Alastair Crooke Says Trump Has Until Jan. 3 To Strike Iran As Netanyahu Calls "Several Times A Day" Asking For War
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 11, 2026 - 02:20 PM
Former British diplomat Alastair Crooke says President Trump has until Jan. 3 to restart the war with Iran, and that Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing him to do it "several times a day, every day." Crooke, whose wrote last month about the war's cost, told the Daniel Davis Deep Dive that the nuclear option for Iran's Pickaxe Mountain "may not actually do anything," and that Iran will not negotiate until seven conditions are met.
Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a Likud campaign rally in Tel Aviv, Israel, on September 17.Amir Levy/Getty Images)
Host Daniel Davis opened the interview days after what he called "a stinging rebuke" of Republicans at the midterm polls, noting that Trump had met his war council the day before and that a third carrier strike group was about 10 days out. His question to Crooke was whether the election should have ended talk of renewed war. Crooke called the idea "counterintuitive" for Trump, and what followed was a case that the pressure to strike now is coming from the calendar.
"He's Only Got Until The 3rd Of January"
"He's only got until the 3rd of January," Crooke said of Trump. "And after the 3rd of January, it's going to be much more difficult for him to start a war because the new Congress will have assembled." Netanyahu's clock is shorter, in his telling: he "came out badly bruised from the elections," and "He rings him up or people close to Trump several times a day, every day, asking for war because Netanyahu sees this as his only salvation." Crooke's reason is that "The only way that he can produce a unity government is to say we're at war." Crooke gave no evidence for the calls.
Host Daniel Davis opened the interview days after what he called "a stinging rebuke" of Republicans at the midterm polls, noting that Trump had met his war council the day before and that a third carrier strike group was about 10 days out. His question to Crooke was whether the election should have ended talk of renewed war. Crooke called the idea "counterintuitive" for Trump, and what followed was a case that the pressure to strike now is coming from the calendar.
"He's Only Got Until The 3rd Of January"
"He's only got until the 3rd of January," Crooke said of Trump. "And after the 3rd of January, it's going to be much more difficult for him to start a war because the new Congress will have assembled." Netanyahu's clock is shorter, in his telling: he "came out badly bruised from the elections," and "He rings him up or people close to Trump several times a day, every day, asking for war because Netanyahu sees this as his only salvation." Crooke's reason is that "The only way that he can produce a unity government is to say we're at war." Crooke gave no evidence for the calls.
Israel's politics are moving the other way. As we reported, Israel's president has since given Netanyahu's rival, Gadi Eisenkot, the first chance to form a government, with Arab-led parties backing him. Crooke does not expect an Eisenkot government to want Trump's war: "Now, Eisenkot, would he accept a war? I think no, is the answer to that." He said Eisenkot and the chief of general staff "have all said there is no reason to go to an early war with Iran." But he called Eisenkot "just as hard as any of them" on Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon.
The gap in between is where Crooke sees the danger. A caretaker Netanyahu, he said, can still act: "Then he can launch a war legally and the IDF, even if they disagree with it and oppose it, will have to comply." A war would also solve his coalition problem, since "he'll immediately call for unity government and he'll probably get one." Crooke noted that Israel's new Knesset assembles Nov. 9 and that Eisenkot plans a vote on an investigation into Oct. 7, which he called "toxic for Netanyahu." Crooke's conclusion (at 18 minute mark): "So the window is shut. So what we're dealing with is really a last desperate throw of the dice."
A 400-Kiloton Bomb Against A Granite Mountain
Asked about his main concerns, Crooke went through Trump's options, starting with the one that has been discussed since Trump locked his crosshairs: a nuclear strike. The main nuclear bunker buster the United States has, he said, is the [B61-11], which he put at 400 kilotons and described as "a dumb bomb," unguided, dropped from above "and hope that it lands roughly in the right place." Reports put the bomb's maximum yield at 340 to 400 kilotons, and carriage on a B-2.
Crooke's doubt is that it would not reach what it is aimed at. "Well, if that goes off, first of all, it may not actually do anything, because granite is well known. It absorbs that sort of vibration, an explosive vibration." Of the depth, he said "even the experts don't know, but maybe it can penetrate 30 meters," short of the roughly 100 meters he put the target at. If it does explode, he said, "I think for an area around it, for some kilometers, it will be possibly lethal to human beings."
The gap in between is where Crooke sees the danger. A caretaker Netanyahu, he said, can still act: "Then he can launch a war legally and the IDF, even if they disagree with it and oppose it, will have to comply." A war would also solve his coalition problem, since "he'll immediately call for unity government and he'll probably get one." Crooke noted that Israel's new Knesset assembles Nov. 9 and that Eisenkot plans a vote on an investigation into Oct. 7, which he called "toxic for Netanyahu." Crooke's conclusion (at 18 minute mark): "So the window is shut. So what we're dealing with is really a last desperate throw of the dice."
A 400-Kiloton Bomb Against A Granite Mountain
Asked about his main concerns, Crooke went through Trump's options, starting with the one that has been discussed since Trump locked his crosshairs: a nuclear strike. The main nuclear bunker buster the United States has, he said, is the [B61-11], which he put at 400 kilotons and described as "a dumb bomb," unguided, dropped from above "and hope that it lands roughly in the right place." Reports put the bomb's maximum yield at 340 to 400 kilotons, and carriage on a B-2.
Crooke's doubt is that it would not reach what it is aimed at. "Well, if that goes off, first of all, it may not actually do anything, because granite is well known. It absorbs that sort of vibration, an explosive vibration." Of the depth, he said "even the experts don't know, but maybe it can penetrate 30 meters," short of the roughly 100 meters he put the target at. If it does explode, he said, "I think for an area around it, for some kilometers, it will be possibly lethal to human beings."
The smaller B61-12, which he put at 50 kilotons, needs an F-35, and he doubted it has the range from Jordan without refueling. The B-2 that would carry the larger bomb would be vulnerable on its route, he said, since stealth "will only work for a small part of a journey." "What happens if the Iranians shoot it down? Then they'll have a ready-made nuclear bomb in their possession."
Crooke said the argument in Washington is that a nuclear blast would be Hiroshima, and "the Iranians would immediately wave the white flag." He rejected it: "the Iranians would not ever accept a nuclear attack." Conventional strikes, he noted, have already been tried twice. "It didn't bring down the state. It didn't cause an uprising." He called the land-invasion options "pretty, you know, crazy." On why Trump might go ahead anyway, he offered the Greek idea of tragedy: Trump and Netanyahu "have no choice but to make it happen because that is their nature."
No Negotiations Until Seven Conditions
Mojtaba Khamenei, as state media report, said the United States' power had fallen. In Davis's reading: "the declining power and hegemony of the United States has suffered an irreversible fall in both dimensions of its power, its hard military power and its international soft power. The process of the U.S.'s collapse has accelerated." The Leader warned that anyone who thinks "by making concessions to the U.S. they can persuade it to abandon its hostility, they're gravely mistaken." Davis took it as a sign Iran would carry out the strikes on infrastructure it has threatened.
Crooke tied it to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, who met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and delivered the Leader's message, as Iranian media reported. "Rezaei made it very clear that Iran stands exactly behind its position, which is no negotiations until those seven prerequisites that are in the memorandum of understanding that Trump signed at Versailles are implemented." That is Crooke's description of the document; we could not find the Versailles memorandum. The conditions must come first, he said, "not done on a sliding scale, not done one by one, but done before negotiations can start. And the nuclear issue is not first, but last."
He added that, in his view, Iran has reorganized for war: the course of the war is "run entirely by the IRGC through the National Security Council," with President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi there "to give their advice." Even Pezeshkian, of a faction that favors talks, "doesn't see any point in negotiating with the United States," he said. As to Russia, Crooke said there was no readout, and guessed that "Putin advised the Iranians that deterrence was not going to be sufficient to stop the prospect of war."
If the U.S. strikes, Crooke said, Iran will answer beyond the region. As we noted, Khamenei has warned of "no geographical limits." In Crooke's words, "they are going to go after things like data centers. They're going to go after also maybe undersea cables, telephone links," which would do "long term huge damage to the American and to the world economy." We reported on Iranian-linked ships near undersea internet cables.
Will Trump Listen To The Hawks?
Davis played a clip of Fox News commentator Marc Thiessen on Vice President JD Vance, who had said the Republicans lost because of the war. Thiessen: "It was, quite frankly, disloyal to the president of the United States." Davis added that the Wall Street Journal said Vance's theory of the defeat "comes close to a public [counsel] of surrender." His question: "Are you concerned that President Trump may listen to these people and say, no, I really do need to go back and finish the job?"
"I think it's quite possible. I think it's actually most likely," Crooke said. He said such voices never ask about costs: "due diligence on these things? Don't you say, well, what if? What happens then?" What could short-circuit it, he said, were the Israeli politics and the markets, which he said were "close to collapsing" the night before, with "two, nearly three trillion of value knocked off the stock market."
Europe's Ukraine Bill
Davis closed by asking whether Europe has the same dynamic, "not give another 175 billion that they don't have to Zelensky." Crooke said the EU's roughly EUR90 billion loan to Ukraine does not appear in the budget: "You won't find a line entry in the European budget for 90 billion." It was debt underwritten by member states and booked under "headroom," he said. The EU's own description of the loan is that it is funded by borrowing against that headroom, RFE/RL reported.
Crooke said Zelensky has spent most of it and "I need 70 billion urgently and probably 155 billion to get through the next years." We found no source for those figures. "It's not affordable. Everyone can see it's not affordable," Crooke said.
His answer to what Europe will do is that it will keep going, on a seven-year budget that he said needs sharply higher contributions from member states.
Crooke said the argument in Washington is that a nuclear blast would be Hiroshima, and "the Iranians would immediately wave the white flag." He rejected it: "the Iranians would not ever accept a nuclear attack." Conventional strikes, he noted, have already been tried twice. "It didn't bring down the state. It didn't cause an uprising." He called the land-invasion options "pretty, you know, crazy." On why Trump might go ahead anyway, he offered the Greek idea of tragedy: Trump and Netanyahu "have no choice but to make it happen because that is their nature."
No Negotiations Until Seven Conditions
Mojtaba Khamenei, as state media report, said the United States' power had fallen. In Davis's reading: "the declining power and hegemony of the United States has suffered an irreversible fall in both dimensions of its power, its hard military power and its international soft power. The process of the U.S.'s collapse has accelerated." The Leader warned that anyone who thinks "by making concessions to the U.S. they can persuade it to abandon its hostility, they're gravely mistaken." Davis took it as a sign Iran would carry out the strikes on infrastructure it has threatened.
Crooke tied it to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, who met Vladimir Putin in Moscow and delivered the Leader's message, as Iranian media reported. "Rezaei made it very clear that Iran stands exactly behind its position, which is no negotiations until those seven prerequisites that are in the memorandum of understanding that Trump signed at Versailles are implemented." That is Crooke's description of the document; we could not find the Versailles memorandum. The conditions must come first, he said, "not done on a sliding scale, not done one by one, but done before negotiations can start. And the nuclear issue is not first, but last."
He added that, in his view, Iran has reorganized for war: the course of the war is "run entirely by the IRGC through the National Security Council," with President Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Araghchi there "to give their advice." Even Pezeshkian, of a faction that favors talks, "doesn't see any point in negotiating with the United States," he said. As to Russia, Crooke said there was no readout, and guessed that "Putin advised the Iranians that deterrence was not going to be sufficient to stop the prospect of war."
If the U.S. strikes, Crooke said, Iran will answer beyond the region. As we noted, Khamenei has warned of "no geographical limits." In Crooke's words, "they are going to go after things like data centers. They're going to go after also maybe undersea cables, telephone links," which would do "long term huge damage to the American and to the world economy." We reported on Iranian-linked ships near undersea internet cables.
Will Trump Listen To The Hawks?
Davis played a clip of Fox News commentator Marc Thiessen on Vice President JD Vance, who had said the Republicans lost because of the war. Thiessen: "It was, quite frankly, disloyal to the president of the United States." Davis added that the Wall Street Journal said Vance's theory of the defeat "comes close to a public [counsel] of surrender." His question: "Are you concerned that President Trump may listen to these people and say, no, I really do need to go back and finish the job?"
"I think it's quite possible. I think it's actually most likely," Crooke said. He said such voices never ask about costs: "due diligence on these things? Don't you say, well, what if? What happens then?" What could short-circuit it, he said, were the Israeli politics and the markets, which he said were "close to collapsing" the night before, with "two, nearly three trillion of value knocked off the stock market."
Europe's Ukraine Bill
Davis closed by asking whether Europe has the same dynamic, "not give another 175 billion that they don't have to Zelensky." Crooke said the EU's roughly EUR90 billion loan to Ukraine does not appear in the budget: "You won't find a line entry in the European budget for 90 billion." It was debt underwritten by member states and booked under "headroom," he said. The EU's own description of the loan is that it is funded by borrowing against that headroom, RFE/RL reported.
Crooke said Zelensky has spent most of it and "I need 70 billion urgently and probably 155 billion to get through the next years." We found no source for those figures. "It's not affordable. Everyone can see it's not affordable," Crooke said.
His answer to what Europe will do is that it will keep going, on a seven-year budget that he said needs sharply higher contributions from member states.
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