Think-tank predicts Umno, MCA, MIC presidents all losing seats in GE15
Emir Research projects that senior Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional leaders are headed towards defeat in the 15th general election. — Picture by Farhan Najib
Thursday, 17 Nov 2022 7:28 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 17 — Senior Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional leaders are headed towards defeat in the 15th general election, according to a new projection by Emir Research.
The think-tank of Bersatu co-founder Rais Hussin, who was now a PKR member, predicted that Pakatan Harapan would gain a plurality of 94 seats in Peninsular Malaysia, ahead of BN’s 46.
It also saw PN’s revival fizzling out by Saturday, giving the coalition just 24 seats including coalition chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Pagoh.
The forecast did not include Sabah and Sarawak.
The projection also put Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as likely to lose in Bagan Datuk while deputy president Datuk Mohamad Hasan would win in Rembau, leaving him the most senior party leader in Parliament.
Caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob would also win in his Bera seat, albeit narrowly.
Gerakan Tanah Air would be wiped out entirely despite contesting over 100 seats, with only former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad expected to win in Langkawi.
It also predicted caretaker finance minister Datuk Seri Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz making an unsuccessful electoral debut in Kuala Selangor, projecting him to lose to the incumbent from PH.
Other notable projections include MCA president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong being ousted in his Ayer Hitam seat and MIC president Tan Sri SA Vigneswaran losing in Sungai Siput.
Were these predictions to come true, it would leave BN in an unprecedented scenario with all three presidents of its founding parties being rejected by voters.
As for PN, Datuk Seri Azmin Ali would be a casualty in Gombak, as would Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin in Larut. PAS would emerge the dominant force in the coalition, with Emir Research predicting the Islamist party would win most of its seats in Kelantan and Terengganu.
On the PH end, Emir Research expected both Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his wife, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, to scrape through in Tambun and Bandar Tun Razak, respectively, with no major upsets on the cards for the coalition.
According to Emir Research, it arrived at its projections by analysing historical trends of previous elections, reviewing its own quarterly sentiment surveys, and modelling the outcomes of the previous general election.
It also performed a meta-analysis of other poll results released between the middle of October until now.
“Emir Research team has paid attention to the distribution of poll-reported popular votes across few important demographic variables such as gender, ethnicity, and domicile.
“Then these results were combined with the actual proportions of those demographics among the voters in various states in Malaysia and averaged using meta-analytical software,” the outfit said.
* The report previously misstated that Datuk Seri Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz was contesting in Tanjung Karang instead of Kuala Selangor. The error has since been corrected.
Thursday, 17 Nov 2022 7:28 PM MYT
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 17 — Senior Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional leaders are headed towards defeat in the 15th general election, according to a new projection by Emir Research.
The think-tank of Bersatu co-founder Rais Hussin, who was now a PKR member, predicted that Pakatan Harapan would gain a plurality of 94 seats in Peninsular Malaysia, ahead of BN’s 46.
It also saw PN’s revival fizzling out by Saturday, giving the coalition just 24 seats including coalition chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Pagoh.
The forecast did not include Sabah and Sarawak.
The projection also put Umno president Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as likely to lose in Bagan Datuk while deputy president Datuk Mohamad Hasan would win in Rembau, leaving him the most senior party leader in Parliament.
Caretaker prime minister Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob would also win in his Bera seat, albeit narrowly.
Gerakan Tanah Air would be wiped out entirely despite contesting over 100 seats, with only former prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad expected to win in Langkawi.
It also predicted caretaker finance minister Datuk Seri Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz making an unsuccessful electoral debut in Kuala Selangor, projecting him to lose to the incumbent from PH.
Other notable projections include MCA president Datuk Seri Wee Ka Siong being ousted in his Ayer Hitam seat and MIC president Tan Sri SA Vigneswaran losing in Sungai Siput.
Were these predictions to come true, it would leave BN in an unprecedented scenario with all three presidents of its founding parties being rejected by voters.
As for PN, Datuk Seri Azmin Ali would be a casualty in Gombak, as would Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin in Larut. PAS would emerge the dominant force in the coalition, with Emir Research predicting the Islamist party would win most of its seats in Kelantan and Terengganu.
On the PH end, Emir Research expected both Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and his wife, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail, to scrape through in Tambun and Bandar Tun Razak, respectively, with no major upsets on the cards for the coalition.
According to Emir Research, it arrived at its projections by analysing historical trends of previous elections, reviewing its own quarterly sentiment surveys, and modelling the outcomes of the previous general election.
It also performed a meta-analysis of other poll results released between the middle of October until now.
“Emir Research team has paid attention to the distribution of poll-reported popular votes across few important demographic variables such as gender, ethnicity, and domicile.
“Then these results were combined with the actual proportions of those demographics among the voters in various states in Malaysia and averaged using meta-analytical software,” the outfit said.
* The report previously misstated that Datuk Seri Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz was contesting in Tanjung Karang instead of Kuala Selangor. The error has since been corrected.
I would take this analysis with a pinch of salt seeing who is the co-founder of the research organisation.
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