Ong: Harapan fall in N Sembilan may seal Madani govt's fate, lead to early GE

Ong: Harapan fall in N Sembilan may seal Madani govt's fate, lead to early GE

Alyaa Alhadjri
Published: Jul 30, 2026 6:00 PM
Updated: 9:16 PM


INTERVIEW | A Pakatan Harapan defeat in the Negeri Sembilan election could prove to be the final nail in the coffin for the Madani government, according to former DAP lawmaker Ong Kian Ming.

He predicted such an outcome would destabilise cooperation between Harapan and BN at the federal level, potentially paving the way for an early general election.

“For now, I do not think it is very plausible for the Madani government to remain stable and continue governing until the end of 2027.

“This is because the political hostility arising from what happened in Johor, and what follows from it, will likely create tensions within the cabinet and make it difficult for the government to implement any substantive policies moving forward,” Ong (above) told KiniTV’s “Kini Jelas” programme.

Ong said the repercussions could be particularly severe if senior DAP leaders, including party secretary-general Anthony Loke, who is defending his Chennah seat, are defeated in Negeri Sembilan.

DAP sec-gen Anthony Loke meeting locals in his constituency


He said growing unhappiness among DAP members over the party’s cooperation with BN could trigger calls for DAP to withdraw its representatives from the federal government.

“I think one consequence for DAP is that when delegates cast their votes at the special congress on Aug 16, there is a greater possibility that they will vote for DAP leaders to resign from the cabinet.

“This would mean that five ministers and seven deputy ministers would step down within a specified period,” he said.

Ong said DAP lawmakers could continue backing Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as government backbenchers, but the withdrawal of the party’s ministers would leave the cabinet weakened and make policymaking increasingly difficult.

“We would then have to see what political moves are made, particularly by Umno leaders, after such a development,” he added.


Scale of defeat matters

International Islamic University Malaysia political scientist Syaza Shukri, however, said a defeat for Loke would not necessarily force him to step down as DAP secretary-general.

“I don’t think he would be automatically forced to resign. Maybe the pressure might be there given it would be close to the election. But I think it also depends if, say, DAP does relatively well as a whole, then we cannot discount his role in leading the campaign.

“And also, it might be too disruptive to change leadership now when GE16 (16th general election) is coming. I would say it depends on the scale of the hypothetical defeat in Negeri Sembilan,” she told Malaysiakini.

Separately, political analyst Wong Chin Huat argued there would be no reason for Loke to resign as DAP secretary-general.

Political analyst Wong Chin Huat


“He (Loke) may choose to resign as DAP state chair. But there is absolutely no reason for him to resign as the national secretary-general.

“Resignation to undertake responsibility for electoral defeat is a good thing, but sometimes the need to keep the leadership team intact for the immediate next battle may take priority,” he added.


Linggi a key indicator

Apart from Loke, Ong said the outcome in Linggi, where Negeri Sembilan PKR chairperson Aminuddin Harun is contesting after moving from Sikamat, would be a key indicator of Harapan’s chances of retaining the state.

“I think that if Tok Min (Aminuddin) loses in Linggi, it would mean that Harapan has no chance of forming the Negeri Sembilan government. It would also indicate that Harapan is likely to lose most of the other Malay-majority seats.

“Therefore, my prediction that Perikatan Nasional and BN will form the Negeri Sembilan government would become a reality,” he said.

Ong also pointed to Anwar’s speeches on the campaign trail, saying the Harapan chairperson appeared to be piling pressure on BN by highlighting alleged scandals involving Felda.

He added that Anwar’s promise to release the royal commission of inquiry report on Tabung Haji, which was officially made public yesterday, could also be seen as part of a broader political offensive against Umno.


GE16 end of this year?

However, Ong said a strong showing by BN and PN in Negeri Sembilan would reinforce Umno’s belief that working with the opposition coalition could yield electoral gains.

“They (Umno) have a way to ensure their interests are protected. If they are unhappy, they could resign from the cabinet, or take a position that leaves Anwar with no other choice but to remove BN from the cabinet.

“That could then lead to the dissolution of Parliament and the holding of the 16th general election,” said Ong.

Ong predicted GE16 could be held by the end of this year, arguing that the Madani government may struggle to withstand the political fallout of a Negeri Sembilan defeat.

He said Anwar could ultimately be forced to seek a fresh mandate if the government lost sufficient support to maintain cabinet stability or secure the passage of the 2027 federal budget, which is due to be tabled in November.