The Manchurian electorate in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, how big?
Thursday, 11 Jun 2026 9:41 AM MYT
By Praba Ganesan
JUNE 11 — Fascinating does not entirely encapsulate the insane stratagems underway in Johor and Negeri Sembilan’s elections.
Granted they are extensions of national anxieties accelerated by these assembly polls.
The Election Commission (EC) meets tomorrow, June 12, to decide polling day, most likely around the World Cup final on July 20.
An overarching theme to the elections is identity politics and its grip on our national politics.
The July vote counts will put to bed the notion, or not, that race gets an outsized say still in 2026 Malaysia.
A litmus test of how far the country has come, and whether the spirit of 2022 reemerges.
It’s loud out there. The key developments involve the Perikatan Nasional's (PN) existential crisis, Barisan Nasional’s (BN) return to basics via induced amnesia and Pakatan Harapan’s hold to its tradition driven by DAP.
Dancing around all this is Anwar Ibrahim, waiting without cutting ties with anyone.
The grand unity plan
The Islamist PAS turned the heat up to maximum this week by announcing an end to co-operation with Bersatu.
Yet, this decision does not mean its exit from PN. Read between the lines, PAS feels it took the relationship as far as possible and it’s time Muhyiddin Yassin’s troops vacated the PN residences.
Funnily, Bersatu feels the same way. A classic separation with paperweights cum partner cum offspring Gerakan and Malaysian Indian People’s Party (MIPP) hoping beyond hope they do not get sent to orphanages.
PAS wants the new girlfriend Reset Malaysia to move in.
And also, extends invites to every Malay-first organisation. It rounded up Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang), Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra), Parti Berjasa Malaysia (Berjasa) and Parti Perikatan India Muslim Nasional (Iman). Ibrahim Ali gets a lifeboat from his old PAS pals.
PAS reactivated Annuar Musa, former Umno secretary-general and now central committee member, to resuscitate Muafakat Nasional immediately.
Ask Umno to submit to the greater good, the ultimate unity vehicle. Annuar says it does not matter what it is called as long as all Malay leaders come together, right now. I'd call it Trantor.
Muafakat gets the firm support from Umno Youth Chief Akmal Saleh but not party president Zahid Hamidi.
Zahid is not amiss to sense PAS wants to overwhelm Umno’s current Rumah Bangsa with its even bigger ambition.
The author argues that the Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections are being driven by a contest over identity politics, with parties trying to outdo each other as more important issues are sidelined. — Picture by Firdaus Latif
PAS wants it all. Because lightweights Gerakan and MIPP are asked to stay despite them allowed zero input to the PAS manoeuvres.
They are so light, they have to stay, less risk floating away to Neptune, or even as far as Trantor.
Do not misunderstand, the “others” parties are welcome but the goal is to be the unapologetic grand Malay-first coalition. Umno is welcome but this train is departing from the platform, either way.
This is PAS’ riposte to Bersatu, it builds a better supergroup than PN in 2022. Except despite the inroads in that general election for both PAS and Bersatu in the Semenanjung back then, the former did not win any parliamentary seats in Johor or Negeri Sembilan.
PAS style does not click as much in the south but ambition they believe can take them across the finishing line.
PAS has a single strategy, that Malaysians have got even more polarised, especially the lower age-groups and they will heed the clarion call. That enough Malays will vote for the grand coalition.
This is more PAS than PN, and the evidence is not only in the decision to use the party logo for Johor.
It is more evident in how muted PN chairman Samsuri Mokhtar is, ceding authority to his party leaders Hadi Awang and Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man.
Umno gets mirrored
Up to June, when Onn Hafiz set a course for elections, Umno was on the up.
Its 80th anniversary, and the homecoming of who’s who in Malay politics. Even MCA and MIC were out partying in the streets, ready to collect seat victories on the shoulder of big brother.
They felt the only downside was the association with Pakatan inside the Madani government, and therefore the need to put distance between Umno and DAP.
That’s what they thought till PAS went into overdrive this week.
Now, they are in a race to rack up their Malay credentials as PAS and Reset Malaysia play up their romance for the sake of Malays under threat.
It has to politely shy away from PAS’ “true” Malay movement even if Akmal foolishly wills it.
Expect the op-eds on how Pejuang, Iman and Putra saddling up beside PAS is insignificant.
After all, as Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA), all three parties lost all deposits at the 2022 General Election.
Yet, younger voters are a bother.
At the last state polls, with 55 per cent turnout, BN snatched 40 of the 56 seats, or 71 per cent.
Eight months later at the general election when 73 per cent or an increase of over one million voters, BN only secured nine of the 26 seats (35 per cent). When more showed up, ostensibly more younger voters, BN suffered.
The Manchurian Test
In the 1962 thriller The Manchurian Candidate, a political candidate was brainwashed with a trigger word planted through hypnosis.
That the candidate cannot help himself, the idea is too embedded in the person that once activated he can only do what he is programmed to do.
Malaysia may have a degree of the Manchurian Candidate, in our case the voters, not the election candidates.
That Malay voters — by virtue of living through lives dominated by PAS clerics and Umno right-wingers — cannot refuse the allure of the dream united Malay movement. That once triggered, everything else pales in significance.
For the sake of balance, let’s consider Johor’s challenges.
Facilitate the Johor- Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) undertaking. While GDP growth exceeds the national average, electricity supply is not amped up to match the investment.
This is central to the jobs creation venture to raise the state median monthly wage above the national median which is a couple of hundred above RM3,000. With better and higher paying jobs, the ability to own homes in an inflated market.
While the Johor Economic Transformation Plan intends to raise the game at the other towns — Mersing, Segamat, Kluang and Batu Pahat for instance — it is still about the state capital region gobbling up growth.
The RTS Link, the game-changer ,kicks off in 2027 but question marks ensue about the Johor end processing 40,000 passengers daily.
If smooth travels from the Singapore end are met by bottlenecks on the Johor side, all may come to naught.
That’s just a short list, and insanely, none are campaign issues.
Both Umno-BN and PAS-Muafakat are convinced that the votes centre around who is more Malay dedicated and the Manchurian effect triggers as election day looms.
Which means, if like in 2022, the online vitriol hits fever pitch to drown out all other considerations.
Scare voters about the spectre of not-Malay enough winners, and therefore government.
There is a toll here. The sanity of the people. The Manchurian effect is about psychological trauma, in this case of entire peoples'.
That people are constantly made to be afraid of dangers they cannot see and the need to suspend reason and to become completely tribal.
These politicians forget that these people they milk for votes have to live between elections too.
Living daily with the fear of the loss of Malay power leaves a regular person troubled. And fuels social ills. Not that the politicians care, they have elections to win.
JUNE 11 — Fascinating does not entirely encapsulate the insane stratagems underway in Johor and Negeri Sembilan’s elections.
Granted they are extensions of national anxieties accelerated by these assembly polls.
The Election Commission (EC) meets tomorrow, June 12, to decide polling day, most likely around the World Cup final on July 20.
An overarching theme to the elections is identity politics and its grip on our national politics.
The July vote counts will put to bed the notion, or not, that race gets an outsized say still in 2026 Malaysia.
A litmus test of how far the country has come, and whether the spirit of 2022 reemerges.
It’s loud out there. The key developments involve the Perikatan Nasional's (PN) existential crisis, Barisan Nasional’s (BN) return to basics via induced amnesia and Pakatan Harapan’s hold to its tradition driven by DAP.
Dancing around all this is Anwar Ibrahim, waiting without cutting ties with anyone.
The grand unity plan
The Islamist PAS turned the heat up to maximum this week by announcing an end to co-operation with Bersatu.
Yet, this decision does not mean its exit from PN. Read between the lines, PAS feels it took the relationship as far as possible and it’s time Muhyiddin Yassin’s troops vacated the PN residences.
Funnily, Bersatu feels the same way. A classic separation with paperweights cum partner cum offspring Gerakan and Malaysian Indian People’s Party (MIPP) hoping beyond hope they do not get sent to orphanages.
PAS wants the new girlfriend Reset Malaysia to move in.
And also, extends invites to every Malay-first organisation. It rounded up Parti Pejuang Tanah Air (Pejuang), Parti Bumiputera Perkasa Malaysia (Putra), Parti Berjasa Malaysia (Berjasa) and Parti Perikatan India Muslim Nasional (Iman). Ibrahim Ali gets a lifeboat from his old PAS pals.
PAS reactivated Annuar Musa, former Umno secretary-general and now central committee member, to resuscitate Muafakat Nasional immediately.
Ask Umno to submit to the greater good, the ultimate unity vehicle. Annuar says it does not matter what it is called as long as all Malay leaders come together, right now. I'd call it Trantor.
Muafakat gets the firm support from Umno Youth Chief Akmal Saleh but not party president Zahid Hamidi.
Zahid is not amiss to sense PAS wants to overwhelm Umno’s current Rumah Bangsa with its even bigger ambition.
The author argues that the Johor and Negeri Sembilan elections are being driven by a contest over identity politics, with parties trying to outdo each other as more important issues are sidelined. — Picture by Firdaus Latif
PAS wants it all. Because lightweights Gerakan and MIPP are asked to stay despite them allowed zero input to the PAS manoeuvres.
They are so light, they have to stay, less risk floating away to Neptune, or even as far as Trantor.
Do not misunderstand, the “others” parties are welcome but the goal is to be the unapologetic grand Malay-first coalition. Umno is welcome but this train is departing from the platform, either way.
This is PAS’ riposte to Bersatu, it builds a better supergroup than PN in 2022. Except despite the inroads in that general election for both PAS and Bersatu in the Semenanjung back then, the former did not win any parliamentary seats in Johor or Negeri Sembilan.
PAS style does not click as much in the south but ambition they believe can take them across the finishing line.
PAS has a single strategy, that Malaysians have got even more polarised, especially the lower age-groups and they will heed the clarion call. That enough Malays will vote for the grand coalition.
This is more PAS than PN, and the evidence is not only in the decision to use the party logo for Johor.
It is more evident in how muted PN chairman Samsuri Mokhtar is, ceding authority to his party leaders Hadi Awang and Tuan Ibrahim Tuan Man.
Umno gets mirrored
Up to June, when Onn Hafiz set a course for elections, Umno was on the up.
Its 80th anniversary, and the homecoming of who’s who in Malay politics. Even MCA and MIC were out partying in the streets, ready to collect seat victories on the shoulder of big brother.
They felt the only downside was the association with Pakatan inside the Madani government, and therefore the need to put distance between Umno and DAP.
That’s what they thought till PAS went into overdrive this week.
Now, they are in a race to rack up their Malay credentials as PAS and Reset Malaysia play up their romance for the sake of Malays under threat.
It has to politely shy away from PAS’ “true” Malay movement even if Akmal foolishly wills it.
Expect the op-eds on how Pejuang, Iman and Putra saddling up beside PAS is insignificant.
After all, as Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA), all three parties lost all deposits at the 2022 General Election.
Yet, younger voters are a bother.
At the last state polls, with 55 per cent turnout, BN snatched 40 of the 56 seats, or 71 per cent.
Eight months later at the general election when 73 per cent or an increase of over one million voters, BN only secured nine of the 26 seats (35 per cent). When more showed up, ostensibly more younger voters, BN suffered.
The Manchurian Test
In the 1962 thriller The Manchurian Candidate, a political candidate was brainwashed with a trigger word planted through hypnosis.
That the candidate cannot help himself, the idea is too embedded in the person that once activated he can only do what he is programmed to do.
Malaysia may have a degree of the Manchurian Candidate, in our case the voters, not the election candidates.
That Malay voters — by virtue of living through lives dominated by PAS clerics and Umno right-wingers — cannot refuse the allure of the dream united Malay movement. That once triggered, everything else pales in significance.
For the sake of balance, let’s consider Johor’s challenges.
Facilitate the Johor- Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) undertaking. While GDP growth exceeds the national average, electricity supply is not amped up to match the investment.
This is central to the jobs creation venture to raise the state median monthly wage above the national median which is a couple of hundred above RM3,000. With better and higher paying jobs, the ability to own homes in an inflated market.
While the Johor Economic Transformation Plan intends to raise the game at the other towns — Mersing, Segamat, Kluang and Batu Pahat for instance — it is still about the state capital region gobbling up growth.
The RTS Link, the game-changer ,kicks off in 2027 but question marks ensue about the Johor end processing 40,000 passengers daily.
If smooth travels from the Singapore end are met by bottlenecks on the Johor side, all may come to naught.
That’s just a short list, and insanely, none are campaign issues.
Both Umno-BN and PAS-Muafakat are convinced that the votes centre around who is more Malay dedicated and the Manchurian effect triggers as election day looms.
Which means, if like in 2022, the online vitriol hits fever pitch to drown out all other considerations.
Scare voters about the spectre of not-Malay enough winners, and therefore government.
There is a toll here. The sanity of the people. The Manchurian effect is about psychological trauma, in this case of entire peoples'.
That people are constantly made to be afraid of dangers they cannot see and the need to suspend reason and to become completely tribal.
These politicians forget that these people they milk for votes have to live between elections too.
Living daily with the fear of the loss of Malay power leaves a regular person troubled. And fuels social ills. Not that the politicians care, they have elections to win.
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