by Terence Netto
COMMENT | How to explain the late-developing surge in the popularity of Pakatan Harapan?
The crowds at Harapan ceramah, the ones headlined by reformasi’s indefatigable Pied Piper, Anwar Ibrahim, portend a strength that should carry his coalition to Putrajaya and the premiership of the country.
The tide in favour of Harapan seems strong enough that both goals - Harapan’s occupation of Putrajaya and Anwar’s claim to the prime minister’s post - could well be achieved outright, perhaps even without negotiations with rival coalitions.
Observers say the present mood resembles that felt at the Han Chiang private school in Ayer Itam in Penang on the evening of March 6, 2008, at the opposition’s final ceramah before polling two days later in GE12.
Then, at the conclusion of a mammoth rally on the ample grounds of the school, the mood was rife with the expectation that incumbents BN were going to be swept out of power.
COMMENT | How to explain the late-developing surge in the popularity of Pakatan Harapan?
The crowds at Harapan ceramah, the ones headlined by reformasi’s indefatigable Pied Piper, Anwar Ibrahim, portend a strength that should carry his coalition to Putrajaya and the premiership of the country.
The tide in favour of Harapan seems strong enough that both goals - Harapan’s occupation of Putrajaya and Anwar’s claim to the prime minister’s post - could well be achieved outright, perhaps even without negotiations with rival coalitions.
Observers say the present mood resembles that felt at the Han Chiang private school in Ayer Itam in Penang on the evening of March 6, 2008, at the opposition’s final ceramah before polling two days later in GE12.
Then, at the conclusion of a mammoth rally on the ample grounds of the school, the mood was rife with the expectation that incumbents BN were going to be swept out of power.
Pakatan Harapan rally in Han Chiang school in 2018
Two days later that indeed happened as a coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS, ousted Umno-BN from power as the Penang government, with DAP winning all 19 seats it contested.
This sweep was the most prominent feature of the opposition’s denial of Umno-BN’s supermajority in Parliament on the back of its capture of four state governments - Penang, Selangor, Perak and Kedah – while retaining its hold on Kelantan.
The outcome could hardly have been predicted from the results of a by-election in the Selangor state seat of Ijok in April 2007 caused by the death of the BN incumbent.
At the time, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s stewardship of the nation was looking decidedly shaky as Anwar, newly returned from a sabbatical in the US and England, began to lead a revitalised opposition in preparation for GE12.
Anwar had been released from jail in August 2004 on appeal of his sodomy and abuse of power convictions.
Anwar’s return to the electoral fray galvanised the opposition while Badawi’s premiership, begun in late October 2003 and supercharged by a thumping victory in the general elections of March 2004 (GE11), was drooping from failure to fulfil its early promise and from a general sense of complacency.
The by-election in Ijok, in which PKR was the standard bearer of the opposition, was seen as a bellwether of sorts. BN was represented by a MIC candidate.
The fact that PKR’s candidate was Khalid Ibrahim, who was formerly a prominent Umno member, was indicative of the BN anchor party’s waning appeal.
Two days later that indeed happened as a coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS, ousted Umno-BN from power as the Penang government, with DAP winning all 19 seats it contested.
This sweep was the most prominent feature of the opposition’s denial of Umno-BN’s supermajority in Parliament on the back of its capture of four state governments - Penang, Selangor, Perak and Kedah – while retaining its hold on Kelantan.
The outcome could hardly have been predicted from the results of a by-election in the Selangor state seat of Ijok in April 2007 caused by the death of the BN incumbent.
At the time, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s stewardship of the nation was looking decidedly shaky as Anwar, newly returned from a sabbatical in the US and England, began to lead a revitalised opposition in preparation for GE12.
Anwar had been released from jail in August 2004 on appeal of his sodomy and abuse of power convictions.
Anwar’s return to the electoral fray galvanised the opposition while Badawi’s premiership, begun in late October 2003 and supercharged by a thumping victory in the general elections of March 2004 (GE11), was drooping from failure to fulfil its early promise and from a general sense of complacency.
The by-election in Ijok, in which PKR was the standard bearer of the opposition, was seen as a bellwether of sorts. BN was represented by a MIC candidate.
The fact that PKR’s candidate was Khalid Ibrahim, who was formerly a prominent Umno member, was indicative of the BN anchor party’s waning appeal.
Former Selangor MB Khalid Ibrahim (left)
Still, BN carved out a victory in the face of strenuous campaigning by Anwar and other members of the opposition’s leadership cohort.
Not so invincible
The Ijok victory showed that though the ruling coalition was losing its appeal, it still packed enough of a wallop to defeat a resurgent opposition.
The ruling coalition had been in power for 50 years, and though showing evident signs of decay, retained residual strength to hold on to its possessions.
Seven months on from the Ijok triumph, two massive rallies in Kuala Lumpur, one by polls reform advocate, Bersih, and another by Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf), exposed the soft underbelly of Umno-BN.
A hitherto invincible giant was looking vulnerable.
A royal commission of inquiry into judge-fixing and judicial corruption in January 2008 reinforced a general sense of national malaise.
Two months later, Umno-BN lost its parliamentary supermajority and was ousted from power in four states.
In retrospect, the Umno-BN’s triumphs in the Malacca state polls of last November and the Johor election of March this year, gained on the back of low turnouts amid widespread voter apathy, resemble the coalition’s Ijok by-election victory of April 2007.
They were delusive manifestations of electoral strength and resurgence, camouflaging internal divisions and corruption-borne decay.
Anwar’s energetic stumping for Harapan since Parliament’s dissolution on Oct 10 and the huge crowds it has attracted are parallels of the Bersih rally of Nov 10 and Hindraf gathering of Nov 25, 2007 - tremors adumbrating major convulsions to come.
As ever, the past is prologue to the present.
Still, BN carved out a victory in the face of strenuous campaigning by Anwar and other members of the opposition’s leadership cohort.
Not so invincible
The Ijok victory showed that though the ruling coalition was losing its appeal, it still packed enough of a wallop to defeat a resurgent opposition.
The ruling coalition had been in power for 50 years, and though showing evident signs of decay, retained residual strength to hold on to its possessions.
Seven months on from the Ijok triumph, two massive rallies in Kuala Lumpur, one by polls reform advocate, Bersih, and another by Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf), exposed the soft underbelly of Umno-BN.
A hitherto invincible giant was looking vulnerable.
A royal commission of inquiry into judge-fixing and judicial corruption in January 2008 reinforced a general sense of national malaise.
Two months later, Umno-BN lost its parliamentary supermajority and was ousted from power in four states.
In retrospect, the Umno-BN’s triumphs in the Malacca state polls of last November and the Johor election of March this year, gained on the back of low turnouts amid widespread voter apathy, resemble the coalition’s Ijok by-election victory of April 2007.
They were delusive manifestations of electoral strength and resurgence, camouflaging internal divisions and corruption-borne decay.
Anwar’s energetic stumping for Harapan since Parliament’s dissolution on Oct 10 and the huge crowds it has attracted are parallels of the Bersih rally of Nov 10 and Hindraf gathering of Nov 25, 2007 - tremors adumbrating major convulsions to come.
As ever, the past is prologue to the present.
TERENCE NETTO is a journalist with half a century's experience.
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