Harapan strongholds intact in Klang Valley, but tough battles in 9 swing seats
GE15 | There is no dispute that the Klang Valley is a stronghold for Pakatan Harapan.
It has been ruling Selangor since the political tsunami happened in 2008, with a hold on 20 parliamentary seats in the state and losing only two to BN.
In Kuala Lumpur, Harapan holds all 11 seats, giving the impression that it will again sweep the Klang Valley.
However, there are several unfavourable factors for Harapan candidates, as they defend their fortresses from big figures from Umno/BN, as well as Perikatan Nasional (PN), who have tried to chip away at support.
Based on the recent state polls held in Malacca and Johor, PN has proven to be popular and is able to attract the anti-BN Malay vote from Harapan.
As a result, Harapan component parties, especially PKR and Amanah whose candidates mostly contest in seats with large numbers of Malay constituents, are facing a hard time in defending their swing seats.
Furthermore, in this election, Harapan is facing difficulty to replicate the high morale and anti-BN sentiments of GE14, with voters expressing distrust towards politicians and simply supporting any Harapan candidate, after the Sheraton Move coup.
These concerns have made Harapan more vulnerable in several swing seats.
But on the flip side, Harapan has the advantage of being the Selangor government, and can use state policies and aid programmes as campaign platforms.
Despite the PN threat, its popularity in the Klang Valley is also still high, as evident in large turnouts at its mega ceramah events, despite the heavy rain which has come with the monsoon season.
Harapan leaders including Anwar Ibrahim at a mega ceramah
Maintaining this momentum until the finish line tomorrow could push up turnout rates among outstation voters, including those travelling from the Klang Valley to vote out-of-state, and youth voters.
Of the 33 parliamentary seats in the Klang Valley, electoral data suggests that 23 are considered sure wins for Harapan, nine are in the balance while one constituency might see defeat.
This is the Sabak Bernam seat, in more rural Selangor, which in 2018 was a landslide win for BN’s Mohd Faisah Mohd Fakeh. Faisah has since jumped to Bersatu, and traditional BN voters there are expected to rally behind BN again this time.
The nine swing seats where Harapan is facing a tough fight are: Sungai Buloh, Kuala Selangor, Titiwangsa, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Gombak, Sepang, Kuala Langat and Tanjong Karang.
Umno ministers turning the tide
In Sungai Buloh and Kuala Selangor, BN’s move to field its outgoing ministers Khairy Jamaluddin and Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz in Sungai Buloh and Kuala Selangor has managed to attract voters’ attention, and possibly their support.
In comparison, Harapan candidates R Ramanan and Dzulkefly Ahmad’s campaign strategies seem relatively passive, with Harapan's base support there appearing shakier.
Meanwhile in Titiwangsa, Harapan’s former Federal Territories minister Khalid Samad was sent to face BN’s former finance II minister Johari Abdul Ghani.
Maintaining this momentum until the finish line tomorrow could push up turnout rates among outstation voters, including those travelling from the Klang Valley to vote out-of-state, and youth voters.
Of the 33 parliamentary seats in the Klang Valley, electoral data suggests that 23 are considered sure wins for Harapan, nine are in the balance while one constituency might see defeat.
This is the Sabak Bernam seat, in more rural Selangor, which in 2018 was a landslide win for BN’s Mohd Faisah Mohd Fakeh. Faisah has since jumped to Bersatu, and traditional BN voters there are expected to rally behind BN again this time.
The nine swing seats where Harapan is facing a tough fight are: Sungai Buloh, Kuala Selangor, Titiwangsa, Sungai Besar, Hulu Selangor, Gombak, Sepang, Kuala Langat and Tanjong Karang.
Umno ministers turning the tide
In Sungai Buloh and Kuala Selangor, BN’s move to field its outgoing ministers Khairy Jamaluddin and Tengku Zafrul Abdul Aziz in Sungai Buloh and Kuala Selangor has managed to attract voters’ attention, and possibly their support.
In comparison, Harapan candidates R Ramanan and Dzulkefly Ahmad’s campaign strategies seem relatively passive, with Harapan's base support there appearing shakier.
Meanwhile in Titiwangsa, Harapan’s former Federal Territories minister Khalid Samad was sent to face BN’s former finance II minister Johari Abdul Ghani.
Harapan’s Khalid Samad
The Amanah communications director who was parachuted into the area is facing a tough war as Johari has been prepared for this election since he lost the seat in GE14. Malaysiakini observed that Johari is well-received by the Malay community, who make up the bulk of voters there.
In Sungai Besar, which Harapan won by a tiny margin of 714 votes in 2018, BN fielded controversial Umno division chief Jamal Md Yunos.
Although the Chinese voters had reservations about Jamal’s polarising antics, his chances of winning are still high as he has deep roots in Sungai Buloh and is backed by Umno/BN supporters.
The Amanah communications director who was parachuted into the area is facing a tough war as Johari has been prepared for this election since he lost the seat in GE14. Malaysiakini observed that Johari is well-received by the Malay community, who make up the bulk of voters there.
In Sungai Besar, which Harapan won by a tiny margin of 714 votes in 2018, BN fielded controversial Umno division chief Jamal Md Yunos.
Although the Chinese voters had reservations about Jamal’s polarising antics, his chances of winning are still high as he has deep roots in Sungai Buloh and is backed by Umno/BN supporters.
From left: Sungai Besar hopefuls PN’s Muslimin Yahaya, BN’s Jamal Yunos, Harapan’s Saipolyazan Yusop and GTA’s Asmawar Samat
Like in Sungai Buloh, the decision to drop incumbents for new names has risked Harapan’s chances in Hulu Selangor.
Incumbent MP June Leow Hsiad Hui was dropped after she lost her division chief post in the party election and PKR fielded medical doctor Dr Sathia Prakash Nadarajanand - a fresh face - in the constituency.
Hulu Selangor is a traditional MIC seat and Sathia, who owns a chain of general practitioner clinics, is facing an uneasy battle against MIC candidate T Mohan.
Azmin and Rina putting up a fight
Despite being roundly criticised by Harapan stalwarts for being “traitors”, former Harapan MPs who jumped ship have managed to put up stubborn resistance in the seats they are contesting, including Gombak and Sepang.
In his own bastion of Gombak, Bersatu leader Azmin Ali is facing his former protege and Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari. In this Malay-majority seat, Azmin plays religion and racial cards, and is supported by his ally PAS’ machinery to reject his enemies.
Like in Sungai Buloh, the decision to drop incumbents for new names has risked Harapan’s chances in Hulu Selangor.
Incumbent MP June Leow Hsiad Hui was dropped after she lost her division chief post in the party election and PKR fielded medical doctor Dr Sathia Prakash Nadarajanand - a fresh face - in the constituency.
Hulu Selangor is a traditional MIC seat and Sathia, who owns a chain of general practitioner clinics, is facing an uneasy battle against MIC candidate T Mohan.
Azmin and Rina putting up a fight
Despite being roundly criticised by Harapan stalwarts for being “traitors”, former Harapan MPs who jumped ship have managed to put up stubborn resistance in the seats they are contesting, including Gombak and Sepang.
In his own bastion of Gombak, Bersatu leader Azmin Ali is facing his former protege and Selangor Menteri Besar Amirudin Shari. In this Malay-majority seat, Azmin plays religion and racial cards, and is supported by his ally PAS’ machinery to reject his enemies.
PN’s Azmin Ali
Another Bersatu leader, Rina Harun, has shifted from Titiwangsa to Sepang, where she has stronger influence among the grassroots in the more rural parts of Sepang and polling districts are overwhelmingly Malay.
Not quite a popular figure on the national scale, Rina nevertheless has more appeal than her opponent from Harapan, Amanah’s Aiman Athirah, who appears to find it difficult to attract large numbers to her events. She is also fending off attacks of being a tool for DAP, Amanah’s ally in Harapan.
Another Bersatu leader, Rina Harun, has shifted from Titiwangsa to Sepang, where she has stronger influence among the grassroots in the more rural parts of Sepang and polling districts are overwhelmingly Malay.
Not quite a popular figure on the national scale, Rina nevertheless has more appeal than her opponent from Harapan, Amanah’s Aiman Athirah, who appears to find it difficult to attract large numbers to her events. She is also fending off attacks of being a tool for DAP, Amanah’s ally in Harapan.
PN’s Rina Harun with Muhyiddin Yassin
In Kuala Langat, PKR hopes that its former Kapar MP Manivanan Govin can take the seat, but it is the base camp of Ahmad Yunus Hairi, the Selangor PAS chief and local assemblyperson.
Kuala Langat was won by PKR’s Dr Xavier Jeyakumar in 2018, who later defected.
Last week, when PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang and Azmin made their presence there, a thousand-strong crowd attended the event despite torrential rain, indicating PAS’ strength in the constituency and the state.
Meanwhile, further north in the BN stronghold of Tanjong Karang, schisms within Umno have provided some hope for Muda’s Siti Rahayu Baharin, who is Harapan’s ally.
This is because the local warlord, Selangor BN chief and six-term incumbent Noh Omar was unceremoniously dropped as a candidate, with the local Wanita chief Habibah Mohd Yusof fielded instead.
This has created tension within Umno branches, traditionally foot soldiers in an election campaign, with Noh’s special officer Mohd Rosni Mastol also contesting as an independent candidate as a sign of protest.
PKR likely to regain Ampang
There are some seats that encountered interludes during the campaign period, but Harapan’s strength in these seats is formidable. These include Ampang, Klang and Batu.
PKR is very likely to regain Ampang, pushing out the three-term incumbent MP Zuraida Kamaruddin, who defected and is now Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) president, to fight an uphill battle.
In Kuala Langat, PKR hopes that its former Kapar MP Manivanan Govin can take the seat, but it is the base camp of Ahmad Yunus Hairi, the Selangor PAS chief and local assemblyperson.
Kuala Langat was won by PKR’s Dr Xavier Jeyakumar in 2018, who later defected.
Last week, when PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang and Azmin made their presence there, a thousand-strong crowd attended the event despite torrential rain, indicating PAS’ strength in the constituency and the state.
Meanwhile, further north in the BN stronghold of Tanjong Karang, schisms within Umno have provided some hope for Muda’s Siti Rahayu Baharin, who is Harapan’s ally.
This is because the local warlord, Selangor BN chief and six-term incumbent Noh Omar was unceremoniously dropped as a candidate, with the local Wanita chief Habibah Mohd Yusof fielded instead.
This has created tension within Umno branches, traditionally foot soldiers in an election campaign, with Noh’s special officer Mohd Rosni Mastol also contesting as an independent candidate as a sign of protest.
PKR likely to regain Ampang
There are some seats that encountered interludes during the campaign period, but Harapan’s strength in these seats is formidable. These include Ampang, Klang and Batu.
PKR is very likely to regain Ampang, pushing out the three-term incumbent MP Zuraida Kamaruddin, who defected and is now Parti Bangsa Malaysia (PBM) president, to fight an uphill battle.
PBM’s Zuraida Kamaruddin
Although some Ampang voters have good impressions of Zuraida and agree she has a good service track record, they can’t accept Zuraida’s participation in the Sheraton Move.
In comparison, many voters can’t recognise PKR candidate Rodziah Ismail, who is a state executive councillor, but have made up their minds to vote for her regardless.
DAP’s move to drop the incumbent Klang MP Charles Santiago received public backlash at the start of the campaign, prompting rumours that Klang voters might boycott the election.
However, all this appears to be water under the bridge. Last Wednesday, Charles openly endorsed the DAP candidate V Ganabatirau in a press conference, and urged Klang voters to continue supporting Harapan.
Closer to downtown Kuala Lumpur, Batu has been a seat to watch not only because it has the most number of candidates, consisting of the three main coalitions, GTA, Warisan, Parti Rakyat Malaysia and four rather colourful independent candidates.
The independent candidates are outspoken activist lawyer Siti Kasim, social media influencer Nur Fathiah Syazwana Shaharuddin @ Cleo, Too Cheng Huat - whose name on the ballot paper, Too Gao Lan, is a crude way to say ‘very angry’ in Hokkien, and former PKR vice president Tian Chua.
Although some Ampang voters have good impressions of Zuraida and agree she has a good service track record, they can’t accept Zuraida’s participation in the Sheraton Move.
In comparison, many voters can’t recognise PKR candidate Rodziah Ismail, who is a state executive councillor, but have made up their minds to vote for her regardless.
DAP’s move to drop the incumbent Klang MP Charles Santiago received public backlash at the start of the campaign, prompting rumours that Klang voters might boycott the election.
However, all this appears to be water under the bridge. Last Wednesday, Charles openly endorsed the DAP candidate V Ganabatirau in a press conference, and urged Klang voters to continue supporting Harapan.
Closer to downtown Kuala Lumpur, Batu has been a seat to watch not only because it has the most number of candidates, consisting of the three main coalitions, GTA, Warisan, Parti Rakyat Malaysia and four rather colourful independent candidates.
The independent candidates are outspoken activist lawyer Siti Kasim, social media influencer Nur Fathiah Syazwana Shaharuddin @ Cleo, Too Cheng Huat - whose name on the ballot paper, Too Gao Lan, is a crude way to say ‘very angry’ in Hokkien, and former PKR vice president Tian Chua.
Independent candidate for Batu Tian Chua
Accused of sabotaging Harapan, Chua, who served as Batu MP from 2008 to 2018, announced that he will support PKR president Anwar Ibrahim as the prime minister if he is elected.
However, Harapan supporters are unconvinced. Many blame him for causing confusion among Batu voters, but on balance, Harapan’s candidate, incumbent P Prabakaran is likely to ride the pro-Harapan sentiments again to win.
Accused of sabotaging Harapan, Chua, who served as Batu MP from 2008 to 2018, announced that he will support PKR president Anwar Ibrahim as the prime minister if he is elected.
However, Harapan supporters are unconvinced. Many blame him for causing confusion among Batu voters, but on balance, Harapan’s candidate, incumbent P Prabakaran is likely to ride the pro-Harapan sentiments again to win.
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