Opinion: Will Israel retaliate against Iran?

Opinion: Will Israel retaliate against Iran?

16 Apr 2024 • 9:30 AM MYT



TheRealNehruism
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The chronology event that marks the increasing likelihood of open conflict between Iran and Israel is as below.


On April 1, suspected Israeli warplanes carried out airstrikes on Iran's consulate in Damascus, the capital of Syria, which resulted in the death of seven military advisers according to Iran's claims.


In retaliation, late yesterday ( 13 April) , Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps announced that they had launched “dozens of drones and missiles” towards military sites on Israeli territory.


Iran however, according to reports, had likely “telegraphed” its attack against Israel, to allow Israel to intercept much of its attack, in order to not escalate their conflict further.


Experts have suggested that Iran’s choice of using slow-moving drone attack was calibrated to represent a show of power but also allow Israel to have some wiggle room.


“It appears that Iran telegraphed its attack on Israel to demonstrate it can strike using different capabilities to complicate the (Israeli army’s) ability to neutralise the assault but also to provide an off ramp to pause escalation,” said Nishank Motwani, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Washington.


The claim by the experts might have a basis, on account that 99% of the drones and missiles was foiled by the Israeli army with the help of the US and other allies.


After its attack on Israel had been foiled, Iran today has come out to release a statement to urge Israel not to retaliate militarily to its unprecedented attack.


Iran is presenting its attack on Israel as a justified response to a strike that destroyed its consulate building in Damascus earlier on April 1.


“The matter can be deemed concluded,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X just a few hours after the start of the operation late yesterday, to indicate that if Israel chooses to not respond to the Iranian offensive, the dispute between them can be put to rest without further escalation.


During the retaliatory strike, Tehran also warned the US, urging the Americans to “stay away” from its conflict.


“Any threat by the terrorist government of America and the Zionist regime from any country will result in a reciprocal and proportionate response,” the Revolutionary Guards warned in a statement early today.


“If necessary”, Tehran “will not hesitate to take defensive measures to protect its interests against any aggressive military action”, Iran’s ministry of foreign affairs said.


“The next slap will be fiercer,” warned a new mural unveiled overnight in Tehran’s Palestine Square, where a few thousand Iranians congregated during the night to chant “Death to Israel” and “Death to America”.


On April 12, American President Biden had announced that he predicts Iran to attack Israel "sooner than later".


His prediction had proven to be prescient the very next day.


Now the world awaits as to the response of Israel in regards to the attack by Iran.


Before Tehran launched its attack, Israel warned Iran that it would suffer “the consequences for choosing to escalate the situation any further”.


Israel has not revealed what a potential response would look like.


An Israeli attack on Iran’s territory, possibly targeting military or nuclear sites, could not be ruled out, according to experts.


If Israel were to choose to retaliate against Iran, it will likely be able to count on the backing and support of America.


"We are devoted to the defense of Israel," Biden had unequivocally stated last Friday.. "We will support Israel. We will defend, help defend Israel and Iran will not succeed."


Even from the time before the Iranian Attack , Elon Musk has been expressing concerns about the possibility of a third world war amid the escalating tension between Iran and Israel.


“World War III is a civilizational risk that we may not recover from," Musk posted on X. "Could this lead to WW3? We need to prioritize avoiding World War III."


The world awaits the response of Israel, to see whether the conflict between Iran and Israel will stop as a one off affair, or will it worsen to a situation that might lead to the break out of World War 3.

Nehru Sathiamoorthy is the author of “While Waiting for the World to end”. He was a columnist at FMT and a frequent contributor to the South China Morning Post, The Star, Malaysia-Today, MalaysiaNow, MalaysiaKini and Focus Malaysia.