Diplomatic flurry to avert Russia-Nato clash over Ukraine
Russian and Belarusian armoured vehicles drive during joint military drills at Brestsky firing range on Feb 2. (AP pic)
MOSCOW: With war clouds gathering over Ukraine, international diplomacy goes into overdrive on Monday with the French and Russian presidents to talk in Moscow and the German chancellor heading to the White House to meet with US leader Joe Biden.
Also on Monday, the German, Czech, Slovak and Austrian foreign ministers were expected in Kiev, which has played down dire US warnings that Moscow had stepped up preparations for a major incursion into Ukraine.
US officials have said the Kremlin has assembled 110,000 troops along the border with its pro-Western neighbour but intelligence assessments have not determined whether President Vladimir Putin has actually decided to invade.
They said Russia is on track to amass a large enough force — some 150,000 soldiers — for a full-scale invasion by mid-February.
Such a force would be capable of taking the capital Kiev in a matter of 48 hours in an onslaught that would kill up to 50,000 civilians, 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 10,000 Russian troops and trigger a refugee flood of up to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials added.
On top of the potential human cost, Ukraine fears further damage to its already struggling economy.
And if Moscow attacks Ukraine it could face retaliation over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — set to double natural gas supplies from Russia to Germany — with Berlin threatening to block it.
Russia is seeking a guarantee from Nato that Ukraine will not enter the alliance and wants the bloc to withdraw forces from member states in eastern Europe.
‘Apocalyptic predictions’
Moscow denies that it is planning to invade Ukraine, and Kiev’s presidency advisor said the chances of a diplomatic solution to the crisis remained “substantially higher than the threat of further escalation”.
On Twitter, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sought to calm tensions, saying: “Do not believe the apocalyptic predictions. Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development.”
President Emmanuel Macron of France, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, will be in Moscow on Monday and Kiev on Tuesday to spearhead efforts to de-escalate the crisis.
He is expected to push forward a stalled peace plan for the festering conflict with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The trip will be a political gamble for Macron, who faces a re-election challenge in April.
Also on Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Biden in Washington.
“We worked hard to send a clear message to Russia that it will have a high price if they were to intervene into Ukraine,” Scholz told the Washington Post in an interview ahead of his meeting.
“I really appreciate what President Biden is doing in the bilateral talks between the US and Russia. They are very difficult.”
Biden has reacted to the Russian troop buildup by offering 3,000 American forces to bolster Nato’s eastern flank, with a batch of the troops promised arriving in Poland on Sunday.
But US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told Fox News Sunday that Biden “is not sending forces to start a war or fight a war with Russia in Ukraine”.
“We have sent forces to Europe to defend Nato territory,” he said.
Scholz said Sunday that Berlin was prepared to send extra troops to the Baltics in addition to 500 soldiers already stationed in Lithuania under a Nato operation.
While he is in Washington, his foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, will be in Kiev along with her Czech, Slovak and Austrian counterparts for a two-day visit.
Scholtz will be in Moscow and Kiev next week for talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
MOSCOW: With war clouds gathering over Ukraine, international diplomacy goes into overdrive on Monday with the French and Russian presidents to talk in Moscow and the German chancellor heading to the White House to meet with US leader Joe Biden.
Also on Monday, the German, Czech, Slovak and Austrian foreign ministers were expected in Kiev, which has played down dire US warnings that Moscow had stepped up preparations for a major incursion into Ukraine.
US officials have said the Kremlin has assembled 110,000 troops along the border with its pro-Western neighbour but intelligence assessments have not determined whether President Vladimir Putin has actually decided to invade.
They said Russia is on track to amass a large enough force — some 150,000 soldiers — for a full-scale invasion by mid-February.
Such a force would be capable of taking the capital Kiev in a matter of 48 hours in an onslaught that would kill up to 50,000 civilians, 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers and 10,000 Russian troops and trigger a refugee flood of up to five million people, mainly into Poland, the officials added.
On top of the potential human cost, Ukraine fears further damage to its already struggling economy.
And if Moscow attacks Ukraine it could face retaliation over the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — set to double natural gas supplies from Russia to Germany — with Berlin threatening to block it.
Russia is seeking a guarantee from Nato that Ukraine will not enter the alliance and wants the bloc to withdraw forces from member states in eastern Europe.
‘Apocalyptic predictions’
Moscow denies that it is planning to invade Ukraine, and Kiev’s presidency advisor said the chances of a diplomatic solution to the crisis remained “substantially higher than the threat of further escalation”.
On Twitter, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sought to calm tensions, saying: “Do not believe the apocalyptic predictions. Different capitals have different scenarios, but Ukraine is ready for any development.”
President Emmanuel Macron of France, which currently holds the rotating presidency of the EU, will be in Moscow on Monday and Kiev on Tuesday to spearhead efforts to de-escalate the crisis.
He is expected to push forward a stalled peace plan for the festering conflict with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.
The trip will be a political gamble for Macron, who faces a re-election challenge in April.
Also on Monday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet with Biden in Washington.
“We worked hard to send a clear message to Russia that it will have a high price if they were to intervene into Ukraine,” Scholz told the Washington Post in an interview ahead of his meeting.
“I really appreciate what President Biden is doing in the bilateral talks between the US and Russia. They are very difficult.”
Biden has reacted to the Russian troop buildup by offering 3,000 American forces to bolster Nato’s eastern flank, with a batch of the troops promised arriving in Poland on Sunday.
But US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told Fox News Sunday that Biden “is not sending forces to start a war or fight a war with Russia in Ukraine”.
“We have sent forces to Europe to defend Nato territory,” he said.
Scholz said Sunday that Berlin was prepared to send extra troops to the Baltics in addition to 500 soldiers already stationed in Lithuania under a Nato operation.
While he is in Washington, his foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, will be in Kiev along with her Czech, Slovak and Austrian counterparts for a two-day visit.
Scholtz will be in Moscow and Kiev next week for talks with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Who wants that war?
ReplyDeleteTo answer this question, look no further than the lessons from the Russo Georgia war of 2008.
Why Georgia dared to raise arm against the the Russian-backed self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia?
The shitstirring Yank agitated & passed fake military info to the then Georgian govt to start the invasion with Yank's full military backings promises.
The truth was there were never any Russian military forces, as claimed by the Yankee Intel, within that self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
When the Georgia attacked, only then the Russian reacted swiftly for counter-attacks within South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Initially the Yank provided sufficient HW to the attacking Georgian militia. But soon the vowed supports dwindled down to verbal shouts in international channels. Leaving the Georgian military to face singlehandedly the onslaughts of the powerful Russian army.
The war led to Georgia lost his total control on the Russian-backed self-proclaimed republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia permanently!
Why the Yank wanted to start this war?
Economy!
The Yank was initiating his rate reversing upward to down the threatening home inflation.
The decline in overall US economic activity was modest at first, but it steepened sharply in the fall of 2008 as stresses in financial markets reached their climax. From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession since World War II.
To expedite the inflows of oversea funds back to US, a war happened in the eastern European front, especially with the Russian, would be a helpful catalyst!
As expected, this Russo Georgia war did pulled back multitude of funds back to US. The flooding of the incoming funds helped US to evade a dire consequences of the rising recession. These funds helped to cushion the impacts of the inflationary forces on the then US economy. It also shorten the duration of the recession in the US.
Meanwhile, the world outside the US was once again been penalized economically, via imported inflation & currency devaluations, caused by the leaving of US funds from these respective countries.
Sound familiar?
The unfortunate thing now for the Yank is this one-trick fiscal pony act can no longer repeat itself as expected.
All the countries outside US knew this Yankee game. Many r well prepared for its repetition. Besides, there is China - a rising stable economic corner stone that can shoulder any manipulative fiscal plays that most other countries can depend on.
There is choice for fund movement. No longer is yankeeland the only destination for safe haven for monetary deposits!
It is fake Russian propaganda to insinuate that want to initiate a war.
ReplyDeleteThere are no US forces in the whole of Europe sufficient to start a war with Russia. What the Yanks have in Europe is a trip wire force, same concept as during the Cold War. A Russian aggression on NATO territory will automatcially involve the Americans, stealth bombers, cruise missiles and all.
It is the Russians who are massing up 120,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, setting up the plans and the capability to invade Ukraine. The only positive thing that can be said is that Putin probably has not made the decision to invade.
The western media, especially the US mouthpieces, r on high heat to propagate the news of the Kremlin having assembled 110,000 troops along the border with its pro-Western Ukraine - as according to US officials!
ReplyDeleteWhat about the media silence on the equally military buildups on the NATO borders?
No military movements? No increments of soldiers?
Wakakakaka… the deployment of roughly 2,000 troops from Fort Bragg, N.C., to Europe!
What happened to those 70,000 US troops who r already permanently stationed in Europe? Germany hosts about half of them, with the US military's unified European Command headquartered in Stuttgart. The Army oversees five garrisons in Germany, and the Air Force's European operations are headquartered at Ramstein Air Base.
Beside NATO has increased its collective military power to the capability of nearly 3.5-million personnel, troops and civilian combined. There r equally humongous amounts of weaponry HW stored & can be quickly mobilized when needed within NATO!
On top of these, there r an additional 7,000 US troops in Europe on shorter rotational deployments as part of a NATO support mission called Atlantic Resolve headquartered in Poznan, Poland.
Ooop… don't miss the Harry S. Truman carrier strike group that has been positioned in the Mediterranean Sea!
These r the ONLY reason that Putin has repeatedly saying Russia has no plan to invade Ukraine - based on a reality check of a long hard & fatal conflict that ALL countries - Russia, Ukraine & EU - DON'T want to get involved with EXCEPT USofA!
Not a smart move from the Russians. The Ukrainians will engage in an asymmetric warfare. The issue is, Russia , cannot consolidate a country that is bordering the Nato alliance. Gorilla operations, with weapons and supplies trickling in from Poland, Czech,.. Russians will bleed out their resources. That is the problem. The Russians cannot isolate or prevent supplies from trickling into the Ukraine…
ReplyDeleteFirst, Russia has NO plan to invade Ukraine. But it would determine his own territory future in the same manner as the Yank defined his vis-a-vis the US resolution on the Cuba missile crisis.
DeleteCan't see the similarity?
Ooop… the USofA could do what he wanted while the Russia can't do the same!
Second, drawing from the aftermath of the 2008 Russo-georgia war, "Gorilla operations, with weapons and supplies trickling in from Poland, Czech, US & his allies etc…" r just hot air!
Furthermore, no any pro-US countries in Europe, EU &/or otherwise, would seriously want a war, in any form, with Russia that's under the guide of strongman Putin!
This is the ONLY lesson that they have learnt hard from the 08 Russo-Georgia war.
Besides, US would only want to fight a nominal short war NOW far far away from his home turf. Any prolonged & high casualty to the US military personnel would turn those hawky Yankee Doodle politikus inwardly looking to save their political career - as the home disaffections raise.
Thus, one sees the recent rushings of the European leaders to INDIVIDUALLY meeting Putin & Zelensky to find compromises SAN heavy US inputs!