Sunday, March 29, 2020

Covid-19 - the WORST is soon to come


Ministry ‘overprepares’ for Covid-19 third wave with extra beds, enhanced MCO

CORONAVIRUS | In light of a possible tsunami of new Covid-19 cases, the Health Ministry has taken proactive measures to increase the number of hospital beds and ramp up its containment efforts.

At a press conference this evening, ministry director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah explained that they were preparing for the eventuality where cases surged to 1,000 per day.

Let us prepare for the worse and hope for the best. It is better for us to overprepare than to underprepare. If we underprepare, it means we are unprepared,” he said.

He shared that the present capacity at hospitals was 5,292 beds.

The ministry is in the midst of creating 600 more beds (above) at the Malaysia Agro Exposition Park Serdang (Maeps).

“If we need (more), the beds are ready,” he said, adding that the facility will be ready by tomorrow.

Global investment bank JP Morgan previously projected that Covid-19 infections in Malaysia would peak at 6,300 cases in mid-April.

The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier), meanwhile, projected a peak of 8,900 cases.

Enhanced MCO is to protect safe zones

The Muslim fasting month of Ramadan is set to begin on April 23 and a month after that will be Hari Raya Aidilfitri, a festive period when millions usually travel back to their hometowns.

Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah 

Hisham admitted it was too early to predict the severity of the Covid-19 outbreak by then but said it will use the enhanced MCO strategy to prevent an exponential rise in cases leading up to the festive period.

The ministry has identified “hotspots” or red zones - a district or area that has recorded more than 41 cases over the past 24 hours.

Should there be a further spike in cases in those zones, an enhanced MCO would be imposed.

Hisham said this strategy would not only isolate hotspots but hopefully also protect other areas from contagion.

“In high hotspot areas, we will enhance the MCO."

“But (for) the green areas, we need to protect them,” he explained, adding that China had employed the same strategy by locking down three cities to protect its capital Beijing.

Thus far the areas under enhanced MCO are two villages in Kluang, Johor.

“Everyone in the ministry is working around the clock to make sure we can deliver and bring down the cases. And perhaps prove that this (6,300-case) prediction is not right,” Hisham said.

The subtext of this frightening news is that the DG of the Health Ministry and his staff are expecting some horrendous eventuality regarding cases of Covid infections.

  • In light of a possible tsunami of new Covid-19 cases
  • Let us prepare for the worse
  • 600 more beds (in addition to the present capacity of 5,292 beds)
  • JP Morgan projected 6,300 cases in mid-April
  • Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier), projected 8,900 cases
  • Enhanced MCO is to protect safe zones
  • Hari Raya Aidilfitri


The ministry has identified “hotspots” or red zones - a district or area that has recorded more than 41 cases over the past 24 hours.

Should there be a further spike in cases in those zones, an enhanced MCO would be imposed.

If you read the above in conjunction with a previous posting on an article by finance-twitter which I re-titled as Rubbery statistics regarding covid-screening of tabligh members you'll now feel as uneasy as I have been.

The finance-twitter article narrated (extracts):

Based on the information from the Health Ministry, only 12,000 people were the tabligh attendees. The remaining 5,084 untested samples could consist of mostly 5 generations of family members, friends or neighbours who might be infected.

What this means is until the Health Director-General discloses the numbers of tabligh participants making up the group of 5,084 people, it’s safe to presume there’re still hundreds – or even thousands – of the religious members who have not come forward to be tested for Coronavirus – depending on the validity of Defense Minister Ismail Sabri or IGP Hamid Bador’s version of the stories.

pre Hari Raya shopping 

But why do we even care how many tabligh members who are left to be tested?

That’s because the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, expected to begin on April 23, would become a fertile month for the Coronavirus to spread again if all the 16,000 Tabligh members and the 5 generations of infections are not identified, tested and quarantined.

Complicating matters, there were cases where the carriers who showed mild or even zero symptoms of Covid-19. Even if 95% of the Tabligh members have surrendered to be tested, the remaining 800 of the ignorant members who thought they didn’t carry the virus could do a massive damage if they belong to this group of carriers who exhibit non-specific symptoms (fever, sore throat, cough, and diarrhea).

I read these news articles together and came to a frightening conclusion that Malaysia is due soon for a shocking eventuality which may even horrendously rivalled that of Italy, Spain and France.

Director General of the MOH, Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah is certainly on the ball in his preparation for the worst - as he succinctly said Let us prepare for the worse and hope for the best. It is better for us to overprepare than to underprepare. If we underprepare, it means we are unprepared”.

In the current pandemic, he is the ONLY consolation for Malaysians.

Yes, the worst is yet to come, and pretty soon too.

Above - Spain's emergency room-beds

compare with what Dr Hisham is preparing at Malaysia Agro Exposition Park Serdang (Maeps) - below

1 comment:

  1. There will be two tsunamis. Health is definitely one and it is upon us. The other will be the economic one.

    Yes the worst is yet to come. Not only for Malaysia but for every country on earth. And when that happens it will be "everyone for himself", or in other words...

    Stuff EU, Go It Alone Brexit,
    Make America Great Again,
    USA-China Trade War,
    NAFTA, TPP dead and buried
    Viet Nam stops exporting rice,
    Or increases its price to balance their budget
    Saudi Arabia crashes price of oil to grow market share

    replicated all over the world at the same time. Restrict free travel, re-negotiate trade deals, return of protectionism etc etc.

    Trump's inward looking stance was ahead of his time, where's the Mexican Wall?

    Let's see if One Belt One Road will survive this.....or China starts to call back its loans....

    Malaysia's 250 billion rescue package is only 10% (25B) actual cash injection by the PN government.

    The rest is bank loan moratorium (175B which is a delay in installment with interest, not loan forgiveness) and EPF money (50B, which is OUR money).

    The 175B loan moratorium is actually a bank bailout by the government. Govt guarantee to back the banks should the NPLs skyrocket, which will happen.

    Why does the government see it necessary to give cash aid to civil servants or pensioners? Their jobs are guaranteed and so are their pension money. I can understand for the health care workers and security folks but why does say a teacher need special cash aid while obeying the MCO? They still get full salary while the restaurant hand and insurance agent have lost their jobs.

    The fact that there are 450,000 teachers or nearly a million voters if you count their spouses may be a clue.

    It is the private sector worker, retirees, those living on their savings, the SMEs, the daily wage earners etc that need financial aid. But they get only a small amount.