Republic of China Air Force to Procure Ten U.S. C-130J Transports: Are They Survivable in the Taiwan Strait?
Asia-Pacific , Aircraft and Anti-Aircraft
The Republic of China Air Force has confirmed plans to procure ten C-130J transport aircraft from the United States, while canceling a prior planned to upgrade program its C-130H transports procured in the mid-1990s. The first C-130H aircraft had entered service in 1984, with procurements continuing into late-1990s. Before its cancellation, the “Taiwushan-3” upgrade program was intended to integrate new cockpit interfaces, enhance maritime search and rescue capabilities, add simulators, improve global positioning and reporting systems, and install safety and collision-avoidance equipment on the C-130H. Military officials have stated that this reflects a cost-based reassessment of how best to sustain and modernise the Air Force’s airlift capabilities, as software upgrade expenses were high, while life extension would require structural reinforcement of the airframes.
The C-130 is currently the heaviest military transport in production the United States, with the much larger C-17 and C-5 both being out of production. It is dwarfed in size by the Russian Il-76, and moreso by the Chinese Y-20 which is the largest military transport in production worldwide. The C-130 is a pre-Vietnam War era aircraft that saw the bulk of design work done during the Korean War, while being brought into service from 1956, allowing it to take part in over a dozen conflicts. When operated by the CIA during the 1950 and 1960s the aircraft flew multiple supply runs to support former Republic of China Armed Forces personnel based in Myanmar, which were conducting series of protracted raids into Chinese territory with the support of CIA advisors and intelligence.
The C-130J is a comprehensive update of the C-130 design that first entered service in 1999, and integrated new engines, a new flight deck, and new avionics. The aircraft has served with 27 countries, although South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines are the only East Asian operators. The Republic of China Air Force currently operates 19 C-130H aircraft, and intends to use a “high-low mix” operational model, under which the C-130J fleet will be assigned more demanding missions such as night operations, while a number of C-130H aircraft receive more limited domestic upgrades for routine missions. The C-130J’s improved range and payload, and its ability to operate for shorter runways, are expected to be among its most prized attributes.
Taipei-based defence analyst Su Tzu-yun said the C-130J’s digital cockpit and improved engines allow faster and safer logistics operations, noting that pairing the aircraft with upgraded C-130H aircraft reflects a more systematic approach to equipment management balancing operational capability with sustainment demands. Significant questions have nevertheless been raised regarding the wartime utility of a fleet of medium transport aircraft, since the Republic of China Armed Forces’ bases are all within very close proximity of the Chinese mainland, while the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), with which they remain in a state of civil war, leads the world in its long range anti-aircraft capabilities. The 40N6 missile deployed by S-400 air defence systems, for example, has proven capable of destroying high value aircraft at extreme ranges of up to 400 kilometres even at low altitudes, as demonstrated both against Ukraine and in Indian hands against Pakistan. The PL-17 air-to-air missile, meanwhile, provides an even longer engagement range and can equip over 400 of the PLA’s J-16 fighters.
Following multiple indications from U.S. President Donald Trump and other officials that Taipei is expected to significantly increase spending on American defence products to continue to enjoy Washington’s political and military support, a surge in orders of equipment from the late 2010s have made the Republic of China Ministry of Defence one of the largest clients for U.S.armaments. Major delays to U.S. arms supplies have nevertheless caused a major scandal in Taipei, with backlogs having exceeded $21 billion by late 2025. The largest single order placed, namely one for 66 F-16 Block 70 fighters, has seen just a single fighter delivered, despite the United States being obliged to deliver all aircraft by 2027, fuelling calls in Taipei to take legal action. The Defence Ministry has been highly constrained in its options for defence procurements, with the Republic of China’s lack of international recognition or diplomatic relations with all but twelve minor countries leaving most arms suppliers unwilling to supply equipment.
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Taiwan may end up receiving 2nd hand F-16s as part of the so-called $21 billion contract, which Taiwan will lack the guts to take legal action for fear of being marginalised by the wankees.
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