Sunday, August 24, 2008

Problems for Anwar Ibrahim in Permatang Pauh?

Well, they did say ‘a day in politics is a long time’. The earlier belief that the non-Malay votes would be the crucial factor in the Permatang Pauh by-election seems to have given way to what one would have expected in the first place, the Malay votes …

… more so when nearly 70% of the voters are Malays.

Perhaps the earlier expectation had been due to the near ‘deadlock’ between PKR and UMNO … which could have changed since the campaign started.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s post Permatang Pauh - MCA & Gerakan invisible?, based on Malaysiakini news item on Friday By-election: CM may declare holiday

… Lim GE has hinted that he may yet declare a public holiday for this coming Tuesday … where he stated:

"Currently, the state government is not planning to declare Tuesday as a public holiday unless we have to.”

"But we are not closing the door on this subject either, in case Barisan Nasional comes up with sudden tactics to stop voters from coming out to vote.”

Whatever the unknown 'tactics' may be, the aim is obviously to ensure Pakatan supporters will have the opportunity to vote.

As I posted yesterday: Declaring Tuesday 26th August as a one-off public holiday for the by-election was raised initially by Lim GE sometime ago, but was then subsequently dismissed by him when he said he and Anwar agreed that would not be advisable.

Does this re-evocation of the public holiday proposal signal a worrying concern in the Pakatan’s camp, that every Pakatan resource must be summoned upon to ensure that Anwar wins in Permatang Pauh?

Unfortunately there are two worrying factors for Anwar’s camp. The first is, perhaps of a smaller significance, the UMNO ‘ketuanan Melayu’ scare campaign re Anwar’s promise to rid the nation of the NEP policy.

Since the Pakatan grabbed 4 States from UMNO, in addition to holding Kelantan, some Malays have bought the UMNO propaganda that ‘Malays are no longer even equals in their own homeland’.

If one were to read Anwar’s policy on his replacement of the NEP, the Malays will still be ‘looked after’, thus there shouldn’t be any need for them to worry about.

Nonetheless the UMNO seeding of fear has found fertile soil - yes, soil that has been ‘tilled’ and prepared for such sowing in the last 40 years since 1969. The message to the heartland is that ‘it’s not just the crops to be harvested but the farmer who may be expected to deliver such a crop’.

The second issue and a far greater one, especially and precisely because the heartland is still a religious conservative society (not unlike the American Bible belt) where the good folks believe 101% in Allah (swt) and all teachings and practices Islamic, full stop!

So the worrying factor for Anwar Ibrahim's campaign is the Saiful factor, and not just him but rather, his oath taking in a mosque. Despite their seemingly nonchalant dismissal of Saiful and his oath, PKR has been having sleepless nights over it because of a lack of equivalent (religious) substantial rebuttal.

On Friday I blogged on The influence of the 'Oath' in Permatang Pauh.

Though I had presented what I thought was a fairly neutral opinion, I was (as usual) vilified as a BN writer and even accused of being KJ –wakakaka – but it did suggest that anwaristas have been very concerned and touchy on the issue of Saiful’s oath taking, and felt sufficiently vulnerable to attack me for ‘leading readers’ in my anti-Anwar direction.

Joceline Tan, the Star columnist on the Malay side of politics (and whom PKR supporters love to hate) wrote in her analysis on the Permatang Pauh by-election A fight to win over Malay fence-sitters:

The PKR side insists that Malay voters tak makan or have not swallowed the implications of Saiful’s testimony.

But PAS central committee member Dr Mujahid Yusof said: “We’re still not sure of the impact. Morality is a serious thing to the Malays and Saiful did swear on the Quran and he did it in a mosque.”

PAS is planning to capture the fence-sitters this weekend by bringing in its three ulama superstars, party president Datuk Seri Hadi Awang, Mursyidul Am Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat and famous spiritual healer Datuk Dr Haron Din.

They are depending on their ulama leaders to provide the Islamic arguments to this thorny issue.

But some like Alwi [UMNO politician Datuk Alwi Che Ahmad] are quite daring. He has told some audiences: “Anwar says the courts are not going to be fair, the police and AG are biased, the DNA will be manipulated. In other words, no one is to be trusted. We can understand it if he doesn’t believe in people but he says he is also not swearing on the Quran. So, who is he afraid of?”

Obviously the UMNO campaign of using Saiful’s oath taking (that he was sodomized by Anwar) is biting, and hurting Anwar Ibrahim considerably. But UMNO being UMNO, they have somewhat degraded the campaign effect with crude, grubby and obscene pantomiming and gestures ….. well, at least to my impression ... but who knows what effect those would have on the more conservative Malay voters in Permatang Pauh?

The PKR strategy to neutralize this damaging-to-Anwar campaign appears to be trucking in the PAS ulamas (after Gus Dur) to buttress the defence of his reputation, people like Pak Haji Hadi Awang.

Malaysiakini also reported that (a not-so-well) Pak Haji Nik Aziz will be present to night (Sunday 24 August).

And of course Lim GE is supporting the de facto leader’s prospects by the possibility of a Penang State public holiday on Tuesday, to maximize the attendance of Pakatan supporters at the polling booths.

Will it be too late for Anwar Ibrahim to take the oath to disavow the sodomy allegations, assuming for an instance that he even wants to?

Today is already Sunday thus (personally) I think so (that is, it’s too late), because such a religio-political momentous event requires time for it to be made known to the ordinary public in Permatang Pauh.

Not every middle age conservative voter in the heartland reads SMs or the Internet. Even if they do, they require time to mull over the issue before making up or changing their minds about the credibility or appropriateness of Saiful's oath.

... but I reckon Anwar Ibrahim will still win - it's his winning majority that may be affected.


  1. If Anwar is NOT guilty , innocent , did not commit sodomy he would have immediately sworn on the Koran that he did not do it .

    But the fact is he did not do it (sworn on the Koran) or dared not do it means he DID do it .He's afraid of the retribution from God .What else is there to say ?

    Kaytee ,

    If you had posted your article or write up in MT or Susan's they will RIP you apart . There are a lot of vultures and hyennas there only people like us dare to thread where devils fear to walk . Chap only occasionally posts there but my twin Loo is there !

  2. but I reckon Anwar Ibrahim will still win - it's his winning majority that may be affected.

    Your prediction is as what I predicted at the onset . If you have noticed , I have not made much comments on P Pauh , this is to prevent info being channel to the relevant parties . My bet is : below 10000 votes might be more !

    Lets see what the others have to say about this !

  3. "He's afraid of the retribution from God .What else is there to say ? "

    Regardless of how we feel about him for other reasons, I think we should give him the benefit of the doubt here... perhaps he doesn't want to do sumpah laknat because he doesn't want to set that precedent or encourage this kind of practice.

    Anyway chaptokam, all the best with your campaign efforts. Your prediction may come true. The problem with PKR by-elections, as we have seen in the past, is that the whole thing turns into a major fiesta/tourist attraction to the point where you can't even tell who is actually a voter in that area. Remember the morale and fanfare going into Ijok? In the end BN won with an even bigger majority. And to make matters worse, this is a whole new ballgame now, a brand new situation... I think only a fool will dare place big money on this.

    Perhaps the PR top leadership sense this ambiguity as well, hence the holiday. They ain't taking any chances.

  4. Bros,

    I say bro AnWar will lose..he himself will sabotage his winning chances ..why?? coz he is a Master of Deception..he has othr bigger agenda den winning d seat.. dis by-E is a personalploy by bro AnWar to stay a winnwr in d worlds eyes..he will lose wat more wth his own party members asking locals not to vote for bro AnWar..


  5. int
    perhaps he doesn't want to do sumpah laknat because he doesn't want to set that precedent or encourage this kind of practice.
    This will start tongues wagging , the local Malay folks believe that if you come clean , why afraid to swear ? Even though the swearing is not as you might say not according to Muslims customs to swear , but the very action of doing it actually allays the minds of the common folk to the extent that they will say oh Anwar tak salah , dia pun ada bikin sumpah ! .
    I think it is this scenerio that Anwar is a bit worried that this will effect the voters .
    Another issue is that Hadi who came by to speak on behalf of PAS only spoke for 10 minutes and immediately left after speafing without the usual of waiting for Anwar to come by and the hugs and embracing each other . This by itself also shows that PAS is offering lip service and might even have gone to the extent to get their supporters to vote for the fella from the off spring of PAS . This is coupled with the fact that posters were seen with Hadi's photo with the caption " Hadi for PM ".

    Bookies have also joined the fray offering 5 to 1 for an Anwar win with more than 15000 votes handicap .You know what this means ? Chinese votes are buying this , and voting the other side ie BN just to make sure Anwar doesn't win big or not more than 10000 votes .

    Lets see what happens on Aug 26th

  6. Bro,

    Is Najib really a Hindu guy?

    Is Lim Guan Eng also Muslim?

  7. Dear All

    Reak Kim Quek's analysis:

    Phua Kai Lit

  8. The RPK and gangs like Susan Loone, Zorro are losing integrity. They have fallen to cult syndrome. Anything Anwar says are treated as gospel. Conspiracy, victimisation are their belief. Can't this people sit back and do objective questioning and rationalising? You can be political, but please do it intelligently.

    Being a staunch supporters of Pakatan Rakyat before the 8 Marc 2008 election, the recent events by Anwar, PKR such as the recent furore created by PKR MP Zulkifli Nordin at the Bar Council forum and MOST IMPORTANTLY ,no action by Anwar and complete silence from him has the great impact on me the see thru the real character of Anwar! The recent PHYSICAL bashing of reporters and photpgraphers by PKR members , confirm that PKR is no much from UMNO. I am 101% sure, if Anwar become PM, we are going to see to worst than Badawi or even Mahathir.

    Look at Anwar cronies pre-1998. Anwar would sure like us to forget his past interest in those mega deals and now dare to say he is croniless!!! What a LIE!!

    Unfortunately the CULT such as RPK, Susan, Zorro seems ignorant about this, strange isn't it, given how these bloggers attempt to trumpet Integrity, Press Freedom, etc

    Why he dare not swear under Quran of the sodomy allegation is REALLY perplexing. Takut???

    The wise saying: "Takut kerana salah, Berani kerana benar"

    So, Anwar you Berani? Only you will know better.

  9. PKR denies bribing Ramlang
    Chan Kok Leong | Aug 25, 08 4:13am

    Parti Keadilan Rakyat has denied that they offered any monetary rewards to imam Ramlang Porigi for his frank testimony this morning.


    Ramlang also revealed that he was only instructed to witness the ceremony by his superiors.


    "I also wish to deny that I received any money to witness the swearing. I was only acting on instructions," said Ramlang in a hastily arranged press conference by PKR at 12.30am this morning.


    On why Ramlang has come forward now, Azmin said the imam had to do his duty.


    "It is a political conspiracy by Umno to use religion to save themselves. And he has to explain the matter to protect the role of the mosques and the institution.


  10. Hahah...last night at Penanti, in front of a humungous crowd (I was there for a short while) the Imam who took Saiful's oath revealed that it was not quite "Halal".

    The BN balloon just burst...
    I'd say Anwar will win with a huge majority.

    The negative BN campaign (and its very sewer-like indeed) mainly serves to harden existing opinions - most of what they purvey is already old news.

    To borrow Stock analyst speak - the market has already discounted the information.

    Those who are already convinced Anwar is a bad character will be triple convinced. Those who think Anwar is a suitable candidate for next PM will remain unconvinced.

    The bookmakers, whose business it is to know the ground sentiment about as well as anybody have got it right...

  11. According to Imam Chaptokam:

    If Anwar is NOT guilty , innocent , did not commit sodomy he would have immediately sworn on the Koran that he did not do it .

    Thereafter, Imam Chaptokam pontificates:

    But the fact is he did not do it (sworn on the Koran) or dared not do it means he DID do it .He's afraid of the retribution from God .What else is there to say ?

    I have to humbly point out to Imam Chaptokam (who is the resident Imam of MCA -- such is the parlous state of the Islamic religion in the Handhari ruined Be-End!) that his knowledge of Islam is outrageously and damnably wrong! Anyway, no thanks for distorting the religion of the majority of Malaysians!

    Now here is something closer to the book, and represents a far better understanding of the religion than the ignorant resident Imam of MCA could ever offer (I hope that Imam Chaptokam has some understanding of Malay). It is from the Imam, no less, who was directed by the powers-that-be to officiate the happy and guilt-free "swearing" of a man who read a prepared text that he obviously did not write. Anyway, this is the truth about the "swearing" of the man on whose arsehole Ameno's sinister wish to win Permatang Pauh absolutely but pitifully rests on:


  12. Dear Kittykat46


    I propose my
    "Second Law of Malaysian Politics"

    i.e. "Those who play longkang politics (gutter politics) often fall into the longkang themselves"

    Phua Kai Lit

  13. What we now have some wise guy chinese imam of MCA preaching about swearing.
    Look we swear everyday at those mother@#$#%s ,cursing and hoping they die with cancer in their arseh@@$#%,but do we really mean it to happen.Its no big deal, perhaps would that chinese mca iman swear on his honour if pressed to a point?
    No matter what , Anwar is not going to take the oath and why should he? If i knock off a man ,should i take an oath to plead innocence?
    Hey chinese iman! wake up ,this is the 20th.century.

  14. I've been disgusted with UMNO and BN's racist campaign in Permatang Pauh. In their desperation, UMNO has been pandering heavily to racial prejudice, trying to convince Malay voters that a vote for Anwar is a vote for DAP and Chinese political power.
    That in addition to their continuous dirty, ad hominem attacks on Anwar.

    By contrast, Anwar has been running an inclusive campaign, a positive campaign for hope and the future.

  15. Hi everyone,

    Latest reveletion by none other than the imam Ramlang from the FT KL masjid that cast doubt over the recent Saiful swearing. This imam revealed all at a PKR ceramah and declared that he was ordered to attend the sumpah laknat. The instructions on what to say was also provided this Saiful at the 'swearing'.

    This news with videos are all over the alternative media, though the MSM either didn't bother to feature it or spin it to satisfy their masters. Make your own conclusions on the MSM.

  16. Hi Ang Wah,

    Exactly,I have the same sentiment as you. But the big problem is that a lot of people still not able to see it. But my biggest concern is that it will not end with the Permatang Pauh election. I think we are heading toward chaos and bloodbath. Our politic now is the worst of all time never see such dirty politic before. Even the 1969 election was not that dirty yet May 13 occurred.

    I hope I am wrong here.

  17. putar belit

    You have correctly analyse the fact that if a superior asked you to witness the ceremony , you have to do your duty , nothing wrong with that !
    Before this came out he was cursed , called all sorts of names ,called a BN and UMNO dog etc .

    Ramlang also revealed that he was only instructed to witness the ceremony by his superiors.

    "I also wish to deny that I received any money to witness the swearing. I was only acting on instructions," said Ramlang

    Well it proves that he was not paid by BN or UMNO to witness the swearing .

    And he has to explain the matter to protect the role of the mosques and the institution.

    He is indeed a righteous guy .

    "It is a political conspiracy by Umno to use religion to save themselves.

    What conpiracy ? Everything here is a conspiracy ! Including the arrest of the two Perak exco s ?
    In the first place why are they discussing that in a hotel ? So BN paid them to discuss that in a hotel !When they were arrested by the ACA , they shifted the blame to Tajol Rosli the former Perak MB . If they have nothing to hide ,what can Tajol Rosli do ? What can the ACA do ? Oh yes this is another conspiracy ! To be caught !

    But surprising Big News like this , nothing written in Susan Loone !

    When the guys who were arrested by the polis for assaulting the two photographers also nothing in those blogs . When the photographers were assaulted , The conspiracy theory were that they were BN people pretending to be PKR people who assaulted them , next they were saying they were agent provocaters by BN , not to be left out , were they were Special Branch operatives . Now that they have been caught and found that they were indeed PKR members , Divisional heads of PKR , suddenly very quite , even if a hornet were to sting them , also no sound from them .

    Back to the swearing thing , the main thing is not the imam witnessing the ceremony , whether senior or junior or chief imam is not the issue . Whether the imam is an UMNO or PKR member is also not the issue . That was just a procedure that someone from the mosque must be around to witness .
    As for the text , whether it is written by him or written by someone is inmaterial . It is still a text . If I were him I would have done the same thing , have it all written down what I want say , just in case I said the wrong thing or missed out certain things as this is a sumpah laknat between him and god .

    But the most important factor is that he swore with a Koran and inside a mosque . Whether I am a muslim or not , I believe NO sane person would hold a religious book and swore something that is not true in a religious place .
    Therefore I believe him NOT the guy who has until today dared not repeat what that young man has done .

  18. ang wah

    well said ,loo seow pek was attacked from all sides in Susan's blog . Imagine all sorts of vulgarities was thrown at him by nothing less than ten commentators . He stood and fight them ( the anwaristas )single handedly . That is the kind of people we find today . People who cannot debate intelligently without emotions . Probably this could be attributed to the facts that these commentators are school children using some internet cafe to do their postings hence their use of vulgarities and no substance in debate . For those able to post good comments they are intellectuals and these are the people I respect .loo seow pek's username was also impersonated yesterday ! in the article Blatant corruption in P Pauh in Susan Loone . See for yourself !how low these people can go !

  19. Chaptokam,
    Loo Seow Pek was practically asking to be savaged in Susan's blog, the way he has been deliberately picking on other posters, instead of commenting on the post subject.

    There ARE pro-establishment posters on Susan's blog who get a decent hearing, if they don't try to behave like a Mat Rempit or Cyber trooper.

  20. Thanks kitty
    I guess loo wanted it way sort of challenge them to a duel . Can't blame him always like that .

    As for me I respect other peoples view , like yours for example , and if I can answer them , I try too also give you my view point .