Fierce fight between PN, Harapan in Kedah, BN on sidelines
GE15 | As the country heads to the polls tomorrow, time is running out for political parties up north as there are signs that no one party is confident of a big win in Kedah.
Malaysiakini's observations so far have found that fierce competition in the state mostly involves Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Pakatan Harapan.
The two coalitions are perceived to be dominating respective strongholds and will fiercely defend their territories.
Based on observations, PN is likely to retain the parliamentary seats of Sik and Jerai, while Harapan is expected to keep Alor Setar, Kuala Kedah, Merbok, Sungai Petani, Pokok Sena and Kulim Bandar Baharu.
Even so, Harapan is seeking to gain ground but the sudden death of its Padang Serai incumbent and candidate, M Karupaiya, may have dampened the coalition’s momentum.
Seats to look out for
In addition, there are at least five swing seats with a 50-50 chance for both PN and Harapan. These seats include Jerlun, Kubang Pasu, Pendang and Baling.
In Jerlun, the incumbent, Pejuang’s Mukhriz Mahathir is seen to be struggling to compete with the popularity of PN candidate Abd Ghani Ahmad, BN’s Othman Aziz and Mohamed Fadzil Mohd Ali of Harapan.
Additionally, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad is expected to be able to defend his Langkawi seat, with his closest rival so far being BN candidate Armishah Siraj.
A previous Malaysiakini survey found that sentiments on Mahathir’s contributions to the island of the mythic Mahsuri are still favourable.
Incumbent Langkawi MP Dr Mahathir Mohamad
The Kubang Pasu parliamentary seat has also become a hot seat despite the incumbent, Pejuang secretary-general Amiruddin Hamzah, winning with a large majority in GE14.
Amiruddin is receiving strong opposition from BN candidate Hasmuni Hassan, who is seen to have the potential to recapture the BN stronghold.
This also makes Kubang Pasu a key seat that could very well decide BN’s fate in GE15.
However, the coalition also seems to be struggling to maintain its hold on Baling and Padang Terap.
Further complicating the already difficult three-way contest is the influx of young voters, who will cast their ballots for the first time tomorrow.
In Padang Terap, Umno staked one of its vice-presidents, Mahdzir Khalid. On paper, he does not seem to be under heavy pressure from his opponents.
However, given his meagre 1,099-vote majority win in GE14, Mahdzir is not in a comfortable spot against PN’s candidate, PAS Youth leader Nurul Amin Abd Hamid.
PN may have the edge
Meanwhile, Universiti Malaysia Perlis (Unimap) political analyst Muhammad Izmer Yusof views the situation in Kedah as indicative of PN’s and Harapan’s momentum gains.
“In Kedah, I see the real competition is between PN and Harapan. In terms of support at the grassroots level, the advantage is on PN’s side.
“It was helped by the campaign work of key PN leaders who came down to the ground to help their candidates in Kedah.
“This is also the commitment shown by the Kedah menteri besar (Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor), who is actively campaigning,” Izmer said.
The Kubang Pasu parliamentary seat has also become a hot seat despite the incumbent, Pejuang secretary-general Amiruddin Hamzah, winning with a large majority in GE14.
Amiruddin is receiving strong opposition from BN candidate Hasmuni Hassan, who is seen to have the potential to recapture the BN stronghold.
This also makes Kubang Pasu a key seat that could very well decide BN’s fate in GE15.
However, the coalition also seems to be struggling to maintain its hold on Baling and Padang Terap.
Further complicating the already difficult three-way contest is the influx of young voters, who will cast their ballots for the first time tomorrow.
In Padang Terap, Umno staked one of its vice-presidents, Mahdzir Khalid. On paper, he does not seem to be under heavy pressure from his opponents.
However, given his meagre 1,099-vote majority win in GE14, Mahdzir is not in a comfortable spot against PN’s candidate, PAS Youth leader Nurul Amin Abd Hamid.
PN may have the edge
Meanwhile, Universiti Malaysia Perlis (Unimap) political analyst Muhammad Izmer Yusof views the situation in Kedah as indicative of PN’s and Harapan’s momentum gains.
“In Kedah, I see the real competition is between PN and Harapan. In terms of support at the grassroots level, the advantage is on PN’s side.
“It was helped by the campaign work of key PN leaders who came down to the ground to help their candidates in Kedah.
“This is also the commitment shown by the Kedah menteri besar (Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor), who is actively campaigning,” Izmer said.
Kedah Menteri Besar Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor
However, the Unimap Liberal Science Centre lecturer pointed out that BN did not seem to have brought out its top leaders to help its candidates campaign in Kedah.
Izmer said this includes the Umno top two, president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his deputy Mohamad Hasan, who are both busy campaigning in their respective constituencies.
Big brother PAS
BN’s lacklustre performance in Kedah is surprising, especially when the coalition is fiercely competing with its opponents in other states to win as many seats as possible.
Meanwhile, PN’s component parties appear dominant in Kedah, partly due to its marketing strategy of “selling” the coalition as a new product.
However, it should be noted that PN’s presence in Kedah is predominantly due to PAS, with Bersatu appearing to still be looking for the right footing.
However, the Unimap Liberal Science Centre lecturer pointed out that BN did not seem to have brought out its top leaders to help its candidates campaign in Kedah.
Izmer said this includes the Umno top two, president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and his deputy Mohamad Hasan, who are both busy campaigning in their respective constituencies.
Big brother PAS
BN’s lacklustre performance in Kedah is surprising, especially when the coalition is fiercely competing with its opponents in other states to win as many seats as possible.
Meanwhile, PN’s component parties appear dominant in Kedah, partly due to its marketing strategy of “selling” the coalition as a new product.
However, it should be noted that PN’s presence in Kedah is predominantly due to PAS, with Bersatu appearing to still be looking for the right footing.
GTA will be wiped out with many of the candidates losing their deposits.
ReplyDeleteMukhriz must realise that daddy is no longer relevant and cannot prop up boy-boy. He will very likely be ong those to lose in the election; but maybe not his deposit.