PKR GE16 analysis flags 'marginal', 'red zone' seats for Anwar and top leaders

PKR GE16 analysis flags 'marginal', 'red zone' seats for Anwar and top leaders

B Nantha Kumar
Published: May 5, 2026 9:00 AM
Updated: 11:22 AM



EXCLUSIVE | The unity government in Putrajaya may project an image of stability, but beneath that polished façade, a far more uncertain picture is emerging.

An internal PKR strategic analysis for the 16th general election, presented by deputy president Nurul Izzah Anwar, exposes the fault lines beginning to surface.

The document, titled “GE16 Strategic Analysis: Tier-Based Summary” and sighted by Malaysiakini, shows that PKR is on the defensive, with its grip on key seats steadily eroding.

Based on the analysis presented by Nurul Izzah at the Bandar Utama 11 Community Hall in Petaling Jaya on May 2, attended by nearly 900 party leaders nationwide, 66 parliamentary seats have been identified as PKR’s main focus in the upcoming election.

These seats have been categorised into four tiers to map the party’s strengths and risks ahead of GE16.

PKR targeting 66 seats in GE16?

The analysis divides the 66 seats into seven Tier 1 (strong/safe), 13 Tier 2A (leaning strong), 17 Tier 2B (marginal/competitive), and 29 Tier 3 (difficult/recovery).

This breakdown shows that the majority of the seats studied - 46 in total (Tier 2B and Tier 3) - fall into high-risk zones or require significant image recovery.

For context, in GE15 (2022), PKR won 31 out of the 81 parliamentary seats it contested - a drop from GE14 (2018), where it secured 47 seats.

Speaking to Malaysiakini, more than five party sources acknowledged that the decline in PKR’s performance since 2018 was the key reason behind this “tiering” analysis, aimed at identifying constituencies that are becoming increasingly fragile due to shifting voter support.

With only seven seats considered truly safe (Tier 1), the Anwar Ibrahim-led party is bracing for intense battles across the remaining 59 seats to maintain its dominance within the unity government in GE16.


PM status no guarantee

Among the seats won in GE15, several have now been placed in the Tier 2B (marginal) category, including Tambun, held by the party president.

In GE15, Anwar won the seat with a slim majority of 3,735 votes in a tight contest against Bersatu deputy president Ahmad Faizal Azumu.

PKR president Anwar Ibrahim (right) beat Bersatu leader Ahmad Faizal Azumu in Tambun during GE15


“Despite his status as prime minister, PKR’s internal data shows that sentiment in Tambun has not shifted into a safe zone. The analysis emphasises the need for ‘micro-level operations’ at the polling district machinery level.

“This means PKR can no longer rely on Anwar’s appeal as a national leader but must instead resolve highly localised and technical issues.

“Failure to retain Tambun would not only unseat an MP but would symbolically undermine the stability of the unity government,” a party headquarters source told Malaysiakini.

Gombak and Sungai Buloh in the red

Another major shock in the analysis is the placement of Gombak and Sungai Buloh into Tier 3, both held by PKR vice-presidents Amirudin Shari and R Ramanan, respectively.

Amirudin is also the Selangor menteri besar, while Ramanan is the human resources minister.

In electoral terms, Tier 3 represents a red zone requiring extraordinary intervention or special assistance from the central leadership.

Gombak MP Amirudin Shari


“The inclusion of Gombak in Tier 3 shows PKR is concerned about the resurgence of Perikatan Nasional’s influence in Selangor, particularly among young Malay voters.

“The same goes for Sungai Buloh. Ramanan’s victory over Khairy Jamaluddin in GE15 was seen as a near-miracle that may be difficult to repeat,” the source said.

With changing demographics, PKR views Sungai Buloh as highly vulnerable to shifting political currents if support is not quickly rebuilt.


Mixed seats also at risk

The analysis also lists Tanjong Malim under Tier 2B.

As a mixed constituency in Perak held by Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Chang Lih Kang, its position is considered highly critical.

“PKR’s analysis shows that mixed seats like Tanjong Malim can no longer be treated as fixed deposits.

“Erosion of non-Malay support or low turnout from these communities could easily cause the seat to fall to the opposition.

“The proposed strategy prioritises ‘local candidates’ with organic ties to residents rather than parachute candidates from the centre,” said a source from Perak.

Other mixed parliamentary seats listed under Tier 2A and 2B include Lembah Pantai (Fahmi Fadzil), Nibong Tebal (Fadhlina Sidek), Johor Bahru (Akmal Nasrullah Nasir), and Sungai Petani (Taufiq Johari).


Permatang Pauh and an unhealed wound

Perhaps the most painful point for reform supporters is the continued placement of Permatang Pauh in Tier 2B.

The loss of this traditional stronghold of Anwar’s family to a PAS candidate in GE15 remains a political trauma for the party.

“Nurul Izzah’s slides suggest focusing on ‘machinery recovery’ and micro-targeted strategies.

“Placing Permatang Pauh in Tier 2B instead of Tier 3 shows PKR still believes the seat can be recaptured.

“However, it will require a drastic overhaul in how the party engages rural voters, who are now more inclined towards PN narratives,” the source added.

Rafizi and allies in Tier 1

Interestingly, of the seven seats classified as Tier 1, four are held by former deputy president Rafizi Ramli and his allies.

Besides Rafizi (Pandan), the safest seats are Subang (Wong Chen), Petaling Jaya (Lee Chean Chung), and Ampang (Rodziah Ismail) - all considered close to Rafizi.

The other three Tier 1 seats are Selayang (William Leong), Bayan Baru (Sim Tze Zin), and Batu (P Prabakaran).

The analysis also touches on logistics and financial strategy for these safe zones.

“For Tier 1 seats, the strategic directive is to avoid resource wastage. PKR plans to conserve funds, machinery, and logistics here so they can be redirected to critical Tier 2B and Tier 3 areas.

“This is a pragmatic approach rarely disclosed publicly, showing the party is carefully managing limited resources,” the source said.


Targeting 29 lost seats

PKR is also seen targeting the 29 seats it lost in the previous general election.

Among them are Kuantan (contested by secretary-general Fuziah Salleh in GE15), Kulim-Bandar Baharu (Saifuddin Nasution Ismail), Indera Mahkota - where Anwar’s political secretary Ahmad Farhan Fauzi has been named a prospective candidate - and Pagoh, held by Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin.

“Strategies for these 29 red-zone seats include deploying support from central leaders and cabinet ministers.

“The party is also prepared to channel extraordinary logistical and financial resources into these constituencies.

“The aim is to reduce the opposition’s majority and retain deposits in GE16, while also building long-term groundwork for GE17,” the source said.

Malaysiakini has contacted Nurul Izzah, Fuziah, and Fahmi for comment.