Analysts: State polls acid test for Umno-DAP alliance
Umno’s fall from being the leader of a BN-led government to its new role as one of 19 parties in Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Madani administration raised questions about the party’s survival.
Having been reduced to only 26 Parliament seats in the 15th general election last year, it was clear the party had lost a significant number of its core supporters.
What is less clear, including to party members, is how Umno can stand its ground with new allies, particularly former archrivals, the DAP, which they had previously accused of harbouring an “anti-Malay” agenda - especially in the upcoming six state elections.
In his policy speech, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi tried to assuage supporters, reaffirming that the party is no “political chameleon” ever ready to change its colours.
However, Johor Umno Youth chief Noor Azleen Ambros in debating Zahid's speech on Saturday, warned there will be no reason for the Malays to choose Umno if it can only play a supporting role.
Johor Umno Youth chief Noor Azleen Ambros
Noor Azleen also stressed that Umno must make clear that their position in the government is based on an alignment of political interests and not the party's principles and values.
Speaking to Malaysiakini, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia geostrategist Azmi Hassan said while Umno leaders understand the need to work with their former enemy, there is still a sense of it being taboo among the grassroots.
Azmi said Umno leaders had also missed the opportunity to use the AGM as a platform to show that they are “stronger than the DAP” when defending core values, even when the Harapan component has the most seats in parliament.
“This is to give the impression that even as new allies, Umno can ‘control’ the DAP. I felt that was the missing narrative, except for in some parts of the Umno Youth chief's (Dr Akmal Saleh) speech,” said Azmi.
Tough challenge
Meanwhile, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia analyst Kartini Aboo Talib said the ideological differences were a significant obstacle towards Umno-DAP cooperation.
"Umno and Anwar face a tough challenge to convince Umno Malays who are very nationalistic to support DAP which is viewed as pro-socialists," she said.
The six states are due for elections - Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu.
They are due to dissolve their respective state legislatures within the next several weeks, meaning time is short for Umno leaders to convince their grassroots to support the Madani government at the state level.
Noor Azleen also stressed that Umno must make clear that their position in the government is based on an alignment of political interests and not the party's principles and values.
Speaking to Malaysiakini, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia geostrategist Azmi Hassan said while Umno leaders understand the need to work with their former enemy, there is still a sense of it being taboo among the grassroots.
Azmi said Umno leaders had also missed the opportunity to use the AGM as a platform to show that they are “stronger than the DAP” when defending core values, even when the Harapan component has the most seats in parliament.
“This is to give the impression that even as new allies, Umno can ‘control’ the DAP. I felt that was the missing narrative, except for in some parts of the Umno Youth chief's (Dr Akmal Saleh) speech,” said Azmi.
Tough challenge
Meanwhile, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia analyst Kartini Aboo Talib said the ideological differences were a significant obstacle towards Umno-DAP cooperation.
"Umno and Anwar face a tough challenge to convince Umno Malays who are very nationalistic to support DAP which is viewed as pro-socialists," she said.
The six states are due for elections - Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Penang, Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu.
They are due to dissolve their respective state legislatures within the next several weeks, meaning time is short for Umno leaders to convince their grassroots to support the Madani government at the state level.
Kartini said clashes with PAS and Bersatu - who have been actively wooing not only Umno’s former supporters but also leaders to join them - will put to the test not only support for Umno but also Zahid's leadership of the party.
She said Zahid only appears to be a strong party leader now because he has purged away his rivals and critics.
“He may appear strong in Umno, but they are only among those who want to see the unity government remain strong. The majority of the Malays (not in Umno) are still against him.
“The ones left in Umno are mostly ‘yes men’,” she claimed.
Meanwhile, Azmi believed that the purge - which saw leaders like Khairy Jamaluddin axed - placed Zahid on solid footing. Despite this, he believes Zahid still needs Umno to perform strongly in the state polls.
"Umno must win as many seats as possible. More importantly, if any Pakatan Harapan candidates win, it must be proven that Umno voters had contributed to their victory,” he said.
'The Najib factor’
Aside from announcing various initiatives addressing issues that Umno leaders and delegates raised in their speeches, Zahid also reminded members that he has not forgotten their demand to release former premier Najib Abdul Razak from prison.
Bower Group Asia deputy managing director Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani said Zahid’s move to invoke the spirit of Najib was mainly aimed at addressing allegations that he had forgotten the former party president and was solely at Anwar’s behest.
“It was an attempt by Zahid to show that support for him is support for Najib.
“While it may appease those in the party, it is unlikely to energise party grassroots and pull those who have left the party,” he said.
“Unless Najib is released from jail, it is unlikely that Zahid will be able to pull votes for the party in the state elections.
“Despite the pomp and pageantry at the party general assembly, Zahid is still a divisive figure in Umno,” said Asrul Hadi.
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