Butterfly effect: Rafizi win increases chance of BN landslide in GE15

Butterfly effect: Rafizi win increases chance of BN landslide in GE15


Rafizi Ramli winning the PKR deputy president race has been widely celebrated among opposition supporters.

However, a survey by Rafizi’s analytics firm Invoke Solutions prior to the party polls has surmised that the impact of the former Pandan MP’s victory will likely have the opposite effect on Pakatan Harapan’s chances in the 15th general election (GE15).

“Victory for Rafizi will likely kill any chance of a ‘big tent’ opposition approach for GE15 and greatly increases the likelihood of a BN landslide,” Invoke wrote in the conclusion of the survey report.

The “big tent” approach is being espoused by several Harapan leaders for the coalition to work together with other opposition parties to ensure straight fights in GE15.

This is after the Malacca and Johor state elections saw BN winning two-thirds majorities despite winning less than 45 percent of the popular vote thanks to the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system.

Under FPTP, a party only needs to win the most votes in a seat to win - even if the number of votes received is less than 50 percent of ballots cast.

Rafizi has voiced strong objections against the “big tent” approach.

If ballots during GE15 are going to be as crowded as they were in Johor and Malacca, then there is a strong chance that BN may replicate their results and benefit from the opposition splitting their votes.

While BN winning GE15 by a landslide may seem like a nightmare to their critics, Invoke sees a silver lining for PKR in the long run.

“(Rafizi’s victory) will also likely accelerate the party’s regeneration process and create better long-term prospects for the party amongst Malaysia’s general population,” the firm noted.

Rafizi was officially declared the victor of the PKR deputy president’s race on Monday.

PKR support bolstered by Harapan

The official results showed him winning by 16,668 votes over his rival Saifuddin Nasution Ismail - who is widely seen to be backed by PKR president Anwar Ibrahim.

The PKR deputy president-elect had in March said in a Malaysiakini interview that Harapan should forget about reclaiming power, but instead, realistically aim to win 80 Parliamentary seats in order to remain relevant - and deny BN a two-thirds majority.

He has stressed that Harapan should make efforts to win over fence-sitters, to stand a better chance at surviving.

He has also advocated for PKR and Harapan to retake the narrative of bread-and-butter issues away from BN leaders like Najib Abdul Razak.

Meanwhile, on the matter of public support for PKR, Invoke found that 35 percent of respondents said they would, 19 percent would not, and 46 percent were undecided.

However, Invoke theorised that the level of support for PKR was likely bolstered by DAP and Amanah supporters, who would vote PKR since they are in the same coalition.

“(The amount of support for PKR) would likely be lower if PKR were running in opposition to Harapan,” the report said.

There had been growing sentiments among PKR leaders for the party to distance itself from Harapan.

In the Johor polls, PKR decided to use its own logo instead of Harapan’s.

A poll among party members in the same report found that 47 percent favoured PKR going solo, while 34 percent opposed it, and 18 percent were unsure.

The survey interviewed 1,500 non-PKR members and 1,500 PKR members between March 1, and April 8.

The respondents were stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, and socio-economic setting.