FMT:
Analysts divided over Umno’s odds with PN under ‘grand coalition’ plan
4 hours ago
Faiz Zainudin
Azmi Hassan says Umno stands a better chance of winning Malay-majority seats with PN, while Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri says the party does not need to rely on PAS
Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi on the final day of the party’s general assembly revealed plans to unite all Malay- and Islamic-based parties under the concept of a ‘grand coalition’ and ‘Rumah Bangsa’.
PETALING JAYA: Two political analysts are at odds over Umno and Barisan Nasional’s (BN) chances of winning more seats if the party proceeds with its proposed “grand coalition” and “Rumah Bangsa” involving Perikatan Nasional (PN).
Azmi Hassan said Umno’s prospects would be brighter if it worked with PN, as this would allow the party to contest more Malay-majority constituencies.
Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri however argued that history had shown Umno was capable of winning a large number of seats without relying on PAS.
Azmi, of Akademi Nusantara, said post-GE15 election results indicated that Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters did not vote for Umno and BN candidates when the two coalitions worked together.
Azmi Hassan said Umno’s prospects would be brighter if it worked with PN, as this would allow the party to contest more Malay-majority constituencies.
Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri however argued that history had shown Umno was capable of winning a large number of seats without relying on PAS.
Azmi, of Akademi Nusantara, said post-GE15 election results indicated that Pakatan Harapan (PH) supporters did not vote for Umno and BN candidates when the two coalitions worked together.
Azmi Hassan.
He said that following the BN–PH cooperation formed after GE15, as seen in state elections and by-elections over the past two to three years, PH supporters appeared uncomfortable backing Umno candidates.
“Theoretically, Bersatu and PAS supporters would not hesitate to support Umno-BN candidates, given that the majority of their voters are Malay.
“However, cooperation with PH may be more convenient in terms of seat allocation, as there is less overlap with Umno,” he told FMT.
Azmi said Umno needed to win voter support, not just seats. Based on the advantage of voter support, it would be better for Umno to work with PN, he said.
He said there were about 115 Malay-majority parliamentary constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia that Umno, PAS and Bersatu could contest, out of the 222 nationwide.
“After accounting for the 25 seats currently held by Umno and the 74 won by PN in the last general election, there are still many remaining Malay-majority seats. By comparison, PH’s non-Malay-majority constituencies in the peninsula number only around 50 to 55.
“This makes cooperation with PN a better option for Umno, as it offers greater potential to contest more Malay-majority constituencies,” he said.
He was commenting on remarks by PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari that Umno could win more than 40 parliamentary seats in the next general election if it pursued the proposed “grand coalition” and “Rumah Bangsa” with PN.
Fadhli acknowledged that elections were not a matter of simple arithmetic, but said voting patterns showed that PN supporters were capable of backing BN candidates.
On the final day of the Umno general assembly on Jan 17, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi revealed plans to unite all Malay- and Islamic-based parties under the concept of a “grand coalition” and “Rumah Bangsa”.
Zaharuddin of Global Asia Consulting said Umno did not need to rely on either PH or PN to win more seats. He argued that the party instead required internal reforms, credible leadership and a comprehensive strategy.
He said that following the BN–PH cooperation formed after GE15, as seen in state elections and by-elections over the past two to three years, PH supporters appeared uncomfortable backing Umno candidates.
“Theoretically, Bersatu and PAS supporters would not hesitate to support Umno-BN candidates, given that the majority of their voters are Malay.
“However, cooperation with PH may be more convenient in terms of seat allocation, as there is less overlap with Umno,” he told FMT.
Azmi said Umno needed to win voter support, not just seats. Based on the advantage of voter support, it would be better for Umno to work with PN, he said.
He said there were about 115 Malay-majority parliamentary constituencies in Peninsular Malaysia that Umno, PAS and Bersatu could contest, out of the 222 nationwide.
“After accounting for the 25 seats currently held by Umno and the 74 won by PN in the last general election, there are still many remaining Malay-majority seats. By comparison, PH’s non-Malay-majority constituencies in the peninsula number only around 50 to 55.
“This makes cooperation with PN a better option for Umno, as it offers greater potential to contest more Malay-majority constituencies,” he said.
He was commenting on remarks by PAS information chief Ahmad Fadhli Shaari that Umno could win more than 40 parliamentary seats in the next general election if it pursued the proposed “grand coalition” and “Rumah Bangsa” with PN.
Fadhli acknowledged that elections were not a matter of simple arithmetic, but said voting patterns showed that PN supporters were capable of backing BN candidates.
On the final day of the Umno general assembly on Jan 17, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi revealed plans to unite all Malay- and Islamic-based parties under the concept of a “grand coalition” and “Rumah Bangsa”.
Zaharuddin of Global Asia Consulting said Umno did not need to rely on either PH or PN to win more seats. He argued that the party instead required internal reforms, credible leadership and a comprehensive strategy.
Zaharuddin Sani Ahmad Sabri.
“History shows that Umno has won far more seats without PAS. In the 13th general election, Umno secured 88 seats, and in the 14th general election, it still managed to win 54 seats even though BN lost power.
“It was only in the 15th general election that Umno fell to 26 seats due to internal splits, questionable leadership and the emergence of PN as an alternative. So a target of 40 seats is not extraordinary – it is a level that Umno previously achieved on its own,” he said.
He added that, from a data perspective, an Umno–PN vote combination could indeed increase victories in marginal seats.
“However, Malaysia’s political landscape is not static, and while such cooperation may strengthen support in Malay-majority areas, it could weaken backing in mixed constituencies,” he said.
“History shows that Umno has won far more seats without PAS. In the 13th general election, Umno secured 88 seats, and in the 14th general election, it still managed to win 54 seats even though BN lost power.
“It was only in the 15th general election that Umno fell to 26 seats due to internal splits, questionable leadership and the emergence of PN as an alternative. So a target of 40 seats is not extraordinary – it is a level that Umno previously achieved on its own,” he said.
He added that, from a data perspective, an Umno–PN vote combination could indeed increase victories in marginal seats.
“However, Malaysia’s political landscape is not static, and while such cooperation may strengthen support in Malay-majority areas, it could weaken backing in mixed constituencies,” he said.
No comments:
Post a Comment