Who will be PM after GE15?

Who will be PM after GE15?



From Lim Teck Ghee


In an earlier article, I had identified moral outrage as being the gamechanger in the general election.

When analysing the key factors that can influence the voter in the polling booth, one can approach it from different angles.

Among the possible factors are those that relate to the state of the economy and government. Hence the concern over rising prices and inflation, corruption and other abuses; perception of neglect; and feelings of deprivation or marginalisation all play a role in voter choice.

Opinions of what the competing parties stand for in their policies and are likely to accomplish are, of course, also important. This is why time and effort are given by parties to election manifestos and publicising the superiority of their policies over those of rival parties.

But perhaps the important consideration that influences voters – more than election manifestos and policy promises – apart from moral outrage, is the judgment on the personality and the associated pull power of the top leaders.

In GE15, voters will be evaluating the leadership of the four competing coalitions – Anwar Ibrahim and Rafizi Ramli from PKR/PH; Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Najib Razak and Ismail Sabri Yaakob from Umno; Muhyiddin Yassin and Hadi Awang from Bersatu/PAS; and Dr Mahathir Mohamad from Pejuang/GTA.

Pull power relates to the political leader’s personality, image and sense of confidence, trust and respect that is given out. This perception of personality and image has been acknowledged to have a large influence in the determination of voter preference in other countries, including in advanced democracies. It may also apply to the latest election in Malaysia.

Rejection of Mahathir

The unanimous opinion of election watchers is that among the prominent Malay leaders battling for the top position in the country, Mahathir is a spent force. He had been regarded earlier by some analysts as playing an important role in the election tsunami of 2018, which swept Pakatan Harapan to power.

In this election, there is growing evidence that his fall in status – described as “from hero to zero” arising from his role in the Sheraton Move and aftermath that brought down the PH government – will be confirmed beyond doubt if he loses his Langkawi seat.

Zahid, Umno’s negative gamechanger

Not many years ago, when Zahid was the newly appointed deputy prime minister, a well-regarded columnist had described him in the following way: “The Umno crowd sees him as a people’s politician, someone who is completely without airs and whom the common folk relate to. His handshakes are firm, he looks people in the eye and he does not hesitate to give friends and long-time associates man hugs.”

No longer now. Some observers now see Zahid as a gamechanger, but in the negative sense, for Umno and BN. Increasingly on the defensive from his corruption and financial scandal cases, he is seen as a liability who is responsible for the internal party divisions which have led to prominent leaders not fielded in the coming elections speaking out and smearing his leadership.

BN’s election communications director, Shabery Cheek, during the most recent coalition election update on Nov 11, claimed that BN was confident of winning 112 seats or more, thus securing a majority on its own in the 222-seat Parliament. Few within the Umno camp are as optimistic as Shabery.

Najib and his “Bossku” following appear to have lost influence and support going into the elections with dwindling recent participation in his FB page showing up as an indicator. If the anti-Zahid and anti-kleptocrat movement within Umno gathers greater momentum, it is possible that the entire BN campaign will suffer badly.

The current list of BN candidates includes 43 from MCA, 10 from MIC, and four candidates from parties considered as friends of BN. Unconfirmed reports are of a drying up of the local war chests that have enabled BN to secure grassroots support during past elections. BN election bunting, banners and other paraphernalia previously conspicuous no longer dominate the streets today. If these pointers are correct, there may be a very small handful of successful BN non-Malay candidates emerging from GE15 and fewer than expected successful Umno candidates.

Dark horse Muhyiddin as PM

Bersatu leader Muhyiddin’s public standing appears to have remained stable despite his role in bringing down the PH government, and key role in giving birth to a party composed of political frogs. Bolstered by Hadi and PAS, his party is increasingly seen as the Malay party of choice in the northern and east coast states.

Muhyiddin, who has taken a strong stand against the kleptocrats, also appears to be the Malay leader of choice among the Malay younger generation who could provide the winning edge for the Perikatan Nasional coalition in the semi-urban constituencies where they comprise a sizable population.

The combination of winning seats in rural and semi-urban areas – even without any big win in the urban constituencies – may be enough to make PN the main player in any hung Parliament. If PH is unable to make inroads into what appears a distinct fall in Malay support for Umno, Muhyiddin may well return to the prime ministership position that he was pushed out from in August last year.

Is Anwar’s wait over soon?

Anwar appears to be the star among the competing Malay leaders in GE15. Despite a fall in his personal popularity and concern with his poor judgment in the controversies and other developments that have affected PKR and the larger PH coalition, he is widely seen by the urban and non-Malay electorate as the Malay leader most capable of leading the nation to the “New Malaysia” which many voters yearn for – a mission which previous governments have failed to bring about.

For now, Anwar’s, and his deputy Rafizi’s concerns will be the extent of confidence and trust which the Malay electorate has in the two leaders. If the two are able to generate even a modest minority of Malay support for PKR on election day, PH can end up as the biggest winner in GE15.



Lim Teck Ghee is a public policy analyst and an FMT reader.