6 state polls, not Padang Serai, to be test of Harapan-BN govt
The Padang Serai parliamentary election on Wednesday (Dec 7) saw Pakatan Harapan losing the seat that it held for three consecutive terms to Perikatan Nasional (PN).
PN’s candidate Azman Nasrudin claimed victory with a 16,260 vote majority, almost double the majority recorded by Harapan’s candidate during the 14th general election in 2018.
The landslide victory led PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin to brand Padang Serai as proof that Malaysians rejected the new federal government led by Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim.
However, analysts who spoke to Malaysiakini rejected such a notion, saying the Padang Serai election was too early to be used as a yardstick of the cooperation between Harapan and BN.
“I would say that it is still far too early to determine if the public rejects the Harapan-BN cooperation,” said Halmie Azrie Abdul Halim, a researcher for democracy and governance at the Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (Ideas).
“The respective parties have yet to mobilise on the ground nor engaged their grassroots with a compelling narrative.
Pakatan Harapan candidate for Padang Serai Sofee Razak (middle).
“This will probably take place once the full cabinet including deputy ministers is announced, as well as the first special Parliament sitting scheduled to take place on Dec 19, which will see the selection of a new Dewan Rakyat speaker, the vote of confidence for the 10th prime minister, and re-tabling of Budget 2023,” he added.
According to Halmie, the real acid test to measure whether Harapan’s cooperation with BN is well-received by the people would be at the upcoming six state elections.
There are six states which have not conducted their respective elections and are expected to do so next year - Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu, as well as Negeri Sembilan, Penang, and Selangor.
The first three are PN-led states, while the rest are under Harapan.
Govt should address corruption
“I believe that during those state elections, it would be a much more fair assessment for us to judge the Harapan-BN formula.
“It’s far too simplistic to attribute the two election results as indicators of the failure of this nearly three-week-old government,” Halmie said, referring to Padang Serai and the Tioman state seat election in Pahang.
The Tioman election, which was also held on Dec 7, saw BN’s candidate win the coalition’s traditional stronghold with a slim majority, almost losing to PN.
Halmie believed the new government would have a fighting chance against PN if they can overcome issues faced by the people and address corruption before the state elections are held.
A similar view was shared by Sivamurugan Pandian, a political sociology professor at Universiti Sains Malaysia.
According to the analyst, the federal government pact should be given more time to develop their collaboration.
“This will probably take place once the full cabinet including deputy ministers is announced, as well as the first special Parliament sitting scheduled to take place on Dec 19, which will see the selection of a new Dewan Rakyat speaker, the vote of confidence for the 10th prime minister, and re-tabling of Budget 2023,” he added.
According to Halmie, the real acid test to measure whether Harapan’s cooperation with BN is well-received by the people would be at the upcoming six state elections.
There are six states which have not conducted their respective elections and are expected to do so next year - Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu, as well as Negeri Sembilan, Penang, and Selangor.
The first three are PN-led states, while the rest are under Harapan.
Govt should address corruption
“I believe that during those state elections, it would be a much more fair assessment for us to judge the Harapan-BN formula.
“It’s far too simplistic to attribute the two election results as indicators of the failure of this nearly three-week-old government,” Halmie said, referring to Padang Serai and the Tioman state seat election in Pahang.
The Tioman election, which was also held on Dec 7, saw BN’s candidate win the coalition’s traditional stronghold with a slim majority, almost losing to PN.
Halmie believed the new government would have a fighting chance against PN if they can overcome issues faced by the people and address corruption before the state elections are held.
A similar view was shared by Sivamurugan Pandian, a political sociology professor at Universiti Sains Malaysia.
According to the analyst, the federal government pact should be given more time to develop their collaboration.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political sociology professor Sivamurugan Pandian
“I think it’s too early to make the outcome (of the two Wednesday polls) as a yardstick or benchmark as both constituencies have a set of different demography and geography.
“The pact should be given more time to see to what extent they can collaborate further.
“However, they can iron out their relationship to make a formal pact if they are willing to work out on common understanding and the upcoming six state elections can become an acid test of their political pact,” Sivamurugan said.
BN support waning
Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya found that the Padang Serai election results showed BN’s support waning while Harapan managed to maintain its amount of support from the previous general election.
In 2018, Harapan’s candidate M Karupaiya won the seat after receiving 31,724 votes.
In Wednesday’s election, Harapan’s Sofee Razak received 35,377 votes to come in second to PN’s Azman (51,637).
“I think it’s too early to make the outcome (of the two Wednesday polls) as a yardstick or benchmark as both constituencies have a set of different demography and geography.
“The pact should be given more time to see to what extent they can collaborate further.
“However, they can iron out their relationship to make a formal pact if they are willing to work out on common understanding and the upcoming six state elections can become an acid test of their political pact,” Sivamurugan said.
BN support waning
Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya found that the Padang Serai election results showed BN’s support waning while Harapan managed to maintain its amount of support from the previous general election.
In 2018, Harapan’s candidate M Karupaiya won the seat after receiving 31,724 votes.
In Wednesday’s election, Harapan’s Sofee Razak received 35,377 votes to come in second to PN’s Azman (51,637).
Perikatan Nasional candidate for Padang Serai Azman Nasrudin (right).
It should be noted that the number of voters in Padang Serai had spiked from 84,834 in 2018 to 133,867 chiefly due to the passing of the Undi18 and automatic voter registration laws.
“Harapan still depends on those who supported them before while BN’s support waned due to the ethnic and racial sentiments played (against the party).
“This was on top of all the accusations painted against BN while it tried to shift its approach towards moderate politics,” Awang Azman said.
Meanwhile, analyst Oh Ei Sun believed that the Padang Serai and Tioman election results showed Malay voters had “solidified towards the more avowedly conservative PN”.
He attributed it to two factors - the Malays grew uncomfortable with Umno, which leads BN, over scandals that implicated the party, as well as the Malay’s attitude towards Harapan.
“They perceive Harapan as too liberal and not safeguarding enough of Malay special position and privileges, and they decided to vote for PN and especially PAS, which they perceived as possessing the religious and therefore moral high ground.
“Second is the local manifestation of the worldwide, seemingly irreversible, rise of political Islam, which aims to inculcate religious values into politics in Muslim-majority countries.
“Notice also the recent passage of illiberal laws in Indonesia banning private behaviours that are viewed as undesirable to orthodox Muslims,” said Oh, who is a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
It should be noted that the number of voters in Padang Serai had spiked from 84,834 in 2018 to 133,867 chiefly due to the passing of the Undi18 and automatic voter registration laws.
“Harapan still depends on those who supported them before while BN’s support waned due to the ethnic and racial sentiments played (against the party).
“This was on top of all the accusations painted against BN while it tried to shift its approach towards moderate politics,” Awang Azman said.
Meanwhile, analyst Oh Ei Sun believed that the Padang Serai and Tioman election results showed Malay voters had “solidified towards the more avowedly conservative PN”.
He attributed it to two factors - the Malays grew uncomfortable with Umno, which leads BN, over scandals that implicated the party, as well as the Malay’s attitude towards Harapan.
“They perceive Harapan as too liberal and not safeguarding enough of Malay special position and privileges, and they decided to vote for PN and especially PAS, which they perceived as possessing the religious and therefore moral high ground.
“Second is the local manifestation of the worldwide, seemingly irreversible, rise of political Islam, which aims to inculcate religious values into politics in Muslim-majority countries.
“Notice also the recent passage of illiberal laws in Indonesia banning private behaviours that are viewed as undesirable to orthodox Muslims,” said Oh, who is a senior fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.
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