Survey: China returns as South-east Asia’s preferred superpower as fears grow over Trump’s policies

Survey: China returns as South-east Asia’s preferred superpower as fears grow over Trump’s policies



In a forced-choice scenario between the two powers, 52 per cent of participants chose China, while 48 per cent opted for the United States. — Reuters pic

Tuesday, 07 Apr 2026 3:27 PM MYT


SINGAPORE, April 7 — The State of South-east Asia 2026 report, published by the Asean Studies Centre at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute on April 7, indicates a shift in regional alignment preferences.

According to The Straits Times, for the second time in three years, China has overtaken the United States as the favored superpower among Asean respondents.


In a forced-choice scenario between the two powers, 52 per cent of participants chose China, while 48 per cent opted for the United States.

This marks a reversal from 2025, when the US held the lead. Previous data shows China first took the lead in 2024 with 50.5 per cent compared to the US at 49.5 per cent.


Despite these leanings, the regional consensus remains focused on strategic autonomy. 55.2 per cent of respondents advocate for increased Asean unity to withstand pressure from major powers, while 24.1 per cent support maintaining a non-aligned position.


The survey identified Donald Trump’s foreign policy as the leading geopolitical anxiety in the region.

Economic anxieties have also risen following the implementation of reciprocal global tariffs by the Trump administration, affecting Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand.


Consequently, 20.7 per cent of those surveyed now prioritise the creation of alternative supply chains.

Pessimism regarding US relations has nearly doubled, rising from 14.2 per cent in 2025 to 29.5 per cent in 2026. 35 per cent of respondents who distrust the US cite fears that American military and economic power may threaten their national sovereignty. 38.5 per cent believe the US should prioritise international law over unilateral actions.

The timing of the survey (January 5 to February 20) coincided with US military actions in Venezuela and strikes on Iran. The subsequent death of Ali Khamenei on February 28 and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to energy shortages and price hikes in Malaysia and Thailand.

China is viewed as the most influential economic power (55.9 per cent) and political-strategic power (40 per cent) in the region. However, the nature of regional concern regarding China has shifted:30.3 per cent now identify interference in domestic affairs as their primary concern.

28 per cent remain concerned regarding maritime tactics in the South China Sea and the Mekong River.
35.1 per cent stated that China could improve relations by resolving territorial disputes via international law.

While China and the US compete for influence, Japan remains the most trusted external partner with a 65.6 per cent trust rating. The European Union follows in second place at 55.9 per cent.

The survey reached 2,008 respondents across various sectors, including government, academia, media, and private business.