Analyst: Not even PAS can stop Bersatu’s “disastrous” GE15 performance
ALTHOUGH some saw PAS as Bersatu’s saving grace for the 15th General Election (GE15), political analyst Azmi Hassan believes their joining hands won’t do much to alter the course of the once-powerful Bumiputera party’s eventual path to oblivion.
“It will be a very difficult journey for Bersatu on polling day this Saturday (Nov 19) because of one particular (factor): UMNO,” said the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow.
“UMNO is currently riding high and they see Bersatu as a traitor as a whole. So, it’s going to be very difficult for Bersatu because I think all the seats that Bersatu is contesting will see them face either Barisan Nasional (BN) or UMNO specifically.”
Bersatu, an UMNO splinter party comprising mainly Bumiputeras, was once part of Pakatan Harapan (PH), the coalition that wrested over Putrajaya during the 2018 polls on the back of intense public backlash against UMNO, corruption and the 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) scandal.
For a relatively new party, Bersatu did considerably well in its first election debut: it would eventually control Perak and Johor – two BN fortresses long held by UMNO through their powerful warlords, grassroots support and strong financial backing – despite not getting the lion’s share of state seats.
Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, founding members of Bersatu (Photo credit: AP)
kt comments: Bersatu cursed by the Minus Touch
However, after Bersatu left PH during the Sheraton Move of 2020, the coalition lost control of Johor to BN/UMNO. And while Bersatu managed to maintain its menteri besar in Perak, he was eventually removed in a vote of no confidence.
In an ironic twist of fate, Bersatu, which joined forces with BN to control Putrajaya, is up against each other during the national polls, with BN going out on their own and Bersatu working together with PAS, Gerakan and small Sabah parties under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) umbrella.
Asked how Bersatu will perform this time around, Azmi said the party, which did poorly during the recent Melaka and Johor state elections, is up for “disaster” when voters cast their ballots on Saturday.
“Whether it will be an end for Bersatu, I’m not sure, but it will be a disastrous result for Bersatu; Bersatu-Mahathir and Bersatu-Muhyiddin are totally different scenarios,” he told FocusM, referring to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Bersatu’s founder and former chairman, and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, the current Bersatu chairman.
“Not so easy”
kt comments: Bersatu cursed by the Minus Touch
However, after Bersatu left PH during the Sheraton Move of 2020, the coalition lost control of Johor to BN/UMNO. And while Bersatu managed to maintain its menteri besar in Perak, he was eventually removed in a vote of no confidence.
In an ironic twist of fate, Bersatu, which joined forces with BN to control Putrajaya, is up against each other during the national polls, with BN going out on their own and Bersatu working together with PAS, Gerakan and small Sabah parties under the Perikatan Nasional (PN) umbrella.
Asked how Bersatu will perform this time around, Azmi said the party, which did poorly during the recent Melaka and Johor state elections, is up for “disaster” when voters cast their ballots on Saturday.
“Whether it will be an end for Bersatu, I’m not sure, but it will be a disastrous result for Bersatu; Bersatu-Mahathir and Bersatu-Muhyiddin are totally different scenarios,” he told FocusM, referring to Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Bersatu’s founder and former chairman, and Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, the current Bersatu chairman.
“Not so easy”
Azmi Hassan (Photo credit: Berita Harian)
And while Bersatu members contesting under PAS’ logo in the Islamist party’s stronghold states of Terengganu and Kelantan can expect to win – as PAS is synonymous to voters in the East Coast states – Azmi said things won’t be so easy in the other states.
“Bersatu members will find it very difficult when they face UMNO candidates,” he reiterated.
But what about PN as a whole? Will it be able to wrest enough seats or political support to get a simple majority (112 MPs in the 222-member lower house)? Azmi was pessimistic about its chances.
“No, I don’t think so. I think it is going to be quite impossible as I cannot foresee Bersatu being a kingmaker, what to speak of getting a simple majority.
“I don’t think they (PN) can be a kingmaker by having a number of seats to be proposed to the next dominant party,” he added. “It’s a bleak prediction but it is reality. Because not only does Bersatu have to compete with BN, but they are up against the opposition too; they have to compete with PH, which is much stronger.”
On the other hand, Azmi said PN can’t expect support from the real kingmaker for GE15 – Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) – since PN decided to contest in four seats in Sarawak, a sour spot for GPS politicians. “It’s the end of their cooperation or need for cooperation.”
Even so, Malaysians can’t rule out seeing Muhyiddin coming back to the limelight as prime minister as there is still a small possibility this might happen, according to Azmi – but it will be the last opportunity for the embattled former prime minister and PN chairman to do so.
“To become prime minister, you need a lot of seats. The best (case scenario) is to have a majority to form the federal government, which I say is quite impossible (for PN). However, there is a small chance that PN gets the (support) of the kingmakers, but I also don’t think that is very possible.
“So, all in all, I think this will be the last chance for Muhyiddin to become a prime minister – again, (a reality) that will be very difficult to (materialise).” – Nov 12, 2022
And while Bersatu members contesting under PAS’ logo in the Islamist party’s stronghold states of Terengganu and Kelantan can expect to win – as PAS is synonymous to voters in the East Coast states – Azmi said things won’t be so easy in the other states.
“Bersatu members will find it very difficult when they face UMNO candidates,” he reiterated.
But what about PN as a whole? Will it be able to wrest enough seats or political support to get a simple majority (112 MPs in the 222-member lower house)? Azmi was pessimistic about its chances.
“No, I don’t think so. I think it is going to be quite impossible as I cannot foresee Bersatu being a kingmaker, what to speak of getting a simple majority.
“I don’t think they (PN) can be a kingmaker by having a number of seats to be proposed to the next dominant party,” he added. “It’s a bleak prediction but it is reality. Because not only does Bersatu have to compete with BN, but they are up against the opposition too; they have to compete with PH, which is much stronger.”
On the other hand, Azmi said PN can’t expect support from the real kingmaker for GE15 – Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) – since PN decided to contest in four seats in Sarawak, a sour spot for GPS politicians. “It’s the end of their cooperation or need for cooperation.”
Even so, Malaysians can’t rule out seeing Muhyiddin coming back to the limelight as prime minister as there is still a small possibility this might happen, according to Azmi – but it will be the last opportunity for the embattled former prime minister and PN chairman to do so.
“To become prime minister, you need a lot of seats. The best (case scenario) is to have a majority to form the federal government, which I say is quite impossible (for PN). However, there is a small chance that PN gets the (support) of the kingmakers, but I also don’t think that is very possible.
“So, all in all, I think this will be the last chance for Muhyiddin to become a prime minister – again, (a reality) that will be very difficult to (materialise).” – Nov 12, 2022
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