Analysts see tight race in 7 hot seats

Analysts see tight race in 7 hot seats


10 hours ago
Nicholas Chung


Azmi Hassan, James Chin and Syaza Shukri unanimously agree on six key seats, but differ on Bukit Katil that ex-CM Adly Zahari is seeking to defend

In seven seats, where the racial composition is more evenly distributed a consolidation of Malay votes will benefit the BN-PN partnership.

PETALING JAYA: As the countdown to the 16th Melaka state election continues, seven seats are shaping up to be close contests between the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance and the Pakatan Harapan-Bersatu pact.

In the 2021 election, 13 seats were decided on narrow margins. However, this time around the BN-PN cooperation is widely expected to consolidate Malay votes, thereby converting the slim wins to landslide victories in most of them.

The focus will likely be on several constituencies with a more evenly mixed racial composition previously won by PH, BN or PN. Three political pundits who spoke to FMT share similar views on most of these seats.


Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara, James Chin of University of Tasmania and Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia weigh in on the likely winners.


Bukit Katil

This seat is turning out to be the most closely watched.

Former chief minister Adly Zahari has three opponents to contend with in his search for a third term as Bukit Katil assemblyman.

The Amanah vice-president won with a not-so-comfortable majority of 1,057 votes in the 2021 polls. This time around, the electorate — 64.8% of whom are Malays — is sure to be influenced by the BN-PN alliance.

The odds against Adly, now the deputy defence minister, has risen a notch with Bersama also fielding a candidate. This will prove critical when margins are slim.

Needless to say, losing this seat will deal a heavy blow for PH in Melaka.

Azmi — PH; Chin and Syaza — PN

Ayer Keroh

At 46%, the Chinese account for the largest racial group in this constituency, with Malays coming in a close second at 44%.

The seat has been held by DAP since 2008, and two-term assemblyman Kerk Chee Yee won rather convincingly in 2021 with a 5,624-vote majority.

The increase in the number of Malay voters over the decades has resulted in a more even distribution of voters by ethnicity, and the potential unification of the Malay vote under BN-PN could hand DAP a defeat in a key stronghold.

Nonetheless, Kerk is quite popular among constituents and at age 34, he is seen as a key youth leader in Melaka.

With Bersatu also fielding a candidate, it may split the Malay votes if the contest goes down the wire, giving PH an advantage.

On the other hand, Bersama may again take a chunk of the votes cast by PH supporters.

Unanimous — PH


Paya Rumput

Traditionally a BN stronghold, it was won once by PH — in the 2018 polls — only to be retaken by BN in 2021.

This time around, PH is fielding its federal territories chief, Azman Abidin, who is also political secretary to Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.

Azman also happens to be one of the big guns in PH. He has not shied away from making use of his Putrajaya connections to help Paya Rumput, saying his position as Anwar’s political aide could help bridge the federal and Melaka governments.

BN, on the other hand, has made way for PN, which is fielding Rafie Ahmad in the constituency where Malays make up 62% of the electorate.

The incumbent assemblyman Rais Yasin — who won with just 629 votes in 2021 — is standing in Sungai Udang instead.

Unanimous — PN


Kesidang

This is another DAP fortress. The party has held it since 2008.

The racial composition is fairly mixed, with Chinese accounting for 54% of the electorate, and Malays making up another 38.5%.

Incumbent Allex Seah won by a landslide 10,237-vote majority in 2021.

But the threat of a low Chinese voter turnout, coupled with a consolidation of Malay votes, could be costly for DAP. The party had lost several key strongholds in Negeri Sembilan and Johor under similar circumstances.

Nonetheless, the large majority Seah garnered in 2021 may be too large to surmount for Wawasan’s Albert Kok, the PN candidate who is banking on a Malay tsunami to defeat DAP.

Unanimous — PH


Pengkalan Batu

BN’s decision to field Hang Tuah Jaya Wanita Umno division deputy chief Siti Aisyah Mahmood over incumbent assemblyman Kalsom Noordin initially led to some drama, but the coalition quickly closed ranks.

Kalsom, who is the state Wanita Umno chief, also served as state exco member in the previous administration.

Malays make up 64% of the electorate, followed by the Chinese with 27% and Indians at 5%. Four candidates are vying for the seat.

DAP has won the seat several times, when it was known as Bachang, but lost it to Umno in 2021 by a very slim 131-vote majority in a five-way contest.

This is another seat where Bersatu will clash with PH. Former assemblyman Norhizam Hassan Baktee, infamously known as “YB Hulk” for his fiery temper, may just tip the scale against DAP’s Jason Tze-Xi Nathan.

Unanimous — BN


Bemban

Bemban has changed hands several times. MCA lost it to DAP in 2018, which then lost it to Bersatu in the 2021 polls.

However, incumbent assemblyman Dr Yadzil Yaakub, now with Wawasan, is contesting under the PN banner this time around.

The now-former state opposition leader won the seat by just 328 votes in 2021. Malays account for 62% of the electorate, with Chinese making up 19.7% and Indians 17%.

Umno’s decision to make way for Yadzil left some grassroot members unhappy given that many Wawasan leaders are former Umno members.

Nonetheless, he is expected to have an edge over his rivals from Bersatu and Bersama as well as an independent.

Unanimous — PN


Kelebang

Last but not least is the Kelebang seat where PH and Bersatu will face off yet again.

MCA vice-president Lim Ban Hong is seeking to retain the seat for a third term as its assemblyman, but apart from PH and Bersatu, he will also have to contend with a Bersama candidate.

Bersatu is fielding former Senate deputy president Ali Mohamad, with PKR’s young candidate Farzana Hayani Nasir and Bersama’s Young Jie Yu also in the fray.

At 68.5%, Malays account for the largest proportion of voters, followed by Chinese at 27%.

Lim would be hoping to capitalise on a consolidation of Malay votes to shore up his majority and win by a bigger majority than the 876-vote margin he managed in 2021.

Unanimous — BN