Thai election now just 3 days out

Murray Hunter


Thai election now just 3 days out


Feb 05, 2026





When the Thai election was called mid-December, the writer predicted that the Thai-Cambodia conflict would favour the conservative side of politics, especially prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s Bhumjaithai Party. However, with 32.0 percent of undecided voters at the time, anything could happen.

The latest National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) Poll taken January 23-27 with 2,500 respondents representing all regions of Thailand, national political party support was 34.20 percent for the People’s Party, 22.60 percent for the Bhumjaithai Party, 16.20 percent for the Pheu Thai Party, and 13.20 percent for the Democrat Party. A number of small parties like the Economic Party, Ruam Thai Sang Chart Party, and Kla Tham Party received far less support but this support may be in concentrated areas. An important finding was that only 2.60 percent of voters remain undecided.

Given that the various parties have differing support across the various regions, individual candidate support will be a major factor, especially in tight races. The results on Sunday night are uncertain.

Its highly likely that the People’s Party will win the most number of seats, just like Move Forward did in 2023. However, almost certain not to be enough for them to govern in their own right in the 500-member assembly. Pheu Thai looks to be struggling with the Shinawatra factor gone. Yodchanan Wongsawat just doesn’t have the same pull. The Bhumjaithai Party doesn’t look to be benefitting from the Thatcher factor as much as it expected, leaving it short.

Any new government will most likely be a negotiated-coalition and it will depend upon how pragmatic the People’s Party is for it to play any part of the government. Anutin with Pheu Thai support could be returned as prime minister, unless the Democrat Party plays a spoiler role. However, based upon past performance the Democrats would firmly align with the conservative side of politics. As has been seen, after 2023, anything could happen post-election, such as Pheu Thai abandoning its ties to the conservative block.

There could be some electoral surprise coming NIDA didn’t pick up. For example, how betrayed do Pheu Thai voters feel? How did voters feel with Anutin as prime minister? He played a lay back non-controversial role during the election, unlike previous leaders like Prayut Chan o-cha. Some commentators see this election as a great test for Thai nationalism. How far have the Democrats been rehabilitated by the electorate is another question The Novermber floods in the south may play a major role.

The low profile of the referendum during the election doesn’t point to any spirit of desire for radical change by voters. There seems to be some acceptance of the accommodation between the conservative elite and pragmatists. Just how the People’s Party will disturb this remains to be seen on Sunday. There was a lot of pushbacks from People’s Party voters when a grand coalition with Bhumjaithai was suggested.

There are two aspects to Sunday’s election, national support verses local voter sentiments. The party lists are always important, but ‘twisted’ single electorate results can distort national tallies.

Over that last days Bhumjaithai is stressing that it is the only party which can deal with Cambodia, Move Forwards Pita Limjaroenrat is out on the hustings for the People’s Party talking about a true peoples’ government and Democrat leader and former prime minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is pushing his party as a safe option.

Sunday night could return Thailand back to the future with a conservative-pragmatist alliance or throw the dice for something progressive. The first option is most likely blending in with a cabinet of technocrats to run the next government.