Europe Divided Over Plans to Escalate Ground Force Deployments in Ukraine: France and UK Lead Push For Escalation
Eastern Europe and Central Asia , Ground
European states remain deeply divided over the possible large scale deployment of ground forces in Ukraine, which has gained growing support from countries across the continent over the past year. According to a report from The Times, the despite having espoused some of the most hostile rhetoric towards Russia, the Baltic States and Poland have nevertheless shown apprehensions towards such escalation due to the risk that the fallout could leave them exposed. Germany, which has also been among the most proactive in arming Ukraine, has avoided committing its support due to looming elections later in February, as the war effort has become increasingly unpopular domestically. France, the United Kingdom, and Nordic states have meanwhile been most supportive of such escalation, although within these countries there has been concern that such operations will not be possible without significant American support. One European diplomatic source informed The Times that U.S. participation would be necessary because “they have capabilities that all of Europe lacks,” including the “ability to retaliate at scale if needed.” The new Donald Trump administration is considered highly unlikely to commit to such escalation.
In November 2024 the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service disclosed information on plans by NATO members to initiate a major ground force deployment to temporarily suspend ongoing hostilities, with the goal of stemming Ukrainian losses and building up local forces to later resume hostilities on more favourable terms. Citing its intelligence sources, the agency reported that as chances for a Ukrainian recovery on the frontlines diminished, NATO members were increasingly in favour of ending hostilities before Russian forces claimed more territory. The goal would be to “prepare it for an attempt at revenge,” with NATO training centres having already begun to be set up to process at least one million new Ukrainian conscripts. This report emerged at a time when Ukraine’s strategic partners in the West had pressed Kiev to reduce the conscription age from 25 to 18, and as growing calls were made to also conscript females. “To solve these tasks, the West will need to essentially occupy Ukraine. Naturally, this will be done under the guise of deploying a ‘peacekeeping contingent’ in the country… According to the plan, a total of 100,000 so-called peacekeepers will be deployed in Ukraine,” the agency added, with with Poland, Germany and the United Kingdom expected to play leading roles.
As among the most outspoken supporters of keeping escalatory options on the table, French President Emmanuel Macron has stated repeatedly that ground force deployments were not ruled out as part of a policy to “do everything necessary to prevent Russia from winning this war.” French forces including large numbers of special forces were reported on January 15 to have deployed for a secret exercise, during which more than 3,000 personnel trained in an area resembling a stretch of the Dnieper River north of the Ukrainian capital Kiev. The French government began considering options for large scale ground force deployments as early as June 2023, with calls for such options to be considered having been raised by figures such as Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, and the Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, among other European leaders. Most recently in mid-November the French paper Le Monde reported that France and the United Kingdom had “reactivated” discussions on troop deployments to Ukraine. The United States has notably been more reluctant than many of its more hawkish European allies to consider escalating the conflict with ground force deployments, and has similarly been less eager that European states to provide new kinds of armaments to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Western advisors, logisticians, combatants, and other personnel have already since 2022 played a very central role on the ground in the Ukrainian theatre, ranging from British Royal Marine deployments for frontline combat operations from April that year, to the Forward Observations Group American military organisation which confirmed the deployment of its personnel to support a Ukrainian offensive into the Russian Kursk region in August. Reports of English, Polish, and French speaking personnel in combat have emerged repeatedly on frontiers from Bakhmu to Kursk, namely as volunteers or contractors, with their contributions having been vital on multiple fronts throughout the conflict. Nevertheless, the deployment of large formations of active ground units could have a new impact on the conflict, as such ‘flag bearing’ forces may well be protected by their countries’ overseas arsenals including their nuclear deterrents, in order to deter Russian forces fro advancing or striking them. Le Monde in early 2024 referred to this as an effort to impose “strategic dilemmas” for Moscow. Russian officials have consistently stated that any Western forces deployed in Ukraine would be targeted as interventionists, much as Western contractors and advisors have already been consistently singled out in precision strikes. There has been growing speculation that efforts to deploy European ground forces to ‘freeze’ the conflict will be paired with escalated diplomatic and economic pressure on Moscow to attempt to ensure that it agrees to terms favourable to NATO interests, and thus does not target Western Bloc forces in the theatre as Russian officials have previously pledged to do.
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