.

“So if PH joins forces with Umno-BN in the state elections, PH will lose more Malay votes since it does not possess the pull factor,” he said.

PKR’s decision to brand itself as a multiracial party had also failed to attract Malay voters, he said. The Malay electorate had also not gravitated to Amanah either as it is seen as a PAS splinter labelled treacherous by the Islamic party.

Azmi also said if Umno’s party elections are held before the state elections, it may find it difficult to move forward with any collaboration.

The party polls could also jeopardise the collaboration with PH, hindering its chances in the state elections.

“If the camp against Zahid and Mohamad win a majority of the posts in the party leadership, the current leaders will have a hard time (justifying the PH-BN cooperation),” he said.