Growing Malay population
means PAS could lead
Penang, says analyst
Oh Ei Sun says PN can forget about Chinese votes and win the state two election cycles from now due to demographic changes.
Oh Ei Sun of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs said Gerakan may seem the logical choice to lead Penang PN at the moment as the state is still dominated by Chinese-majority seats.
However, Oh foresees that PAS will have greater sway two election cycles from now, giving the Islamic party the better right to helm the state’s PN chapter.
“If you were to let PAS lead PN (in Penang) here on, you can kiss goodbye to the Chinese votes, and I mean all of them.
“But I can foresee that because of the growth of the Malay population (in Penang), it would make sense (for PAS to lead Penang PN). They can forget about the Chinese votes and still win the state,” he told FMT.
According to the statistics department, as of August 2023, the Chinese community make up the majority of Penang’s population at 44.9%, followed closely by the Malay (44.7%), Indian (9.7%) and other communities (0.6%).
However, Ooi Kee Beng of Penang Institute believes that the state’s electorate will remain focused on the quality of policies offered and inclusiveness, regardless of demographic changes.
This, he said, was because of Penang’s multicultural DNA and international standing.
Oh acknowledged that PAS made significant inroads in the DAP-dominated Penang during the 2023 state election, securing seven seats, its highest-ever tally in the state. Bersatu, which won four seats, was merely riding on PAS’s coattails, he added.
“I think PN voters in Penang primarily vote for PAS. They are not voting for Bersatu, and they’re certainly not voting for Gerakan,” he said, adding that this strengthened PAS’s case for the Penang PN chairman’s post.
Oh says it would be unrealistic for the Malaysian Indian People’s Party (MIPP) to expect to lead Penang PN.
FMT previously quoted a source as saying PN planned to focus on Malay and Indian voters to secure a slim majority in the next state election, acknowledging its inability to capture Chinese voters in Penang.
To date, Gerakan has been unable to help PN gain support at the polls, failing to win a single parliamentary or state seat in Penang despite ruling the state for 39 years between 1969 and 2008.
The party, however, expressed confidence in leading PN to victory in the Penang state election, citing its experience in governing and developing Penang in the past.
Gerakan’s glory days are gone
Nonetheless, Oh and Ooi believe that Gerakan’s glory days in Penang are a thing of the past and cannot be regained, unless the party quits PN.
Oh said the Gerakan-led Penang enjoyed a tech boom in the 1970s, creating lots of job opportunities and greatly boosting the state’s economy. “People continued to vote for Gerakan until 2008 when they had enough of Barisan Nasional,” he added.
Now, with its tie-up with PAS, Gerakan has no chance of winning over the non-Malays, he said.
Ooi said the only way for Gerakan to regain its past prominence would be to leave PN and become a local opposition party.
“(Gerakan will need to be) led by leaders who can believably champion Penang voters’ growing worries precipitated by the PH government over the last 16 years, and offer visionary solutions.”
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kt comments:
... UNLESS non-Malays bonk (and procreate, or migrate into Penang) faster 😂😂😂
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