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OPINION | Umno will win if a snap election is called in Negeri Sembilan
6 May 2026 • 2:30 PM MYT
Image credit: Malay Mail / Utusan Borneo
According to an analyst, Umno will lose if a snap election is called to resolve the the political crisis in Negeri Sembilan.
According Ilham Centre research chief Yusri Ibrahim, the think tank's finding in the August 2023 state polls clearly indicates that Umno's victories in the 2023 state election were largely aided by PH’s core supporters transferring their votes to BN candidates.
He also added that many of the 14 seats that Umno won were secured by slim margins, ranging from a few dozen to a few hundred votes.
Thus, if Umno stands for election in Negeri Sembilan without PH's backing, not only will it not win any additional seats, it will likely lose many of the seats that it currently possesses.
I disagree strongly with the Iham Centre's position.
In my estimate, Umno will not only retain the seats that it has if snap election is called in Negeri Sembilan, it will likely win more seats.
Why ?
Well, the first reason is because PH is far more unpopular today, even amongst its own supporters, than it was in August 2023.
In August 2023, PH was still fresh from winning the closely fought 2022 General election. Despite its victory, PH was still threatened by the "Green Wave" from PN, which at the time, was still strong enough to topple the Anwar led Madani government.
Thus, in the August 2023 state election, PH's supporters came out with force to support PH, to ensure that PH continued to rule and PN was kept at bay.
Today however, issues such as the temple demolition controversy and the UEC recognition issue has cost PH much of its core support.
It has caused such massive lost of support for PH, that even DAP is contemplating leaving the Anwar led Madani government in July.
If a snap election is held in Negeri Sembilan today, PH can't even count on the votes of its own supporters to save itself, much less save Umno.
Also, the reason as to why Umno only managed to win 14 seats in the August 2023 election, is because Umno supporters were deeply frustrated with Zahid Hamidi's leadership of Umno.
It is because Umno supporters were frustrated with Zahid's leadership, that many of them abstained from voting or transferred their votes to PN, and caused Umno to not only lose a number of seats to PN, but only manage to retain many of the 14 seats it won with a very low margin of victory.
If snap elections is held in Negeri Sembilan soon however, it will be seen by Umno supporters as and act or rebellion by Umno Negeri Sembilan against Zahid Hamidi's leadership of Umno.
Thus, the Umno supporters who had abstained from voting for Umno or who had transferred their votes to PN in the August 2023 election, will likely return to Umno, to show their support to the rebellious Umno Negeri Sembilan aduns.
Also, that Umno and PN has shown willingness to cooperate, will likely also not cause a vote split between PN and Umno, that weakened Umno and caused it to be defeated in many areas.
The only thing that will likely cause Umno or the UMNO-PN partnership to lose if a snap election is held in Negeri Sembilan, is if Umno or Umno-PN are seen to have triggered a snap election, solely to satisfy their lust for power and position.
Otherwise, if they manage the perception effectively, and cause a snap election to be called without it being seen as if it was their greed for power that caused it, I would say that Umno or Umno-PN has an above average chance of winning a snap election in Negeri Sembilan.
It will win because 1) PH has lost significant support from its own voter base and 2) Umno voters in Negeri Sembilan will rally behind their Aduns who are seen to be organizing a rebellion against Zahid Hamidi's leadership and 3) cooperation with PN will reduce the vote split issue that caused Umno to lose previously.
According Ilham Centre research chief Yusri Ibrahim, the think tank's finding in the August 2023 state polls clearly indicates that Umno's victories in the 2023 state election were largely aided by PH’s core supporters transferring their votes to BN candidates.
He also added that many of the 14 seats that Umno won were secured by slim margins, ranging from a few dozen to a few hundred votes.
Thus, if Umno stands for election in Negeri Sembilan without PH's backing, not only will it not win any additional seats, it will likely lose many of the seats that it currently possesses.
I disagree strongly with the Iham Centre's position.
In my estimate, Umno will not only retain the seats that it has if snap election is called in Negeri Sembilan, it will likely win more seats.
Why ?
Well, the first reason is because PH is far more unpopular today, even amongst its own supporters, than it was in August 2023.
In August 2023, PH was still fresh from winning the closely fought 2022 General election. Despite its victory, PH was still threatened by the "Green Wave" from PN, which at the time, was still strong enough to topple the Anwar led Madani government.
Thus, in the August 2023 state election, PH's supporters came out with force to support PH, to ensure that PH continued to rule and PN was kept at bay.
Today however, issues such as the temple demolition controversy and the UEC recognition issue has cost PH much of its core support.
It has caused such massive lost of support for PH, that even DAP is contemplating leaving the Anwar led Madani government in July.
If a snap election is held in Negeri Sembilan today, PH can't even count on the votes of its own supporters to save itself, much less save Umno.
Also, the reason as to why Umno only managed to win 14 seats in the August 2023 election, is because Umno supporters were deeply frustrated with Zahid Hamidi's leadership of Umno.
It is because Umno supporters were frustrated with Zahid's leadership, that many of them abstained from voting or transferred their votes to PN, and caused Umno to not only lose a number of seats to PN, but only manage to retain many of the 14 seats it won with a very low margin of victory.
If snap elections is held in Negeri Sembilan soon however, it will be seen by Umno supporters as and act or rebellion by Umno Negeri Sembilan against Zahid Hamidi's leadership of Umno.
Thus, the Umno supporters who had abstained from voting for Umno or who had transferred their votes to PN in the August 2023 election, will likely return to Umno, to show their support to the rebellious Umno Negeri Sembilan aduns.
Also, that Umno and PN has shown willingness to cooperate, will likely also not cause a vote split between PN and Umno, that weakened Umno and caused it to be defeated in many areas.
The only thing that will likely cause Umno or the UMNO-PN partnership to lose if a snap election is held in Negeri Sembilan, is if Umno or Umno-PN are seen to have triggered a snap election, solely to satisfy their lust for power and position.
Otherwise, if they manage the perception effectively, and cause a snap election to be called without it being seen as if it was their greed for power that caused it, I would say that Umno or Umno-PN has an above average chance of winning a snap election in Negeri Sembilan.
It will win because 1) PH has lost significant support from its own voter base and 2) Umno voters in Negeri Sembilan will rally behind their Aduns who are seen to be organizing a rebellion against Zahid Hamidi's leadership and 3) cooperation with PN will reduce the vote split issue that caused Umno to lose previously.
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