FMT:
HK’s growth to outstrip S’pore’s, survey shows
Consumption and tourism fuel Hong Kong’s resurgence, while weak demand is likely to slow its rival hub.
According to Bloomberg, Hong Kong’s GDP will expand 4.6% in 2023, while Singapore’s will rise 1.4%, down by half a percentage point. (AFP pic)
SINGAPORE: Hong Kong’s economy is expected to grow faster than previously forecast this year as consumer spending rebounds, while growth in rival financial hub Singapore is likely to slow as global demand weakens.
The latest Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted June 1-7, shows growth in Hong Kong will come in at 4.6% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 3.4%. Singapore’s gross domestic product is projected to expand 1.4%, down by half a percentage point, according to the survey.
“Hong Kong’s economy continues to see a consumption-driven rebound supported by tourism, boosting its short-term cyclical prospects,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis SA. Still, there are risks to the outlook from a slowdown in the global economy and rising interest rates, he said.
Economists raised their second-quarter growth forecasts by 1.7 percentage points to 3.3% in the latest survey. The economy is then expected to expand 6.7% in the third quarter and 7.1% in the final three months of the year.
In Singapore, it’s possible the economy may enter a technical recession in the first half of 2023, largely driven by the weakness in manufacturing, according to Alvin Liew, a senior economist at United Overseas Bank. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction in gross domestic product.
Forecasts for headline consumer inflation for Singapore were raised through to next year, with economists now predicting 5% for the full year, up from 4.7% previously, and 3.1% for 2024, compared with 2.8% in the previous survey. Hong Kong’s inflation expectations were unchanged in the survey, at 2.4% and 2.3% for this year and next, respectively.
SINGAPORE: Hong Kong’s economy is expected to grow faster than previously forecast this year as consumer spending rebounds, while growth in rival financial hub Singapore is likely to slow as global demand weakens.
The latest Bloomberg survey of economists, conducted June 1-7, shows growth in Hong Kong will come in at 4.6% in 2023, up from a previous estimate of 3.4%. Singapore’s gross domestic product is projected to expand 1.4%, down by half a percentage point, according to the survey.
“Hong Kong’s economy continues to see a consumption-driven rebound supported by tourism, boosting its short-term cyclical prospects,” said Gary Ng, a senior economist at Natixis SA. Still, there are risks to the outlook from a slowdown in the global economy and rising interest rates, he said.
Economists raised their second-quarter growth forecasts by 1.7 percentage points to 3.3% in the latest survey. The economy is then expected to expand 6.7% in the third quarter and 7.1% in the final three months of the year.
In Singapore, it’s possible the economy may enter a technical recession in the first half of 2023, largely driven by the weakness in manufacturing, according to Alvin Liew, a senior economist at United Overseas Bank. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of quarter-on-quarter contraction in gross domestic product.
Forecasts for headline consumer inflation for Singapore were raised through to next year, with economists now predicting 5% for the full year, up from 4.7% previously, and 3.1% for 2024, compared with 2.8% in the previous survey. Hong Kong’s inflation expectations were unchanged in the survey, at 2.4% and 2.3% for this year and next, respectively.
Economic cycles come and go.
ReplyDeleteMid to long term prospects for Singapore is much better than Hong Kong.
The Fast approaching One Country One System for Hong Kong will lead to its steady decline into an economic backwater.
Last weekend's iron-fist suppression of any deviation in Hong Kong from Beijing's official Fiction of "Nothing happened at Tienanmen Square on April 4-5 1976" bodes poorly for the territory's future.
Wait & see lah IFF mfer, u can last that long!
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