Post-Tanjung Piai - What now, Mahathir & Anwar?

Malaysiakini:

Syed Husin calls poll routing referendum on Dr M's leadership


The Tanjung Piai by-election, which witnessed BN trouncing Pakatan Harapan, is a referendum on Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad's leadership, said Syed Husin Ali.

According to the former PKR deputy president, the message is loud and clear.

“The results are clear. The people are disappointed and want to teach Harapan, especially Dr M (a lesson),” he tweeted this evening when it became apparent BN was headed for a landslide win.

Syed Husin also suggested that Mahathir should step down following the electoral debacle.

“He (Mahathir) knows what should be done with immediate effect. Don't delay it any longer,” he added.

Mahathir personally campaigned for Harapan candidate Karmaine Sardini, speaking at a ceramah in the parliamentary constituency in Johor on Wednesday night.

Yesterday, the prime minister penned a letter to the voters urging them to reject BN candidate Wee Jeck Seng and cautioned them against the racial politics perpetuated by Umno and PAS.

who's the bigger racist 

The Harapan candidate is from Bersatu PRIBUMI and the former MP Dr Md Farid Md Rafik, whose death led to the by-election, was also from Bersatu PRIBUMI.

Mahathir is the founder and chairperson of Bersatu PRIBUMI.

In September, Syed Husin excoriated Mahathir for failing to outline a clear transition of power plan and questioned if other Harapan leaders had been stymied by him.

Syed Husin: Mahathir punca harapan PH berkecai di Tg Piai

berkecai = 'smashed to smithereens', wakakaka 

Syed Husin also criticised Mahathir for downplaying his successor's ability to lead, calling it a betrayal and insult to Harapan.

The prime minister had, during a dialogue session in New York on Thursday, said: "I cannot guarantee that somebody who succeeds me will do well, or maybe not too well."

In an interview with Malaysiakini later, Syed Husin claimed that Mahathir had reverted to authoritarianism.

“Mahathir has become the old Mahathir, especially in the past few months. Old Mahathir means he is dictatorial or authoritarian," he said.

In all likelihood, knowing his stubborn character, arrogance and recognising his by-now-increasing desperation post-Tanjung Piai by-election wakakaka, he will surely ignore Dr Syed Husin's advice and carry on as before, albeit in a more panicky manner, probably blaming everyone else but himself and becoming even more paranoid and suspicious. Don't be surprised if he resorts to his old nasty ways.

The problem for Anwar to forcefully replace Mahathir is the lack of a clear number (of MPs) to challenge the Old Man WITHOUT seeing the consequential collapse of Pakatan Harapan government. If Mahathir plus his once blue-eyed boy with their respective coteries pull out of PH simultaneously a la merajuk-sabo, Anwar may not have the magic number of 112 to continue governing Malaysia as a Pakatan government PM. And Mahathir is NOT likely to remain as a MP in Pakatan or even a minister other than being the PM.

(above) Azmin's Dökkálfar Dwarfs - Latheefa Koya used to be one - wonder was she recommended by Azmin?

(below) Pandan Cats including Anwar & family

Will Tian Chua & Xavier Jayakumar (both Dwarfs) follow the Chief Dwarf? Really, there's no place for them where Mahathir and Azmin may go, wakakaka

As for Zuraida Kamarudin & Baru Bian, both are devoted acolytes of Azmin so both would be lost to Anwar, but Saifuddin Abdullah may be 50:50

And if Anwar makes his move and wins, I bet Mahathir and Azmin will do just that, pull out of PH to join UMNO and PAS, and form a new 'Malay Dignity Party', wakakaka. Mahathir still hasn't completed his personal "agenda".

There may be some salvaging options for Anwar to prevent such a PRIBUMI-Dwarfs sabotaging collapse, some of which may not be palatable to PKR and DAP, namely:

(a) coopt some of PRIBUMI MPs but the small group are made up of his original 12 clowns (13 minus 1 wakakaka) and the unpalatable ex-UMNO frogs, thus all in all, this option is NOT viable (with possibly the exception of Muhyiddin who may still be useful). This option is only for an utterly desperate situation,

(b) coopt some current UMNO (not frogs, thank goodness) who are friendly to Anwar like Nazri Aziz (who coincidentally hates Mahathir), and

(c) Look East to Sarawak and Sabah.

Shafie Apdal has 9 in his pocket 

The magic number to form government is 112, wakakaka.

PRIBUMI's Rais Hussin appears to be an intellectual asset for coopting. Coincidentally Mahathir doesn't appreciate nor like him because he is not a Bodek-ite and didn't croon over the Emperor's new clothing, wakakaka. But alas, he is NOT a MP. Anyway, Rais Hussin is not in the current equation so let's talk about him later in another post.

By the by, just a note to point out that PRIBUMI-Dwarf ADUNs may cause the collapse of state governments but have no effect on Anwar attempting to form the federal government. It's likely the current Perak Pakatan state government may fall (if two frogs make the break, wakakaka).

If Azmin does not frog out of Pakatan with his godfather-uncle to the 'Malay Dignity Party' or elsewhere, Anwar can count on PKR's 47 but now 50 MPs, DAP's 42, and hopefully Amanah's 11 = 103.

With Shafie Apdal's Warisan (8 but now 9), Anwar will have 112 gnam gnam without the need for PRIBUMI.

There is still Wilfred Madius Tangau with 1 UPKO seat but that's for Anwar to coopt. And we haven't as yet consider Sarawak's.

Wilfred Madius Tangau UPKO (1 only) 

But doubts exist over the Sandakan (wakakaka) Scarlet Pimpernel - how many will he take with him to join Mahathir when the Old Man, on being told to leave the PM seat and make way for Anwar, merajuk and leaves for the 'Malay Dignity Party'?

For sure, we can minus 3 (Azmin, Zuraida and Baru Bian) but who else are in the Sandakan-ish camp (wakakaka), assuming Tian Chua, Xaver Jayakumar and Saifuddin Abdullah stay put in PKR??

Baru Bian, PKR Sarawak Top Honcho & a Dwarf 

If the Sandakan Defection can be contained to only 3, Anwar may still have a chance because the reduction is not so damaging, wakakaka.